Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-23 15:15:13 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 17% (1 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE — Moderate divergence — several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.446 below 0.45 and falling — institutional buying drying up, 0DTE PCR 0.76 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | GEX +9.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | Breadth 58% — broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +9.4% growth optimism · real yield 2.18% restrictive |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.58 elevated, SPY/TNX +0.35 normal, SPY/Oil -0.73 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 137 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.46 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence — gamma, credit, and breadth flash bullish while SPY tracks bearish. 5 of 6 signals disagree with price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 78/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 78 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX falling to 0.446 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.7 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.1)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $743.74 | 50 SMA $696.68 | 200 SMA $678.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.18
- QQQ: $715.31 | 50 SMA $642.10 | 200 SMA $614.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $698.72
- IWM: $283.53 | 50 SMA $266.60 | 200 SMA $252.56 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $278.88
- VIX: 16.70 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.558%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $743.74 | 71.84 | 31.9 | $732.18 | Neutral | 0.60 |
| QQQ | $715.31 | 73.52 | 57.5 | $698.72 | Neutral | 0.65 |
| IWM | $283.53 | 58.09 | 55.5 | $278.88 | Neutral | 0.88 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.70 | 38.69 | 14.2 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.42 |
| TNX | 45.58 | 58.83 | 71.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $413.50 | 49.19 | 23.4 | $416.07 | Neutral | 1.11 |
| DXY | 99.32 | 61.90 | 35.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.31 | 53.86 | 28.5 | $45.00 | Neutral | 0.76 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.13B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 58.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 75.4% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 72.1% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 56.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 39.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 38.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $96.60 (5d: -11.1%)
- Brent Crude: $103.54 | Spread: $6.94
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.4500/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.46/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.49
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.94
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.557 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.577 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | 0.346 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.726 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 78.43
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.76 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $529.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $743.74)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.56%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.97 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.32
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.40%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,931B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,171B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,167B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,270B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $75,727 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 5/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend — historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend — structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.18% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $96.60 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $54.46/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $140.92 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.10%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(May): 4.8% vs Est. 4.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 4.7%
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(May): 3.9% vs Est. 3.4% (BEAT) | Prev: 3.4%
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(May): 44.1 vs Est. 48.5 (MISS) | Prev: 48.1
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(May): 44.8 vs Est. 48.2 (MISS) | Prev: 48.2
- US Leading Index(MoM)(Apr): 0.1% vs Est. -0.1% (BEAT) | Prev: -0.6%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] US response to Iran's revised proposal expected by Sunday - Reuters Time: 2026-05-23T19:08:23.857Z
[2] Several Mideast leaders urge Trump to take the deal with Iran - Axios Time: 2026-05-23T18:53:28.951Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 84 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 25 of 60 normal daily — 41.7% of normal
- Throughput: 18.0% of normal (1.9M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS95 (+90% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost