Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-22 11:19:43 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.2% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.455 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.72 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.3B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 55% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +9.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.13% restrictive |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.57 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.60 stretched, SPY/TNX +0.34 normal, SPY/Oil -0.73 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.6 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 137 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.46 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 34 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 80 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with dark pool, gamma, and credit leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 79/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.455; GEX positive at 7.3B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.6 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $747.27 | 50 SMA $695.08 | 200 SMA $678.29 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.28
- QQQ: $720.83 | 50 SMA $639.70 | 200 SMA $613.91 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $700.96
- IWM: $284.45 | 50 SMA $265.85 | 200 SMA $252.23 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $280.8
- VIX: 16.59 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.576%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $747.27 | 67.52 | 33.3 | $732.28 | Bearish | 0.35 |
| QQQ | $720.83 | 71.66 | 59.8 | $700.96 | Bearish | 0.41 |
| IWM | $284.45 | 53.69 | 54.6 | $280.80 | Neutral | 0.63 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.59 | 48.61 | 14.8 | $10.52 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| TNX | 45.76 | 65.43 | 69.6 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $414.44 | 44.85 | 23.6 | $416.76 | Neutral | 1.15 |
| DXY | 99.32 | 61.96 | 35.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.55 | 51.78 | 29.0 | $67.71 | Neutral | 0.91 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.3B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.49% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.2%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 92.9% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 70.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 50.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 37.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 37.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 30.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $97.91 (5d: -9.9%)
- Brent Crude: $104.37 | Spread: $6.46
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3600/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.51/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.17
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.02
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.572 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.603 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.341 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.732 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 79.72
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,518,391.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,094,619.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.72 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $195.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $747.27)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.58%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.32
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.57% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 34/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $3.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,929B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,173B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,169B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,270B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,693 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.455, GEX +7.3B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 55%.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.13% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $97.91 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.57% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $49.51/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $143.1 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.11%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(May): 4.8% vs Est. 4.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 4.7%
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(May): 3.9% vs Est. 3.4% (BEAT) | Prev: 3.4%
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(May): 44.1 vs Est. 48.5 (MISS) | Prev: 48.1
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(May): 44.8 vs Est. 48.2 (MISS) | Prev: 48.2
- US Leading Index(MoM)(Apr): 0.1% vs Est. -0.1% (BEAT) | Prev: -0.6%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] Canadian Dollar weakens as US-Iran uncertainty and hawkish Fed bets support Greenback URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-weakens-as-us-iran-uncertainty-and-hawkish-fed-bets-support-greenback-202605221507 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 15:07:15 Z
[2] Canada: Growth returns with domestic support - RBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-growth-returns-with-domestic-support-rbc-202605221503 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 15:03:25 Z
[3] US Dollar: Supported into holiday as risk stays contained - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-supported-into-holiday-as-risk-stays-contained-scotiabank-202605221451 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 14:51:30 Z
[4] Japanese Yen: Tokyo CPI and intervention data watched - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-tokyo-cpi-and-intervention-data-watched-deutsche-bank-202605221434 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 14:34:28 Z
[5] US Dollar: PCE slowdown and hawkish Fedspeak - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-pce-slowdown-and-hawkish-fedspeak-td-securities-202605221419 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 14:19:33 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Pakistani minister's Tehran meetings pushed Iran-US talks forward - CBS Time: 2026-05-22T15:08:17.376Z
[2] EU moves to sanction Iranian officials over Hormuz blockade Time: 2026-05-22T15:00:10.162Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 83 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 300
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 20.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost