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2026-W22

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-25 06:00:19 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY 0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.76 call-heavy
Gamma 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED GEX +9.1B strong suppression
Credit 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose
Breadth 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED Breadth 58% — broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations ⚪ NEUTRAL — Copper/Gold +12.1% growth optimism · real yield 2.18% restrictive
Correlations 🔴 BEARISH ✗ DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.57 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.72 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched
Volatility ⚪ NEUTRAL — VIX 16.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 137 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.46 dealer stress
Inflation ⚪ NEUTRAL — Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching
carry_risk 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d +0.0% stable, MOVE 78 calm
Liquidity ⚪ NEUTRAL — Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — dark pool, gamma, and credit align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 77/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 77 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.7 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.

  • Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.14)

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $743.74 | 50 SMA $696.68 | 200 SMA $678.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.18
  • QQQ: $715.31 | 50 SMA $642.10 | 200 SMA $614.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $698.72
  • IWM: $283.53 | 50 SMA $266.60 | 200 SMA $252.56 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $278.88
  • VIX: 16.70 — sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.558%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL γ-Sent PCR
SPY $743.74 71.84 31.9 $732.18 Neutral 0.60
QQQ $715.31 73.52 57.5 $698.72 Neutral 0.65
IWM $283.53 58.09 55.5 $278.88 Neutral 0.88

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL γ-Sent PCR
VIX 16.70 38.69 14.2 $10.50 Neutral 1.42
TNX 45.58 58.83 71.7 - - -
GLD $413.50 49.19 23.4 $416.07 Neutral 1.11
DXY 99.01 56.86 36.1 - - -
SLV $68.31 53.86 28.5 $45.00 Neutral 0.76

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
  • DIX Signal: Neutral
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.13B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.94%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 58.0%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.5%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 42.9%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Real Estate 96.4% 0/0
Technology 75.4% 0/0
Financials 72.1% 0/0
Energy 68.4% 0/0
Consumer Staples 58.8% 0/0
Industrials 56.7% 0/0
Communication Services 55.0% 0/0
Utilities 50.0% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 39.0% 0/0
Health Care 38.9% 0/0
Materials 33.3% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: FALLING
  • WTI Crude: $96.60 (5d: -10.4%)
  • Brent Crude: $100.21 | Spread: $3.61
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.3500/gal
  • Heating Oil: $3.7700/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.98/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $59.49
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.94

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.566 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.42 elevated
SPY / TNX -0.721 stretched
SPY / Oil -0.635 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 78.43
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.76 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $529.7B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $730 | Put Wall: $755 (Spot: $743.74)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.56%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.97 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.01
  • Growth vs Value: 0.96
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.40%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.0B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,931B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,198B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,175B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $17,304B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,517 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.18% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
  • [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $96.60 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
  • [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $49.98/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $140.92 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
  • [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
  • [INFO] SPY (738.98) reclaimed ZGL (731.00) — volatility dampening resumes.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: May
  • Average Return: +1.10%
  • Median Return: +1.61%
  • Hit Rate: 80%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(May): 4.8% vs Est. 4.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 4.7%
  • Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(May): 3.9% vs Est. 3.4% (BEAT) | Prev: 3.4%
  • Michigan Consumer Expectations(May): 44.1 vs Est. 48.5 (MISS) | Prev: 48.1
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment(May): 44.8 vs Est. 48.2 (MISS) | Prev: 48.2
  • US Leading Index(MoM)(Apr): 0.1% vs Est. -0.1% (BEAT) | Prev: -0.6%

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
  • Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
  • Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (22):

[1] South African Rand: SARB tightening and fiscal risks - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-african-rand-sarb-tightening-and-fiscal-risks-bny-202605250927 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 09:27:35 Z

[2] Euro rises against Canadian Dollar due to lower oil prices, risk-on mood URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-rises-against-canadian-dollar-due-to-lower-oil-prices-risk-on-mood-202605250926 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 09:26:05 Z

[3] Indian Rupee extends rally on RBI Malhotra's further intervention remarks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rallies-further-as-rbis-malhotra-opens-door-for-further-intervention-202605250531 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 09:13:26 Z

[4] New Zealand Dollar: Seen above 0.60 against US Dollar in 2H26 - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-seen-above-060-against-us-dollar-in-2h26-ing-202605250908 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 09:08:51 Z

[5] Japan PM Takaichi: Impact of new debt to be offset by higher tax revenue URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-pm-takaichi-impact-of-new-debt-to-be-offset-by-higher-tax-revenue-202605250859 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 08:59:35 Z

[6] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds above 1.3800; near highest since April 13 amid bullish setup URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-holds-above-13800-near-highest-since-april-13-amid-bullish-setup-202605250858 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 08:58:36 Z

[7] British Pound: Upside risk to 1.3530 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-upside-risk-to-13530-against-us-dollar-uob-202605250858 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 08:58:21 Z

[8] ECB officials agree: We need to act quickly to tame inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-officials-agree-we-need-to-act-quickly-to-tame-inflation-202605250856 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 08:56:40 Z

[9] Swiss Franc extends its gains as the US Dollar faints amid Iran peace hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-extends-its-gains-as-the-us-dollar-faints-amid-iran-peace-hopes-202605250849 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 08:49:38 Z

[10] Euro: Downside risks against US Dollar towards 1.1400 support - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-downside-risks-against-us-dollar-towards-11400-support-bbh-202605250845 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 08:45:25 Z

[11] Dow Jones futures rise as market sentiment improves on potential US-Iran deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-rise-as-market-sentiment-improves-on-potential-us-iran-deal-202605250834 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 08:34:56 Z

[12] Forex Today: Risk flows dominate markets on US-Iran deal hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-risk-flows-dominate-markets-on-us-iran-deal-hopes-202605250827 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 08:27:55 Z

[13] Japanese Yen: Intervention needs BoJ support - HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-needs-boj-support-hsbc-202605250826 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 08:26:59 Z

[14] Gold retains intraday bullish bias as Iran peace deal hopes keep USD depressed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-sticks-to-gains-as-iran-diplomacy-hopes-weigh-on-usd-upside-potential-seems-limited-202605250405 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 08:21:44 Z

[15] Indian Rupee: RBI support and rate talk underpin INR - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rbi-support-and-rate-talk-underpin-inr-commerzbank-202605250816 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 08:16:41 Z

[16] Fed: Warsh ambiguity clouds Dollar outlook - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-warsh-ambiguity-clouds-dollar-outlook-dbs-202605250807 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 08:07:46 Z

[17] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Resistance at 0.5880 keeps holding bulls URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-resistance-at-05880-keeps-holding-bulls-202605250804 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 08:04:49 Z

[18] Australian Dollar: Rebound meets resistance against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rebound-meets-resistance-against-us-dollar-uob-202605250757 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 07:57:27 Z

[19] Australian Dollar rises as improving sentiment outweighs decreasing RBA rate hike odds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rises-as-improving-sentiment-outweighs-decreasing-rba-rate-hike-odds-202605250753 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 07:53:58 Z

[20] Japanese Yen slides to 159.00 vs weaker USD amid economic risks due to Mideast uncertainty URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-slides-to-15900-vs-weaker-usd-amid-economic-risks-due-to-mideast-uncertainty-202605250748 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 07:48:52 Z

[21] New Zealand Dollar: Rangebound versus US Dollar on RBNZ repricing - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-rangebound-versus-us-dollar-on-rbnz-repricing-bbh-202605250748 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 07:48:37 Z

[22] Brent: Range-bound swings with Middle East risk - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-range-bound-swings-with-middle-east-risk-rabobank-202605250732 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 07:32:11 Z

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] Iran internet blackout reaches 87th day, NetBlocks says Time: 2026-05-25T09:23:57.099Z

[2] Explosion at Iran gas refinery injures three workers Time: 2026-05-25T09:07:39.156Z

[3] Iran says any NPT decision will follow official process Time: 2026-05-25T09:01:01.839Z

[4] Xi praises Pakistan's role in Iran-US mediation Time: 2026-05-25T08:44:47.351Z

[5] Iran military capacity remains intact, senior commander says Time: 2026-05-25T08:15:45.441Z

[6] Iran foreign minister to skip UN meeting over US visa issue Time: 2026-05-25T08:03:15.270Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 86 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 58.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 35.0% of normal (3.6M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 0
  • Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 42.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS92 (+84% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost