Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-28 10:15:51 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (3 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.424 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.02 balanced |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +8.2B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.71% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 54% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +11.9% growth optimism · real yield 2.10% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.53 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.34 normal, SPY/TNX -0.73 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.72 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.2 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 139 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.34 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 32 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and carry) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 72/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 72 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.424) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.424 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 8.2B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 54% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.2 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.19)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $750.24 | 50 SMA $700.07 | 200 SMA $680.01 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.64
- QQQ: $728.98 | 50 SMA $647.42 | 200 SMA $616.24 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $710.93
- IWM: $288.39 | 50 SMA $268.31 | 200 SMA $253.26 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $280.95
- VIX: 16.18 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.487%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $750.24 | 65.84 | 31.7 | $732.64 | Neutral | 0.78 |
| QQQ | $728.98 | 69.67 | 57.1 | $710.93 | Neutral | 0.77 |
| IWM | $288.39 | 54.32 | 62.1 | $280.95 | Neutral | 0.77 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.18 | 44.40 | 14.7 | $10.52 | Neutral | 1.20 |
| TNX | 44.87 ▲ | 60.06 | 79.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $407.10 | 24.63 | 23.7 | $315.00 | Bearish | 2.09 |
| DXY | 99.25 | 66.14 | 34.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $66.47 | 45.72 | 29.6 | $40.00 | Neutral | 0.96 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.424
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.17B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 490
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 92.9% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 57.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 49.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.8% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 42.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 38.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 35.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 30.4% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $91.08 (5d: -5.5%)
- Brent Crude: $94.55 | Spread: $3.47
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.26/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.53
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.51
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.527 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.339 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.731 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.721 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.90
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 498,385.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 507,968.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.02 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $75.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $750.24)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.49%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.25
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.53% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.25%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 32/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,930B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,194B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,160B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,285B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $73,160 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.10% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.53% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.26/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $133.0 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (750.28) reclaimed ZGL (732.58) — volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.13%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Core PCE Price Index(MoM)(Apr): 0.2% vs Est. 0.3% (MISS) | Prev: 0.3%
- Core PCE Price Index(YoY)(Apr): 3.3% vs Est. 3.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.2%
- Crude Oil Inventories: ⏳ Pending
- Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(Apr): 7.9% vs Est. 4.0% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.3%
- GDP(QoQ)(Q1): 1.6% vs Est. 2.0% (MISS) | Prev: 0.5%
- Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 211 (BEAT) | Prev: 210
- New Home Sales(Apr): 622 vs Est. 661 (MISS) | Prev: 663
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): ⏳ Pending
- Building Permits(Apr): 1.423 vs Est. 1.442 (MISS) | Prev: 1.363
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,786 vs Est. 1,780 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,771
- Core Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(Apr): 1.1% vs Est. 0.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.1%
- Core PCE Prices(Q1): 4.40% vs Est. 4.30% (BEAT) | Prev: 2.70%
- GDP Price Index(QoQ)(Q1): 3.5% vs Est. 3.6% (MISS) | Prev: 3.6%
- New Home Sales(MoM)(Apr): -6.2% | Prev: 3.4%
- PCE Price index(YoY)(Apr): 3.8% vs Est. 3.8% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.5%
- PCE price index(MoM)(Apr): 0.4% vs Est. 0.5% (MISS) | Prev: 0.7%
- Personal Spending(MoM)(Apr): 0.5% vs Est. 0.5% (INLINE) | Prev: 1.0%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.51 (↑6.8% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (↑2.4% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (10):
[1] British Pound: Political risk premium unwound against Euro - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-political-risk-premium-unwound-against-euro-ing-202605281401 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 14:01:14 Z
[2] United States New Home Sales (MoM) came in at 0.622M below forecasts (0.67M) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-new-home-sales-mom-came-in-at-0622m-below-forecasts-067m-in-april-202605281400 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 14:00:15 Z
[3] United States New Home Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.67M) in April: Actual (622M) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-new-home-sales-mom-above-expectations-067m-in-april-actual-622m-202605281400 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 14:00:03 Z
[4] Australian Dollar: RBA seen on extended hold - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rba-seen-on-extended-hold-uob-202605281348 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 13:48:46 Z
[5] Switzerland: Price shock risks and competitiveness - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-price-shock-risks-and-competitiveness-commerzbank-202605281335 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 13:35:46 Z
[6] Gold rebounds from two-month low after softer US PCE data but remains technically bearish URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-drops-to-fresh-two-month-low-as-markets-focus-on-inflation-risks-us-pce-data-202605281207 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 13:32:41 Z
[7] Fed's Williams: Hit to inflation likely to peak in next few months URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/feds-williams-hit-to-inflation-likely-to-peak-in-next-few-months-202605281330 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 13:30:09 Z
[8] Canadian Dollar: Bearish bias near 1.39 against US Dollar - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-bearish-bias-near-139-against-us-dollar-scotiabank-202605281316 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 13:16:35 Z
[9] South Korean Won: Hawkish BoK and undervaluation support - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korean-won-hawkish-bok-and-undervaluation-support-bbh-202605281308 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 13:08:10 Z
[10] United States Q1 GDP growth revised to 1.6% vs. 2% expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-q1-gdp-growth-revised-16-vs-2-expected-202605281307 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 13:07:19 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 89 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 4.3% of normal
- Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 280
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 40.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS135 (+170% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost