Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-26 09:01:04 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 71% (5 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.14 put-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +9.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Breadth 58% — broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +12.1% growth optimism · real yield 2.18% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.52 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.44 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.75 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 137 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.45 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and breadth) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 77/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 77 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.8 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.15)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $750.97 | 50 SMA $696.68 | 200 SMA $678.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.42
- QQQ: $726.33 | 50 SMA $642.10 | 200 SMA $614.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $710.98
- IWM: $288.35 | 50 SMA $266.60 | 200 SMA $252.56 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $282.7
- VIX: 16.75 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.491%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $750.97 | 71.84 | 31.9 | $732.42 | Neutral | 0.94 |
| QQQ | $726.33 | 73.52 | 57.5 | $710.98 | Neutral | 0.99 |
| IWM | $288.35 | 58.09 | 55.5 | $282.70 | Neutral | 1.02 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.75 | 38.69 | 14.2 | $10.00 | Neutral | 0.85 |
| TNX | 44.91 | 58.83 | 71.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $415.20 | 49.19 | 23.4 | $416.01 | Neutral | 1.12 |
| DXY | 99.11 | 58.29 | 35.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $69.01 | 53.86 | 28.5 | $67.64 | Neutral | 0.75 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.13B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 58.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 75.4% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 72.1% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 56.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 39.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 38.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $92.52 (5d: -14.2%)
- Brent Crude: $95.92 | Spread: $3.40
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.16/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.49
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.94
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.521 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.441 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.753 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.635 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 78.43
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.14 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $72.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $750.97)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.49%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.11
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.40%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,931B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,196B ▲
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,174B ▲
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,294B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,474 ▲ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (743.74) reclaimed ZGL (732.20) — volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [WARNING] SPY (738.56) dropped below ZGL (738.98) — expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] Breadth crossed above 50% (50% >50d SMA) — participation broadening, bullish reversal signal.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.10%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- CB Consumer Confidence(May): ⏳ Pending
- S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a.(MoM)(Mar): 1.0% | Prev: 0.4%
- S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a.(YoY)(Mar): 0.8% vs Est. 0.9% (MISS) | Prev: 0.9%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (8):
[1] Swiss Franc weakens as renewed US-Iran tensions support the US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-as-renewed-us-iran-tensions-support-the-us-dollar-202605261255 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 12:55:32 Z
[2] Fed : PCE data and hawkish rhetoric in focus - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-pce-data-and-hawkish-rhetoric-in-focus-deutsche-bank-202605261250 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 12:50:00 Z
[3] BoC's Vincent: Structural changes in labor markets make BoC's job more complicated URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bocs-vincent-structural-changes-in-labor-markets-make-bocs-job-more-complicated-202605261231 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 12:31:45 Z
[4] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP underperforms as UK gilt yields hit monthly low near 4.82% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-underperforms-as-uk-gilt-yields-hit-monthly-low-near-482-202605261231 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 12:31:14 Z
[5] United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to 0.14 in April from previous -0.2 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-chicago-fed-national-activity-index-increased-to-014-in-april-from-previous-02-202605261230 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 12:30:01 Z
[6] Australian Dollar: Crowded longs face event risk - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-crowded-longs-face-event-risk-societe-generale-202605261218 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 12:18:55 Z
[7] New Zealand Dollar: Hawkish RBNZ stance supports against US Dollar - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-hawkish-rbnz-stance-supports-against-us-dollar-dbs-202605261210 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 12:10:41 Z
[8] Indian Rupee: Gradual stabilisation prospects after oil shock - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-gradual-stabilisation-prospects-after-oil-shock-ing-202605261202 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 12:02:26 Z
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] Pezeshkian, Iraqi PM discuss dialogue to ease regional tensions Time: 2026-05-26T12:49:42.994Z
[2] Video: Why Iran faces de facto dollarization despite anti-US stance Time: 2026-05-26T12:40:12.420Z
[3] Iran, Kyrgyzstan presidents discuss regional cooperation Time: 2026-05-26T12:39:12.152Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 87 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS250 (+400% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost