Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-22 09:15:40 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.1% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.455 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.88 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.3B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.80% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 55% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +9.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.13% restrictive |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.57 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.61 stretched, SPY/TNX +0.34 normal, SPY/Oil -0.74 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 137 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.50 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 34 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 80 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with dark pool, gamma, and credit leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 79/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.455; GEX positive at 7.3B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.7 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.12)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $746.79 | 50 SMA $695.08 | 200 SMA $678.29 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.54
- QQQ: $718.12 | 50 SMA $639.70 | 200 SMA $613.91 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $698.94
- IWM: $285.06 | 50 SMA $265.85 | 200 SMA $252.23 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $280.83
- VIX: 16.69 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.530%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $746.79 | 67.52 | 33.3 | $732.54 | Neutral | 0.68 |
| QQQ | $718.12 | 71.66 | 59.8 | $698.94 | Neutral | 0.76 |
| IWM | $285.06 | 53.69 | 54.6 | $280.83 | Neutral | 1.02 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.69 | 48.61 | 14.8 | $10.52 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| TNX | 45.30 | 65.43 | 69.6 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $415.82 | 44.85 | 23.6 | $416.65 | Neutral | 0.73 |
| DXY | 99.28 | 61.44 | 35.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $69.03 | 51.78 | 29.0 | $67.69 | Neutral | 0.81 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.3B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.49% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 55.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 73.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 47.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 40.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 38.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $96.73 (5d: -11.0%)
- Brent Crude: $103.53 | Spread: $6.80
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.15/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.13
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.33
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.571 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.606 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.342 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.736 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 79.72
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.88 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $117.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $738 (Spot: $746.79)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.53%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.96 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.28
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.57% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 34/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $3.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,929B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,178B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,170B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,278B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,396 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.455, GEX +7.3B, HY OAS 2.80%, breadth 55%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.13% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $96.73 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.57% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $49.15/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $142.54 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.08%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(May): ⏳ Pending
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(May): ⏳ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(May): ⏳ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(May): ⏳ Pending
- US Leading Index(MoM)(Apr): ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] Japanese Yen: Negative bias against US Dollar fading - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-negative-bias-against-us-dollar-fading-uob-202605221309 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 13:09:11 Z
[2] British Pound outperforms Euro despite weak UK Retail Sales data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-outperforms-euro-despite-weak-uk-retail-sales-data-202605221306 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 13:06:46 Z
[3] Swiss Franc: ECB doubts tilt risks higher against Euro - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-ecb-doubts-tilt-risks-higher-against-euro-ing-202605221257 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 12:57:40 Z
[4] Indian Rupee: RBI step up as nears record low against US Dollar - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rbi-step-up-as-nears-record-low-against-us-dollar-dbs-202605221244 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 12:44:10 Z
[5] Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM) climbed from previous -1.6% to 0.4% in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-employment-insurance-beneficiaries-change-mom-climbed-from-previous-16-to-04-in-march-202605221239 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 12:39:47 Z
[6] Fed: Warsh builds case for later easing - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-warsh-builds-case-for-later-easing-rabobank-202605221234 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 12:34:06 Z
[7] Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) above forecasts (0.9%) in March: Actual (1.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-retail-sales-ex-autos-mom-above-forecasts-09-in-march-actual-14-202605221230 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 12:30:02 Z
[8] Canada Raw Material Price Index came in at 2.6% below forecasts (2.7%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-raw-material-price-index-came-in-at-26-below-forecasts-27-in-april-202605221230 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 12:30:01 Z
[9] Canada Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.9%, above forecasts (0.6%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-retail-sales-mom-came-in-at-09-above-forecasts-06-in-march-202605221230 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 12:30:01 Z
[10] Canada Industrial Product Price (MoM) above expectations (1.3%) in April: Actual (2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-industrial-product-price-mom-above-expectations-13-in-april-actual-2-202605221230 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 12:30:01 Z
[11] Euro: Policy divergence supports medium-term gains versus Dollar - Nordea URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-policy-divergence-supports-medium-term-gains-versus-dollar-nordea-202605221225 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 12:25:04 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 83 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 2.0% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 267
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS85 (+70% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $5.7 billion/day economic cost