Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-29 22:00:17 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.425 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.78 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +9.1B strong suppression
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.72% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose
Breadth	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Breadth 54% — mixed participation
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +9.3% growth optimism · real yield 2.09% restrictive
news_sentiment	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	AI news sentiment unavailable
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.54 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.37 normal, SPY/TNX -0.74 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.70 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.62 dealer stress
Inflation	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 73/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 73 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.425) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.425; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 54% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.18)

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $755.47 | 50 SMA $701.75 | 200 SMA $680.61 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $754.03
QQQ: $737.71 | 50 SMA $650.06 | 200 SMA $617.05 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.93
IWM: $290.03 | 50 SMA $269.15 | 200 SMA $253.62 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $290.94
VIX: 15.32 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.453%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$755.47	71.16	29.7	$754.03	Bearish	0.45
QQQ	$737.71	72.36	52.1	$730.93	Bearish	0.18
IWM	$290.03	62.70	57.6	$290.94	Bearish	2.54

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.32	40.32	12.6	$10.52	Neutral	1.34
TNX	44.53	55.16	80.7	-	-	-
GLD	$416.90	30.24	22.8	$385.00	Bearish	0.20
DXY	98.94	68.88	33.6	-	-	-
SLV	$68.20	44.61	28.9	$50.00	Bearish	0.35

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.425
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.13B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.93%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.1%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.2%
Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
Mag 7 Concentration: 32.4%
Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Technology	80.0%	0/0
Real Estate	78.6%	0/0
Communication Services	60.0%	0/0
Industrials	56.7%	0/0
Consumer Staples	52.9%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	52.5%	0/0
Financials	50.7%	0/0
Materials	45.8%	0/0
Health Care	44.4%	0/0
Energy	31.6%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: FALLING
WTI Crude: $87.76 (5d: -9.2%)
Brent Crude: $91.70 | Spread: $3.94
RBOB Gasoline: $3.0500/gal
Heating Oil: $3.5100/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.78/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $56.29
UNG (Nat Gas): $11.93

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.535	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.37	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.745	stretched
SPY / Oil	-0.699	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.22
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,742,238.0
0DTE Put Volume: 2,924,434.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.78 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $504.3B
Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $755.47)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.45%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
DXY: 98.94
Growth vs Value: 0.98
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $11.7B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,862B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,213B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
Global Net Liquidity: $17,240B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $73,559 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.09% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
[WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.78/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $129.09 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] SPY (750.28) reclaimed ZGL (732.58) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.

Seasonality

Current Month: May
Average Return: +1.18%
Median Return: +1.61%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Chicago PMI(May): 62.7 vs Est. 50.6 (BEAT) | Prev: 49.2
Goods Trade Balance(Apr): -82.40 vs Est. -86.70 (BEAT) | Prev: -85.30
Retail Inventories Ex Auto(Apr): 0.6% | Prev: 0.6%

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.8% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] Iranian hard-liners seek to undermine potential deal with US - NYT Time: 2026-05-30T01:45:00.755Z

[2] FDD outlines six conditions for future Iran nuclear deal Time: 2026-05-30T01:34:17.059Z

[3] US has 'global obligation' to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapon Time: 2026-05-30T01:23:26.488Z

[4] USNAVCENT and UKMTO issue advisory on military operations in Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-05-30T00:23:09.719Z

[5] US has not confirmed Iran placed mines in Strait of Hormuz - NBC Time: 2026-05-29T23:56:52.394Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 90 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 6.7% of normal
Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 0
Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 23.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $18.5 billion/day economic cost