Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-22 06:00:15 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.455 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.88 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.3B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.80% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 55% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +10.2% growth optimism · real yield 2.13% restrictive |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.57 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.60 stretched, SPY/TNX +0.35 normal, SPY/Oil -0.74 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 137 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.48 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 34 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 80 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with dark pool, gamma, and credit leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 79/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.455; GEX positive at 7.3B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.8 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.12)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $744.13 | 50 SMA $695.08 | 200 SMA $678.29 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.94
- QQQ: $716.94 | 50 SMA $639.70 | 200 SMA $613.91 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $698.73
- IWM: $283.15 | 50 SMA $265.85 | 200 SMA $252.23 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $279.52
- VIX: 16.76 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.586%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $744.13 | 67.52 | 33.3 | $730.94 | Bearish | 0.48 |
| QQQ | $716.94 | 71.66 | 59.8 | $698.73 | Bearish | 0.41 |
| IWM | $283.15 | 53.69 | 54.6 | $279.52 | Neutral | 0.57 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.76 | 48.61 | 14.8 | $10.06 | Neutral | 0.82 |
| TNX | 45.86 | 65.43 | 69.6 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $416.20 | 44.85 | 23.6 | $416.77 | Neutral | 0.74 |
| DXY | 99.24 | 61.00 | 35.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $69.31 | 51.78 | 29.0 | $45.00 | Neutral | 0.87 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.3B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.49% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 55.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 73.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 47.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 40.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 38.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $97.23 (5d: -10.5%)
- Brent Crude: $104.09 | Spread: $6.86
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $48.23/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.13
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.33
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.569 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.602 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.347 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.736 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 79.72
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 842,729.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 741,263.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.88 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $117.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $744.13)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.59%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.24
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.57% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 34/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $3.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,929B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,178B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,170B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,278B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,205 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.455, GEX +7.3B, HY OAS 2.80%, breadth 55%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.13% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $97.23 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.57% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $48.23/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $142.54 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.08%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(May): ⏳ Pending
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(May): ⏳ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(May): ⏳ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(May): ⏳ Pending
- US Leading Index(MoM)(Apr): ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (20):
[1] US Dollar Index: Consolidation near resistance - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-consolidation-near-resistance-ocbc-202605220910 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 09:10:43 Z
[2] ECB: Euro area's Negotiated Wages rise 2.46% YoY in Q1 2026 vs. 2.95% in Q4 2025 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-euro-areas-negotiated-wages-rise-246-yoy-in-q1-2026-vs-295-in-q4-2025-202605220907 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 09:07:29 Z
[3] Japanese Yen: Under pressure as USD eyes 160.50 - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-under-pressure-as-usd-eyes-16050-societe-generale-202605220851 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 08:51:04 Z
[4] British Pound sits near two-week high vs weak JPY; bulls shrug off weak UK Retail Sales URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-sits-near-two-week-high-vs-weak-jpy-bulls-shrug-off-weak-uk-retail-sales-202605220849 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 08:49:50 Z
[5] Gold languishes near daily low; seems vulnerable amid Fed hike bets and bullish USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-weakens-as-hawkish-fed-outlook-and-iran-tensions-support-us-dollar-202605220416 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 08:42:33 Z
[6] Indian Rupee extends recovery as US-Iran deal optimism builds pressure on oil price URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-holds-onto-gains-on-intensified-us-iran-deal-optimism-202605220547 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 08:33:58 Z
[7] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD struggles around $76 amid US-Iran deal uncertainty URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-struggles-around-76-amid-us-iran-deal-uncertainty-202605220829 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 08:29:56 Z
[8] Indian Rupee: RBI signal slows depreciation - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rbi-signal-slows-depreciation-ocbc-202605220825 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 08:25:58 Z
[9] Euro: Consolidation versus US Dollar as downside momentum eases - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-consolidation-versus-us-dollar-as-downside-momentum-eases-uob-202605220809 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 08:09:35 Z
[10] Germany's IFO Business Climate unexpectedly improves to 84.9 in May vs. 84.2 estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germanys-ifo-business-climate-unexpectedly-improves-to-849-in-may-vs-842-estimates-202605220805 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 08:05:30 Z
[11] Germany IFO - Expectations above expectations (83.5) in May: Actual (83.8) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-ifo-expectations-above-expectations-835-in-may-actual-838-202605220800 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 08:00:29 Z
[12] Germany IFO - Current Assessment came in at 86.1, above expectations (85.1) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-ifo-current-assessment-came-in-at-861-above-expectations-851-in-may-202605220800 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 08:00:20 Z
[13] Germany IFO - Business Climate came in at 84.9, above expectations (84.2) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-ifo-business-climate-came-in-at-849-above-expectations-842-in-may-202605220800 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 08:00:09 Z
[14] Greece Current Account (YoY): €-2.344B (March) vs previous €-1.286B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-current-account-yoy-eu-2344b-march-vs-previous-eu-1286b-202605220759 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 07:59:47 Z
[15] Oil: Market whipsawed by US-Iran deal uncertainty - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-market-whipsawed-by-us-iran-deal-uncertainty-ing-202605220754 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 07:54:50 Z
[16] S&P 500: Modest gains with Iran-linked relief - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-modest-gains-with-iran-linked-relief-deutsche-bank-202605220747 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 07:47:11 Z
[17] Dow Jones futures advance on US-Iran talks optimism URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-advance-on-us-iran-talks-optimism-202605220741 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 07:41:36 Z
[18] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Upside stalls around 159.00 on US-Iran deal hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-upside-stalls-around-15900-on-us-iran-deal-hopes-202605220730 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 07:30:20 Z
[19] Japanese Yen: Energy and rates keep Yen under pressure - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-energy-and-rates-keep-yen-under-pressure-commerzbank-202605220726 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 07:26:04 Z
[20] USD/CHF Price Forecast: Sideways trading below 0.7900, awaiting news from Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-sideways-trading-below-07900-awaiting-news-from-iran-202605220716 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 07:16:19 Z
Iran War News
Updates (6):
[1] IRGC Navy says it coordinated passage of 35 ships through Hormuz Time: 2026-05-22T09:34:36.139Z
[2] UAE adviser says Hormuz control in Iran's hands would set dangerous precedent Time: 2026-05-22T09:23:15.721Z
[3] Iran internet blackout enters day 84, NetBlocks says Time: 2026-05-22T09:00:02.787Z
[4] Rubio says no country should accept Iran tolls in Hormuz Time: 2026-05-22T08:33:13.916Z
[5] Iran lawmaker says missiles should replace diplomats after US sanctions Time: 2026-05-22T08:28:54.685Z
[6] Germany preparing to join UK-led Hormuz security effort Time: 2026-05-22T07:59:58.708Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 83 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 2.1% of normal
- Throughput: 2.0% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS385 (+670% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $12.5 billion/day economic cost