Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-26 09:36:42 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 71% (5 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.22 put-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +9.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Breadth 57% — broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +10.1% growth optimism · real yield 2.18% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.52 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.43 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.74 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 137 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.44 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and breadth) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 75/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 75 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.9 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.16)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $749.16 | 50 SMA $696.68 | 200 SMA $678.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.26
- QQQ: $724.42 | 50 SMA $642.10 | 200 SMA $614.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $700.97
- IWM: $288.39 | 50 SMA $266.60 | 200 SMA $252.56 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $282.43
- VIX: 16.92 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.487%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $749.16 | 71.84 | 31.9 | $732.26 | Neutral | 0.56 |
| QQQ | $724.42 | 73.52 | 57.5 | $700.97 | Neutral | 0.55 |
| IWM | $288.39 | 58.09 | 55.5 | $282.43 | Bearish | 0.39 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.92 | 38.69 | 14.2 | $10.52 | Neutral | 0.98 |
| TNX | 44.87 ▲ | 58.83 | 71.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $415.28 | 49.19 | 23.4 | $416.02 | Neutral | 0.96 |
| DXY | 99.13 | 58.60 | 34.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $69.02 | 53.86 | 28.5 | $67.64 | Neutral | 0.68 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.13B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 57.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 493
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 71.6% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 60.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 43.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 34.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $92.94 (5d: -13.8%)
- Brent Crude: $96.30 | Spread: $3.36
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $48.74/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.92
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.15
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.519 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.433 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.739 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.635 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 78.43
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 94,095.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 115,177.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.22 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $15.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $749.16)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.49%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.13
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.40%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,931B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,196B ▲
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,174B ▲
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,294B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,474 ▲ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (743.74) reclaimed ZGL (732.20) — volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [WARNING] SPY (738.56) dropped below ZGL (738.98) — expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] Breadth crossed above 50% (50% >50d SMA) — participation broadening, bullish reversal signal.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.13%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- CB Consumer Confidence(May): ⏳ Pending
- S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a.(MoM)(Mar): 1.0% | Prev: 0.4%
- S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a.(YoY)(Mar): 0.8% vs Est. 0.9% (MISS) | Prev: 0.9%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.5% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Video: Mexico to host Iran during World Cup Time: 2026-05-26T13:25:05.160Z
[2] Iran official says first step taken to reopen internet Time: 2026-05-26T13:19:33.859Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 87 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS250 (+400% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost