Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-25 02:00:31 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY 0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.76 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +9.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Breadth 58% — broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +12.1% growth optimism · real yield 2.18% restrictive |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.57 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.72 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 137 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.46 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.0% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — dark pool, gamma, and credit align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 77/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 77 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.7 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.14)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $743.74 | 50 SMA $696.68 | 200 SMA $678.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.18
- QQQ: $715.31 | 50 SMA $642.10 | 200 SMA $614.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $698.72
- IWM: $283.53 | 50 SMA $266.60 | 200 SMA $252.56 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $278.88
- VIX: 16.70 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.558%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $743.74 | 71.84 | 31.9 | $732.18 | Neutral | 0.60 |
| QQQ | $715.31 | 73.52 | 57.5 | $698.72 | Neutral | 0.65 |
| IWM | $283.53 | 58.09 | 55.5 | $278.88 | Neutral | 0.88 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.70 | 38.69 | 14.2 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.42 |
| TNX | 45.58 | 58.83 | 71.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $413.50 | 49.19 | 23.4 | $416.07 | Neutral | 1.11 |
| DXY | 99.01 | 56.86 | 36.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.31 | 53.86 | 28.5 | $45.00 | Neutral | 0.76 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.13B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 58.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 75.4% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 72.1% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 56.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 39.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 38.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $96.60 (5d: -10.4%)
- Brent Crude: $100.21 | Spread: $3.61
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3500/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.98/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.49
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.94
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.566 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.42 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.721 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.635 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 78.43
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.76 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $529.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $730 | Put Wall: $755 (Spot: $743.74)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.56%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.97 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.01
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.40%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,931B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,198B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,175B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,304B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,316 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.18% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $96.60 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $49.98/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $140.92 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [INFO] SPY (738.98) reclaimed ZGL (731.00) — volatility dampening resumes.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.10%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(May): 4.8% vs Est. 4.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 4.7%
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(May): 3.9% vs Est. 3.4% (BEAT) | Prev: 3.4%
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(May): 44.1 vs Est. 48.5 (MISS) | Prev: 48.1
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(May): 44.8 vs Est. 48.2 (MISS) | Prev: 48.2
- US Leading Index(MoM)(Apr): 0.1% vs Est. -0.1% (BEAT) | Prev: -0.6%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (15):
[1] British Pound builds on intraday gains vs weaker USD; approaches 1.3500 on Iran deal hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-builds-on-intraday-gains-vs-weaker-usd-approaches-13500-on-iran-deal-hopes-202605250524 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 05:24:25 Z
[2] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202605250505 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 05:05:54 Z
[3] US Secretary of State Rubio: We'll either reach a good deal or handle it differently URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-secretary-of-state-rubio-well-either-reach-a-good-deal-or-handle-it-differently-202605250503 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 05:03:20 Z
[4] Philippines Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202605250500 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 05:00:36 Z
[5] Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 1.8 below forecasts (2) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-consumer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-18-below-forecasts-2-in-april-202605250500 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 05:00:01 Z
[6] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202605250455 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 04:55:49 Z
[7] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202605250445 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 04:45:16 Z
[8] India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202605250444 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 04:44:37 Z
[9] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202605250443 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 04:43:42 Z
[10] AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains momentum, holding bullish bias above 100-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-price-forecast-gains-momentum-holding-bullish-bias-above-100-day-ema-202605250440 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 04:40:21 Z
[11] Asian stocks rally on Mideast peace hopes; Japan's Nikkei hits record high above 65,000 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-stocks-rally-on-mideast-peace-hopes-japans-nikkei-hits-record-high-above-65-000-202605250437 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 04:37:15 Z
[12] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Remains above 0.7150 to test nine-day EMA barrier URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-remains-above-07150-to-test-nine-day-ema-barrier-202605250419 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 04:19:42 Z
[13] Gold sticks to gains as Iran diplomacy hopes weigh on USD; upside potential seems limited URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-sticks-to-gains-as-iran-diplomacy-hopes-weigh-on-usd-upside-potential-seems-limited-202605250405 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 04:05:19 Z
[14] White House Adviser Hassett says ending Iran war may create room for Fed rate cut URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/white-house-adviser-hassett-says-ending-iran-war-may-create-room-for-fed-rate-cut-202605250346 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 03:46:55 Z
[15] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD jumps to near 1.3480 amid hopes of the US-Iran deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-jumps-to-near-13480-amid-hopes-of-the-us-iran-deal-202605250342 Published: Mon, 25 May 2026 03:42:34 Z
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] Iran judiciary says over €5bn in export currency recovered Time: 2026-05-25T05:53:13.502Z
[2] Vessels carrying oil, LNG exit Hormuz, head for Pakistan, China - Reuters Time: 2026-05-25T05:28:23.272Z
[3] Reopening Hormuz would ease path for attacks on Iran, hardline editor says Time: 2026-05-25T05:02:44.619Z
[BREAKING] [4] Iran hangs protester on accusations of armed action Time: 2026-05-25T04:14:47.924Z
[BREAKING] [5] Rubio says framework for deal with Iran has regional, global backing Time: 2026-05-25T03:52:42.056Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 86 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 2.8% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 286
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 30.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS348 (+596% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost