Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-29 08:31:13 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 83% (5 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.424 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.12 put-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +8.2B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.71% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Breadth 57% — broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +10.4% growth optimism · real yield 2.10% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.38 normal, SPY/TNX -0.75 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.71 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.44 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 32 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and breadth) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 75/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 75 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.424) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.424; GEX positive at 8.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.18)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $756.03 | 50 SMA $701.75 | 200 SMA $680.61 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.55
- QQQ: $736.49 | 50 SMA $650.06 | 200 SMA $617.05 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.51
- IWM: $291.98 | 50 SMA $269.15 | 200 SMA $253.62 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $282.28
- VIX: 15.79 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.441%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $756.03 | 71.16 | 29.7 | $732.55 | Neutral | 0.73 |
| QQQ | $736.49 | 72.36 | 52.1 | $730.51 | Neutral | 0.73 |
| IWM | $291.98 | 62.70 | 57.6 | $282.28 | Bearish | 0.49 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.79 | 40.32 | 12.6 | $10.52 | Neutral | 1.32 |
| TNX | 44.41 | 55.16 | 80.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $414.86 | 30.24 | 22.8 | $360.00 | Neutral | 0.78 |
| DXY | 99.04 | 71.02 | 33.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.17 | 44.61 | 28.9 | $50.00 | Neutral | 0.58 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.424
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.17B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 60.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 75.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 64.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 52.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 52.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 37.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 20.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $87.69 (5d: -9.2%)
- Brent Crude: $91.19 | Spread: $3.50
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9700/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $44.75/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.95
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.89
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.553 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.376 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.746 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.709 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.12 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $441.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $756.03)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.44%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.86 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.04
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.53% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.25%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 32/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,873B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,210B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,248B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $73,193 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.10% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.53% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $44.75/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $130.78 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (750.28) reclaimed ZGL (732.58) — volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.16%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Chicago PMI(May): ⏳ Pending
- Goods Trade Balance(Apr): -82.40 vs Est. -86.70 (BEAT) | Prev: -85.30
- Retail Inventories Ex Auto(Apr): 0.6% | Prev: 0.6%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (17):
[1] Germany annual CPI inflation declines to 2.6% in May vs. 2.8% expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-annual-cpi-inflation-declines-to-26-in-may-vs-28-expected-202605291205 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 12:05:19 Z
[2] Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.6%, below expectations (2.8%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-consumer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-26-below-expectations-28-in-may-202605291200 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 12:00:51 Z
[3] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.7%, below expectations (2.8%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-came-in-at-27-below-expectations-28-in-may-202605291200 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 12:00:50 Z
[4] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.6%, below expectations (2.8%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-came-in-at-26-below-expectations-28-in-may-202605291200 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 12:00:42 Z
[5] South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) down to 15.16B in April from previous 31.87B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-trade-balance-in-rands-down-to-1516b-in-april-from-previous-3187b-202605291200 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 12:00:40 Z
[6] Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.1%) in May: Actual (-0.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-consumer-price-index-mom-below-expectations-01-in-may-actual-02-202605291200 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 12:00:04 Z
[7] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.7% below forecasts (2.8%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-came-in-at-27-below-forecasts-28-in-may-202605291200 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 12:00:03 Z
[8] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) below expectations (0.2%) in May: Actual (-0.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-below-expectations-02-in-may-actual-01-202605291200 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 12:00:03 Z
[9] Brazil Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) above expectations (1%) in 1Q: Actual (1.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-gross-domestic-product-qoq-above-expectations-1-in-1q-actual-11-202605291200 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 12:00:01 Z
[10] Brazil Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (1.8%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-gross-domestic-product-yoy-meets-forecasts-18-in-1q-202605291200 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 12:00:01 Z
[11] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovers further to near $4,530 amid falling Oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-recovers-further-to-near-4-530-amid-falling-oil-prices-202605291143 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 11:43:48 Z
[12] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Sets for a strong weekly close as RBNZ calls for quick hikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-sets-for-a-strong-weekly-close-as-rbnz-calls-for-quick-hikes-202605291137 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 11:37:36 Z
[13] India M3 Money Supply unchanged at 12% in May 11 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-m3-money-supply-unchanged-at-12-in-may-11-202605291137 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 11:37:36 Z
[14] Euro remains capped below 1.1660 ahead of German inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-capped-below-11660-ahead-of-german-inflation-data-202605291131 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 11:31:11 Z
[15] India Bank Loan Growth up to 16.2% in May 4 from previous 16% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-bank-loan-growth-up-to-162-in-may-4-from-previous-16-202605291130 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 11:30:11 Z
[16] India FX Reserves, USD fell from previous $688.89B to $681.38B in May 18 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-fx-reserves-usd-fell-from-previous-68889b-to-68138b-in-may-18-202605291130 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 11:30:07 Z
[17] New Zealand Dollar: Resistance test as RBNZ turns hawkish - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-resistance-test-as-rbnz-turns-hawkish-bbh-202605291122 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 11:22:02 Z
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] IRGC-affiliated outlet says possible US-Iran memo not finalized Time: 2026-05-29T12:29:08.902Z
[2] Iran state broadcaster says 24 ships crossed Hormuz in 24 hours Time: 2026-05-29T12:12:47.876Z
[3] Hardline cleric warns diplomats against shaking hands with Khamenei's killers Time: 2026-05-29T12:09:05.682Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 90 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 6.7% of normal
- Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 247
- Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS127 (+154% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost