Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-29 11:30:42 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.425 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.84 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +9.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.71% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 55% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +9.9% growth optimism · real yield 2.09% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.38 normal, SPY/TNX -0.75 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.70 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 15.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.48 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 73/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 73 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.425) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.425; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 55% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.4 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.18)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $757.19 | 50 SMA $701.75 | 200 SMA $680.61 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $754.04
- QQQ: $738.83 | 50 SMA $650.06 | 200 SMA $617.05 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.59
- IWM: $289.91 | 50 SMA $269.15 | 200 SMA $253.62 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $287.66
- VIX: 15.41 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.430%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $757.19 | 71.16 | 29.7 | $754.04 | Neutral | 0.50 |
| QQQ | $738.83 | 72.36 | 52.1 | $730.59 | Bearish | 0.49 |
| IWM | $289.91 | 62.70 | 57.6 | $287.66 | Neutral | 0.67 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.41 | 40.32 | 12.6 | $10.52 | Neutral | 1.35 |
| TNX | 44.30 | 55.16 | 80.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $420.18 | 30.24 | 22.8 | $406.48 | Bearish | 0.34 |
| DXY | 98.82 | 66.03 | 34.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.71 | 44.61 | 28.9 | $50.00 | Bearish | 0.49 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.425
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.13B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 55.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 491
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 92.6% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 76.9% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 57.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 53.4% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 49.1% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 46.3% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 39.1% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 17.2% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $87.03 (5d: -9.9%)
- Brent Crude: $90.52 | Spread: $3.49
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9500/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $44.71/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.16
- UNG (Nat Gas): $12.03
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.553 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.379 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.746 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.703 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,673,836.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,399,806.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.84 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $232.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $757.19)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.43%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.84 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.82
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,873B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,210B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,248B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $73,618 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.09% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $44.71/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $127.71 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (750.28) reclaimed ZGL (732.58) — volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.17%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Chicago PMI(May): 62.7 vs Est. 50.6 (BEAT) | Prev: 49.2
- Goods Trade Balance(Apr): -82.40 vs Est. -86.70 (BEAT) | Prev: -85.30
- Retail Inventories Ex Auto(Apr): 0.6% | Prev: 0.6%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 90 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 22 of 60 normal daily — 3.6% of normal
- Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 23.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS145 (+190% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost