Skip to content
← Archive

2026-W22

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-29 06:00:21 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 83% (5 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool 🔴 BEARISH ✗ DIVERGENT DIX 0.424 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.12 put-heavy
Gamma 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED GEX +8.2B strong suppression
Credit 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.71% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose
Breadth 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED Breadth 57% — broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations ⚪ NEUTRAL — Copper/Gold +11.2% growth optimism · real yield 2.10% restrictive
news_sentiment ⚪ NEUTRAL — AI news sentiment unavailable
Correlations ⚪ NEUTRAL — SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.38 normal, SPY/TNX -0.75 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.71 stretched
Volatility ⚪ NEUTRAL — VIX 15.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.47 dealer stress
Inflation ⚪ NEUTRAL — Stagflation score 32 — moderate, watching
carry_risk 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity ⚪ NEUTRAL — Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and breadth) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 75/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 75 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.424) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.424; GEX positive at 8.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.7 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.

  • Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.18)

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $755.52 | 50 SMA $700.07 | 200 SMA $680.01 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.59
  • QQQ: $736.60 | 50 SMA $647.42 | 200 SMA $616.24 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $711.45
  • IWM: $291.92 | 50 SMA $268.31 | 200 SMA $253.26 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $280.96
  • VIX: 15.74 — sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.455%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL γ-Sent PCR
SPY $755.52 65.84 31.7 $732.59 Bearish 0.35
QQQ $736.60 69.67 57.1 $711.45 Bearish 0.29
IWM $291.92 54.32 62.1 $280.96 Bearish 0.28

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL γ-Sent PCR
VIX 15.74 44.40 14.7 $10.52 Neutral 1.33
TNX 44.55 60.06 79.4 - - -
GLD $412.90 24.63 23.7 $340.00 Neutral 1.05
DXY 99.00 61.41 35.3 - - -
SLV $68.41 45.72 29.6 $64.45 Neutral 0.66

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.424
  • DIX Signal: Neutral
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.17B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.93%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.6%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 60.4%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 43.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Real Estate 96.4% 0/0
Technology 75.4% 0/0
Industrials 64.2% 0/0
Consumer Staples 61.8% 0/0
Communication Services 60.0% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 52.5% 0/0
Financials 52.2% 0/0
Health Care 50.0% 0/0
Materials 37.5% 0/0
Energy 31.6% 0/0
Utilities 20.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: FALLING
  • WTI Crude: $88.53 (5d: -8.1%)
  • Brent Crude: $92.48 | Spread: $3.95
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1100/gal
  • Heating Oil: $3.5600/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $48.39/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $56.95
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $11.89

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.553 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.376 normal
SPY / TNX -0.746 stretched
SPY / Oil -0.709 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.74
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,757,090.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,093,844.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.12 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $441.5B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $755.52)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.46%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.00
  • Growth vs Value: 0.97
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.53% (Above Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.25%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 32/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,873B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,210B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $17,248B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $73,636 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.10% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
  • [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.53% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $48.39/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $130.78 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [INFO] SPY (750.28) reclaimed ZGL (732.58) — volatility dampening resumes.
  • [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
  • [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: May
  • Average Return: +1.16%
  • Median Return: +1.61%
  • Hit Rate: 80%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Core PCE Price Index(MoM)(Apr): 0.2% vs Est. 0.3% (MISS) | Prev: 0.3%
  • Core PCE Price Index(YoY)(Apr): 3.3% vs Est. 3.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.2%
  • Crude Oil Inventories: -3.327 vs Est. -3.800 (BEAT) | Prev: -7.863
  • Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(Apr): 7.9% vs Est. 4.0% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.3%
  • GDP(QoQ)(Q1): 1.6% vs Est. 2.0% (MISS) | Prev: 0.5%
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 211 (BEAT) | Prev: 210
  • New Home Sales(Apr): 622 vs Est. 661 (MISS) | Prev: 663
  • 7-Year Note Auction: 4.290% | Prev: 4.175%
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): 3.8% vs Est. 4.3% (MISS) | Prev: 4.3%
  • Building Permits(Apr): 1.423 vs Est. 1.442 (MISS) | Prev: 1.363
  • Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,786 vs Est. 1,780 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,771
  • Core Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(Apr): 1.1% vs Est. 0.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.1%
  • Core PCE Prices(Q1): 4.40% vs Est. 4.30% (BEAT) | Prev: 2.70%
  • Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -2.794 | Prev: -1.604
  • Fed's Balance Sheet: 6,704 | Prev: 6,714
  • GDP Price Index(QoQ)(Q1): 3.5% vs Est. 3.6% (MISS) | Prev: 3.6%
  • New Home Sales(MoM)(Apr): -6.2% | Prev: 3.4%
  • PCE Price index(YoY)(Apr): 3.8% vs Est. 3.8% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.5%
  • PCE price index(MoM)(Apr): 0.4% vs Est. 0.5% (MISS) | Prev: 0.7%
  • Personal Spending(MoM)(Apr): 0.5% vs Est. 0.5% (INLINE) | Prev: 1.0%

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
  • Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
  • Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (30):

[1] Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (3.2%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-yoy-meets-forecasts-32-in-may-202605290901 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 09:01:25 Z

[2] Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) above forecasts (0.3%) in May: Actual (0.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-mom-above-forecasts-03-in-may-actual-04-202605290901 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 09:01:21 Z

[3] Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (0.1%) in May: Actual (0.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-mom-above-forecasts-01-in-may-actual-04-202605290901 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 09:01:15 Z

[4] Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) came in at 3.3%, above expectations (3.2%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-yoy-came-in-at-33-above-expectations-32-in-may-202605290901 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 09:01:03 Z

[5] Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM) increased to 9.5% in April from previous 9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-unemployment-rate-mom-increased-to-95-in-april-from-previous-9-202605290859 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:59:51 Z

[6] Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 8.3% to 12.8% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-producer-price-index-yoy-rose-from-previous-83-to-128-in-april-202605290859 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:59:51 Z

[7] Greece Retail Sales (YoY) fell from previous 4.6% to 3% in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-retail-sales-yoy-fell-from-previous-46-to-3-in-march-202605290859 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:59:51 Z

[8] Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.2%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/belgium-gross-domestic-product-qoq-meets-forecasts-02-in-1q-202605290859 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:59:50 Z

[9] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Remains depressed near 0.7150 on firm USD, reduced RBA hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-remains-depressed-near-07150-on-firm-usd-reduced-rba-hike-bets-202605290858 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:58:10 Z

[10] Euro retreats as the Japanese Yen picks up following intervention warnings URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-retreats-as-the-japanese-yen-picks-up-following-intervention-warnings-202605290846 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:46:07 Z

[11] Indian Rupee extends opening gains as oil prices crack on US-Iran optimism URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-opens-higher-on-renewed-us-iran-deal-optimism-202605290523 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:33:14 Z

[12] EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA caps recovery, flash German HICP data awaited URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-20-day-ema-caps-recovery-flash-german-hicp-data-awaited-202605290813 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:13:57 Z

[13] Gold clings to gains above $4,500; upside seems limited on firmer USD, Fed bets, Iran risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-pauses-recovery-as-firm-us-inflation-reaffirms-fed-hike-bets-amid-iran-uncertainty-202605290341 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:09:49 Z

[14] USD/CHF Price Forecast: US Dollar clings above 0.7830 with bearish pressure growing URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-us-dollar-clings-above-07830-with-bearish-pressure-growing-202605290808 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:08:18 Z

[15] Forex Today: Yet to be confirmed US-Iran MOU caps US Dollar's upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-yet-to-be-confirmed-us-iran-mou-caps-us-dollars-upside-202605290807 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:07:10 Z

[16] Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM): -0.2% (May) vs previous 0.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-north-rhine-westphalia-cpi-mom-02-may-vs-previous-04-202605290806 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:06:50 Z

[17] Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) declined to -0.1% in May from previous 0.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-brandenburg-cpi-mom-declined-to-01-in-may-from-previous-06-202605290806 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:06:19 Z

[18] Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) fell from previous 2.9% to 2.8% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-brandenburg-cpi-yoy-fell-from-previous-29-to-28-in-may-202605290806 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:06:10 Z

[19] Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) declined to 2.4% in May from previous 2.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-north-rhine-westphalia-cpi-yoy-declined-to-24-in-may-from-previous-27-202605290804 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:04:54 Z

[20] Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) declined to -0.2% in May from previous 0.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hesse-cpi-mom-declined-to-02-in-may-from-previous-04-202605290804 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:04:01 Z

[21] Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 2.8% to 2.6% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hesse-cpi-yoy-dipped-from-previous-28-to-26-in-may-202605290803 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:03:43 Z

[22] Spain Current Account Balance rose from previous €4.04B to €4.61B in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-current-account-balance-rose-from-previous-eu404b-to-eu461b-in-march-202605290803 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:03:14 Z

[23] South Africa Private Sector Credit increased to 9.2% in April from previous 8.5% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-private-sector-credit-increased-to-92-in-april-from-previous-85-202605290802 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:02:39 Z

[24] Germany Saxony CPI (MoM) declined to -0.1% in May from previous 0.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-saxony-cpi-mom-declined-to-01-in-may-from-previous-06-202605290801 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:01:35 Z

[25] Germany Saxony CPI (YoY): 2.8% (May) vs previous 2.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-saxony-cpi-yoy-28-may-vs-previous-29-202605290801 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:01:22 Z

[26] Italy Unemployment registered at 5.1%, below expectations (5.3%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-unemployment-registered-at-51-below-expectations-53-in-april-202605290801 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:01:04 Z

[27] Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) declined to 0.3% in May from previous 0.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-baden-wuerttemberg-cpi-mom-declined-to-03-in-may-from-previous-06-202605290800 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:00:55 Z

[28] Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY): 2.4% (May) vs previous 2.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-baden-wuerttemberg-cpi-yoy-24-may-vs-previous-26-202605290800 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:00:51 Z

[29] Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 2.9% to 2.6% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-bavaria-cpi-yoy-dipped-from-previous-29-to-26-in-may-202605290800 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:00:15 Z

[30] Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM): -0.2% (May) vs previous 0.5% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-bavaria-cpi-mom-02-may-vs-previous-05-202605290800 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 08:00:14 Z

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] Prisoners wearing ankle tags attended government rallies, messages say Time: 2026-05-29T08:47:10.552Z

[2] Pakistan foreign minister arrives in Washington to meet Rubio Time: 2026-05-29T08:25:11.013Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 90 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 6.7% of normal
  • Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 0
  • Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 20.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost