Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-26 14:00:46 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.85 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +9.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.74% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Breadth 58% — broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +10.2% growth optimism · real yield 2.18% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.50 stretched, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.74 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 137 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.24 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — dark pool, gamma, and credit align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 77/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 77 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.15)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $749.12 | 50 SMA $696.68 | 200 SMA $678.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.24
- QQQ: $728.37 | 50 SMA $642.10 | 200 SMA $614.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $708.77
- IWM: $289.75 | 50 SMA $266.60 | 200 SMA $252.56 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $282.24
- VIX: 17.06 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.504%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $749.12 | 71.84 | 31.9 | $732.24 | Bearish | 0.48 |
| QQQ | $728.37 | 73.52 | 57.5 | $708.77 | Bearish | 0.36 |
| IWM | $289.75 | 58.09 | 55.5 | $282.24 | Bearish | 0.21 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.06 | 38.69 | 14.2 | $10.52 | Neutral | 1.02 |
| TNX | 45.04 ▼ | 58.83 | 71.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $412.34 | 49.19 | 23.4 | $416.02 | Bearish | 2.54 |
| DXY | 99.21 | 59.93 | 34.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.74 | 53.86 | 28.5 | $40.00 | Neutral | 0.72 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.13B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.74% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 57.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 71.6% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 53.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 52.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 39.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 35.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $93.74 (5d: -13.0%)
- Brent Crude: $96.69 | Spread: $2.95
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $45.84/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.35
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.99
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.496 | stretched |
| SPY / DXY | -0.416 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.738 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.635 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 78.43
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,591,503.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,201,438.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.85 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $359.0B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $749.12)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.50%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.92 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.21
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.40%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,931B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,196B ▼
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,174B ▲
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,302B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,474 ▲ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (743.74) reclaimed ZGL (732.20) — volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [WARNING] SPY (738.56) dropped below ZGL (738.98) — expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] Breadth crossed above 50% (50% >50d SMA) — participation broadening, bullish reversal signal.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.12%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- CB Consumer Confidence(May): 93.1 vs Est. 91.9 (BEAT) | Prev: 93.8
- 2-Year Note Auction: 4.071% | Prev: 3.812%
- S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a.(MoM)(Mar): 1.0% | Prev: 0.4%
- S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a.(YoY)(Mar): 0.8% vs Est. 0.9% (MISS) | Prev: 0.9%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (3):
[1] Turkish Lira: Political stress and energy shock drive weaker Lira - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkish-lira-political-stress-and-energy-shock-drive-weaker-lira-mufg-202605261736 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 17:36:27 Z
[2] Forex Today: Australian inflation takes centre stage alongside geopolitics URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-australian-inflation-takes-centre-stage-alongside-geopolitics-202605261717 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 17:17:34 Z
[3] United States 2-Year Note Auction increased to 4.071% from previous 3.812% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-2-year-note-auction-increased-to-4071-from-previous-3812-202605261704 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 17:04:12 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] UN food chief warns Hormuz closure could trigger global food crisis Time: 2026-05-26T17:58:56.898Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 87 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 30.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost