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2026-W21

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-22 10:00:54 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.2% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (6 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED DIX 0.455 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.76 call-heavy
Gamma 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED GEX +7.3B strong suppression
Credit 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose
Breadth 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED Breadth 58% — broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations ⚪ NEUTRAL — Copper/Gold +9.2% growth optimism · real yield 2.13% restrictive
Correlations ⚪ NEUTRAL — SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.60 stretched, SPY/TNX +0.34 normal, SPY/Oil -0.73 stretched
Volatility ⚪ NEUTRAL — VIX 16.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 137 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.50 dealer stress
Inflation ⚪ NEUTRAL — Stagflation score 34 — moderate, watching
carry_risk 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 80 calm
Liquidity ⚪ NEUTRAL — Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — dark pool, gamma, and credit align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 79/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.455; GEX positive at 7.3B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.9 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.

  • Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.12)

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $747.10 | 50 SMA $695.08 | 200 SMA $678.29 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.34
  • QQQ: $718.79 | 50 SMA $639.70 | 200 SMA $613.91 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $698.77
  • IWM: $285.31 | 50 SMA $265.85 | 200 SMA $252.23 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $280.79
  • VIX: 16.87 — sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.552%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL γ-Sent PCR
SPY $747.10 67.52 33.3 $732.34 Bearish 0.39
QQQ $718.79 71.66 59.8 $698.77 Neutral 0.55
IWM $285.31 53.69 54.6 $280.79 Neutral 0.52

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL γ-Sent PCR
VIX 16.87 48.61 14.8 $10.52 Neutral 0.84
TNX 45.52 65.43 69.6 - - -
GLD $414.25 44.85 23.6 $416.74 Neutral 1.08
DXY 99.31 61.81 35.8 - - -
SLV $68.71 51.78 29.0 $67.72 Neutral 0.91

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.3B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.94%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.49% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 57.7%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.2%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 489
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 43.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Real Estate 96.3% 0/0
Technology 76.6% 0/0
Financials 75.8% 0/0
Energy 63.2% 0/0
Consumer Staples 55.9% 0/0
Communication Services 55.0% 0/0
Industrials 52.2% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 44.8% 0/0
Health Care 44.2% 0/0
Materials 31.8% 0/0
Utilities 31.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: FALLING
  • WTI Crude: $97.68 (5d: -10.1%)
  • Brent Crude: $104.30 | Spread: $6.62
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.3500/gal
  • Heating Oil: $3.8300/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.74/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $59.51
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $11.13

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.565 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.605 stretched
SPY / TNX 0.34 normal
SPY / Oil -0.731 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 79.72
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 539,091.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 407,626.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.76 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $70.7B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $747.10)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.55%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.97 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.31
  • Growth vs Value: 0.96
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.57% (Above Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 34/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $3.3B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,929B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,178B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,170B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $17,278B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,107 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.455, GEX +7.3B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 58%.
  • [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.13% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
  • [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $97.68 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
  • [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.57% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $49.74/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $143.21 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: May
  • Average Return: +1.11%
  • Median Return: +1.61%
  • Hit Rate: 80%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(May): 4.8% vs Est. 4.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 4.7%
  • Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(May): 3.9% vs Est. 3.4% (BEAT) | Prev: 3.4%
  • Michigan Consumer Expectations(May): 44.1 vs Est. 48.5 (MISS) | Prev: 48.1
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment(May): 44.8 vs Est. 48.2 (MISS) | Prev: 48.2
  • US Leading Index(MoM)(Apr): 0.1% vs Est. -0.1% (BEAT) | Prev: -0.6%

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
  • Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
  • Retail Sales: 2026-06-17

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.72 (↓3.7% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.5% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 83 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 300
  • Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 26.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS110 (+120% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $5.2 billion/day economic cost