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2026-W22

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-28 09:15:57 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool 🔴 BEARISH ✗ DIVERGENT DIX 0.406 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 0.87 call-heavy
Gamma 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED GEX +7.1B strong suppression
Credit 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.72% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose
Breadth 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED Breadth 56% — broad participation supports rally
Energy ⚪ NEUTRAL — Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations ⚪ NEUTRAL — Copper/Gold +9.7% growth optimism · real yield 2.10% restrictive
news_sentiment ⚪ NEUTRAL — AI news sentiment unavailable
Correlations ⚪ NEUTRAL — SPY/VIX -0.54 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.33 normal, SPY/TNX -0.73 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.71 stretched
Volatility ⚪ NEUTRAL — VIX 16.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 139 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.32 dealer stress
Inflation ⚪ NEUTRAL — Stagflation score 32 — moderate, watching
carry_risk 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 71 calm
Liquidity ⚪ NEUTRAL — Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and breadth) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.406) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.406; GEX positive at 7.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.4 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.

  • Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.19)

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $750.29 | 50 SMA $700.07 | 200 SMA $680.01 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.63
  • QQQ: $729.33 | 50 SMA $647.42 | 200 SMA $616.24 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $710.92
  • IWM: $289.90 | 50 SMA $268.31 | 200 SMA $253.26 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $280.95
  • VIX: 16.43 — sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.481%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL γ-Sent PCR
SPY $750.29 65.84 31.7 $732.63 Neutral 0.75
QQQ $729.33 69.67 57.1 $710.92 Neutral 0.73
IWM $289.90 54.32 62.1 $280.95 Neutral 0.53

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL γ-Sent PCR
VIX 16.43 44.40 14.7 $10.52 Neutral 1.18
TNX 44.81 60.06 79.4 - - -
GLD $406.53 24.63 23.7 $320.00 Bearish 1.67
DXY 99.13 63.99 34.4 - - -
SLV $66.66 45.72 29.6 $64.49 Neutral 0.76

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.406
  • DIX Signal: Weak
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.1B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.93%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 55.9%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Real Estate 92.9% 0/0
Technology 73.8% 0/0
Industrials 61.2% 0/0
Communication Services 60.0% 0/0
Financials 59.7% 0/0
Consumer Staples 55.9% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 45.8% 0/0
Materials 41.7% 0/0
Utilities 40.0% 0/0
Health Care 37.0% 0/0
Energy 36.8% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: ELEVATED
  • WTI Crude: $90.49 (5d: -6.1%)
  • Brent Crude: $93.82 | Spread: $3.33
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.0900/gal
  • Heating Oil: $3.5400/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $45.59/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $56.99
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $11.18

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.542 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.333 normal
SPY / TNX -0.728 stretched
SPY / Oil -0.712 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.90
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.87 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $456.9B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $750.29)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.48%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.13
  • Growth vs Value: 0.97
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.53% (Above Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.25%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 32/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.9B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,930B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,194B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,160B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $17,285B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $73,160 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.10% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
  • [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.53% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $45.59/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $131.03 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.406) despite calm surface (VIX 16.4, breadth 56%).
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [INFO] SPY (750.28) reclaimed ZGL (732.58) — volatility dampening resumes.
  • [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: May
  • Average Return: +1.13%
  • Median Return: +1.61%
  • Hit Rate: 80%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Core PCE Price Index(MoM)(Apr): 0.2% vs Est. 0.3% (MISS) | Prev: 0.3%
  • Core PCE Price Index(YoY)(Apr): 3.3% vs Est. 3.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.2%
  • Crude Oil Inventories: ⏳ Pending
  • Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(Apr): 7.9% vs Est. 4.0% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.3%
  • GDP(QoQ)(Q1): 1.6% vs Est. 2.0% (MISS) | Prev: 0.5%
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 211 (BEAT) | Prev: 210
  • New Home Sales(Apr): ⏳ Pending
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): ⏳ Pending
  • Building Permits(Apr): 1.423 vs Est. 1.442 (MISS) | Prev: 1.363
  • Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,786 vs Est. 1,780 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,771
  • Core Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(Apr): 1.1% vs Est. 0.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.1%
  • Core PCE Prices(Q1): 4.40% vs Est. 4.30% (BEAT) | Prev: 2.70%
  • GDP Price Index(QoQ)(Q1): 3.5% vs Est. 3.6% (MISS) | Prev: 3.6%
  • PCE Price index(YoY)(Apr): 3.8% vs Est. 3.8% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.5%
  • PCE price index(MoM)(Apr): 0.4% vs Est. 0.5% (MISS) | Prev: 0.7%
  • Personal Spending(MoM)(Apr): 0.5% vs Est. 0.5% (INLINE) | Prev: 1.0%

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
  • Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
  • Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (27):

[1] South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-sarb-interest-rate-decision-meets-expectations-7-202605281305 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 13:05:38 Z

[2] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD recovers after US PCE data while bearish structure remains intact URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-recovers-after-us-pce-data-while-bearish-structure-remains-intact-202605281303 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 13:03:59 Z

[3] The AI boom just hit its first real margin call URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-ai-boom-just-hit-its-first-real-margin-call-202605281303 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 13:03:35 Z

[4] Russia Central Bank Reserves $ fell from previous $768.9B to $753.8B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia-central-bank-reserves-fell-from-previous-7689b-to-7538b-202605281300 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 13:00:39 Z

[5] Czech Koruna: Narrowing rate gap weighs on koruna versus Euro - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/czech-koruna-narrowing-rate-gap-weighs-on-koruna-versus-euro-ing-202605281252 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:52:39 Z

[6] Breaking: US core PCE inflation rises to 3.3% in April as forecast URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-core-pce-inflation-expected-to-tick-up-in-april-reinforcing-fed-hawkish-shift-202605280600 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:35:31 Z

[7] US: Initial Jobless Claims rose to 215K last week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-rose-to-215k-last-week-202605281233 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:33:50 Z

[8] British Pound: Political fractures weigh against US Dollar - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-political-fractures-weigh-against-us-dollar-rabobank-202605281233 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:33:16 Z

[9] United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.786M, above forecasts (1.78M) in May 15 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-continuing-jobless-claims-came-in-at-1786m-above-forecasts-178m-in-may-15-202605281232 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:32:56 Z

[10] United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index declined to 3.5% in 1Q from previous 3.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-gross-domestic-product-price-index-declined-to-35-in-1q-from-previous-36-202605281231 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:31:08 Z

[11] United States Personal Income (MoM) came in at 0% below forecasts (0.4%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-income-mom-came-in-at-0-below-forecasts-04-in-april-202605281230 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:30:52 Z

[12] United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) came in at 4.4%, above forecasts (4.3%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-core-personal-consumption-expenditures-qoq-came-in-at-44-above-forecasts-43-in-1q-202605281230 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:30:13 Z

[13] Canada Current Account dipped from previous -0.7B to -7.2B in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-current-account-dipped-from-previous-07b-to-72b-in-1q-202605281230 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:30:11 Z

[14] United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-mom-came-in-at-04-below-expectations-05-in-april-202605281230 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:30:10 Z

[15] United States Personal Spending in line with expectations (0.5%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-spending-in-line-with-expectations-05-in-april-202605281230 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:30:09 Z

[16] United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (3.8%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-yoy-meets-forecasts-38-in-april-202605281230 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:30:09 Z

[17] United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (3.3%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-core-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-yoy-in-line-with-forecasts-33-in-april-202605281230 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:30:09 Z

[18] United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-core-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-mom-registered-at-02-below-expectations-03-in-april-202605281230 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:30:09 Z

[19] United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) meets forecasts (4.5%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-consumption-expenditures-prices-qoq-meets-forecasts-45-in-1q-202605281230 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:30:08 Z

[20] United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at 1.6%, below expectations (2%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-gross-domestic-product-annualized-came-in-at-16-below-expectations-2-in-1q-202605281230 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:30:08 Z

[21] United States Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation came in at 1.1%, above expectations (0.5%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-durable-goods-orders-ex-transportation-came-in-at-11-above-expectations-05-in-april-202605281230 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:30:07 Z

[22] United States Durable Goods Orders ex Defense: 8.1% (April) vs -0.3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-durable-goods-orders-ex-defense-81-april-vs-03-202605281230 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:30:07 Z

[23] United States Durable Goods Orders above expectations (3.5%) in April: Actual (7.9%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-durable-goods-orders-above-expectations-35-in-april-actual-79-202605281230 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:30:02 Z

[24] United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 215K, above expectations (211K) in May 22 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-came-in-at-215k-above-expectations-211k-in-may-22-202605281230 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:30:02 Z

[25] United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average increased to 209K in May 22 from previous 202.5K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-4-week-average-increased-to-209k-in-may-22-from-previous-2025k-202605281230 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:30:02 Z

[26] Euro: Weak EU trade and sentiment weigh against US Dollar - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-weak-eu-trade-and-sentiment-weigh-against-us-dollar-bny-202605281216 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:16:16 Z

[27] Gold drops to fresh two-month low as markets focus on inflation risks, US PCE data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-drops-to-fresh-two-month-low-as-markets-focus-on-inflation-risks-us-pce-data-202605281207 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:07:38 Z

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] US sanctions Iranian strait authority, targets airlines and oil trade Time: 2026-05-28T13:03:15.324Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 89 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 6.7% of normal
  • Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 0
  • Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS250 (+400% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost