Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-22 08:30:56 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.455 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.88 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.3B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.80% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 55% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +9.8% growth optimism · real yield 2.13% restrictive |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.57 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.60 stretched, SPY/TNX +0.35 normal, SPY/Oil -0.74 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 137 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.49 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 34 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 80 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with dark pool, gamma, and credit leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 79/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.455; GEX positive at 7.3B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.8 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.12)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $745.63 | 50 SMA $695.08 | 200 SMA $678.29 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.54
- QQQ: $717.35 | 50 SMA $639.70 | 200 SMA $613.91 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $698.94
- IWM: $283.75 | 50 SMA $265.85 | 200 SMA $252.23 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $280.83
- VIX: 16.82 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.552%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $745.63 | 67.52 | 33.3 | $732.54 | Neutral | 0.68 |
| QQQ | $717.35 | 71.66 | 59.8 | $698.94 | Neutral | 0.76 |
| IWM | $283.75 | 53.69 | 54.6 | $280.83 | Neutral | 1.02 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.82 | 48.61 | 14.8 | $10.52 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| TNX | 45.52 | 65.43 | 69.6 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $415.24 | 44.85 | 23.6 | $416.65 | Neutral | 0.73 |
| DXY | 99.32 | 61.85 | 35.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.55 | 51.78 | 29.0 | $67.69 | Neutral | 0.81 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.3B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.49% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 55.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 73.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 47.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 40.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 38.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $96.05 (5d: -11.6%)
- Brent Crude: $103.07 | Spread: $7.02
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.41/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.13
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.33
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.569 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.602 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.347 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.736 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 79.72
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.88 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $117.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $738 (Spot: $745.63)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.55%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.98 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.32
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.57% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 34/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $3.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,929B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,178B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,170B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,278B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,331 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.455, GEX +7.3B, HY OAS 2.80%, breadth 55%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.13% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $96.05 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.57% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $49.41/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $142.54 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.08%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(May): ⏳ Pending
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(May): ⏳ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(May): ⏳ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(May): ⏳ Pending
- US Leading Index(MoM)(Apr): ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (14):
[1] Euro dips below 1.1600 with the focus shifting to Fed's Warsh swearing-in ceremony URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-eases-towards-11600-with-geopolitical-uncertainty-offsetting-upbeat-data-202605220958 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 12:12:20 Z
[2] Equities: Mixed signals as risk story shifts - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-mixed-signals-as-risk-story-shifts-bny-202605221209 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 12:09:21 Z
[3] Gold holds within weekly range as US-Iran talks remain in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-within-weekly-range-as-us-iran-talks-remain-in-focus-202605221204 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 12:04:01 Z
[4] Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) registered at 0.2% above expectations (0.1%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-gross-domestic-product-yoy-registered-at-02-above-expectations-01-in-1q-202605221200 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 12:00:04 Z
[5] Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) above expectations (-0.8%) in 1Q: Actual (-0.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-gross-domestic-product-qoq-above-expectations-08-in-1q-actual-06-202605221200 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 12:00:03 Z
[6] Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation below forecasts (0.17%) in May: Actual (0.13%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-1st-half-month-core-inflation-below-forecasts-017-in-may-actual-013-202605221200 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 12:00:02 Z
[7] Mexico 1st half-month Inflation below expectations (-0.15%) in May: Actual (-0.16%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-1st-half-month-inflation-below-expectations-015-in-may-actual-016-202605221200 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 12:00:02 Z
[8] British Pound: Soft retail data and curve repricing risks - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-soft-retail-data-and-curve-repricing-risks-bbh-202605221155 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 11:55:58 Z
[9] Gold: Rising Fed risks raise pullback potential - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rising-fed-risks-raise-pullback-potential-commerzbank-202605221144 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 11:44:11 Z
[10] Japanese Yen nears key 160 level against United States Dollar despite intervention risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-nears-key-160-level-against-united-states-dollar-despite-intervention-risks-202605221139 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 11:39:20 Z
[11] British Pound trades higher despite United Kingdom fiscal worries escalate URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-trades-higher-despite-united-kingdom-fiscal-worries-escalate-202605221139 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 11:39:05 Z
[12] Japanese Yen: Intervention risk near 160 against US Dollar - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-risk-near-160-against-us-dollar-ocbc-202605221134 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 11:34:43 Z
[13] India FX Reserves, USD dipped from previous $696.99B to $688.89B in May 11 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-fx-reserves-usd-dipped-from-previous-69699b-to-68889b-in-may-11-202605221130 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 11:30:07 Z
[14] US Dollar: Carry support persists on high yields - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-carry-support-persists-on-high-yields-mufg-202605221125 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 11:25:53 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Cleric says US faces 'weakness and political isolation' Time: 2026-05-22T12:12:17.106Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 83 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 274
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 42.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost