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2026-W22

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-29 12:54:19 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (6 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED DIX 0.425 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.84 call-heavy
Gamma 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED GEX +9.1B strong suppression
Credit 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.72% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose
Breadth 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED Breadth 56% — broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations ⚪ NEUTRAL — Copper/Gold +8.9% growth optimism · real yield 2.09% restrictive
news_sentiment ⚪ NEUTRAL — AI news sentiment unavailable
Correlations ⚪ NEUTRAL — SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.38 normal, SPY/TNX -0.75 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.70 stretched
Volatility ⚪ NEUTRAL — VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.61 dealer stress
Inflation ⚪ NEUTRAL — Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching
carry_risk 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity ⚪ NEUTRAL — Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — dark pool, gamma, and credit align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 75/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 75 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.425) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.425; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 56% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.

  • Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.18)

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $757.05 | 50 SMA $701.75 | 200 SMA $680.61 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $754.05
  • QQQ: $738.46 | 50 SMA $650.06 | 200 SMA $617.05 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.92
  • IWM: $290.22 | 50 SMA $269.15 | 200 SMA $253.62 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $282.34
  • VIX: 15.26 — sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.434%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL γ-Sent PCR
SPY $757.05 71.16 29.7 $754.05 Bearish 0.49
QQQ $738.46 72.36 52.1 $730.92 Bearish 0.50
IWM $290.22 62.70 57.6 $282.34 Neutral 0.59

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL γ-Sent PCR
VIX 15.26 40.32 12.6 $10.52 Neutral 1.39
TNX 44.34 55.16 80.7 - - -
GLD $419.01 30.24 22.8 $406.51 Bearish 0.39
DXY 98.86 67.00 33.9 - - -
SLV $68.52 44.61 28.9 $50.00 Neutral 0.51

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.425
  • DIX Signal: Neutral
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.13B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.93%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.3%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 60.4%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 43.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Real Estate 78.6% 0/0
Technology 76.9% 0/0
Consumer Staples 61.8% 0/0
Communication Services 60.0% 0/0
Industrials 59.7% 0/0
Financials 56.7% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 54.2% 0/0
Health Care 50.0% 0/0
Materials 45.8% 0/0
Energy 31.6% 0/0
Utilities 16.7% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: FALLING
  • WTI Crude: $86.56 (5d: -10.4%)
  • Brent Crude: $90.40 | Spread: $3.84
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
  • Heating Oil: $3.4600/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.16/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $56.28
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $12.09

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.551 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.382 normal
SPY / TNX -0.748 stretched
SPY / Oil -0.699 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.74
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,254,775.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 1,884,789.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.84 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $313.4B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $753 (Spot: $757.05)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.43%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.85 (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.86
  • Growth vs Value: 0.98
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,873B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,210B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $17,248B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $73,948 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.09% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
  • [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.16/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $126.89 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [INFO] SPY (750.28) reclaimed ZGL (732.58) — volatility dampening resumes.
  • [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
  • [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
  • [WARNING] SPY (738.56) dropped below ZGL (738.98) — expect amplified downside moves.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: May
  • Average Return: +1.18%
  • Median Return: +1.61%
  • Hit Rate: 80%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Chicago PMI(May): 62.7 vs Est. 50.6 (BEAT) | Prev: 49.2
  • Goods Trade Balance(Apr): -82.40 vs Est. -86.70 (BEAT) | Prev: -85.30
  • Retail Inventories Ex Auto(Apr): 0.6% | Prev: 0.6%

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
  • Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
  • Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 90 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 6.7% of normal
  • Throughput: 6.0% of normal (0.6M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 404
  • Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS95 (+90% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost