Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-21 23:14:11 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.4% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (4 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.455 above 0.45 and rising — institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 0.79 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.3B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.80% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 55% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +9.7% growth optimism · real yield 2.13% restrictive |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.57 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.60 elevated, SPY/TNX +0.35 normal, SPY/Oil -0.74 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 137 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.48 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 34 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 80 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with dark pool, gamma, and credit leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.455 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 7.3B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.8 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $744.13 | 50 SMA $693.76 | 200 SMA $677.72 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.94
- QQQ: $716.94 | 50 SMA $637.56 | 200 SMA $613.14 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $698.73
- IWM: $283.15 | 50 SMA $265.25 | 200 SMA $251.93 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $279.52
- VIX: 16.76 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.586%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $744.13 | 67.79 | 35.8 | $730.94 | Bearish | 0.48 |
| QQQ | $716.94 | 73.11 | 62.8 | $698.73 | Bearish | 0.41 |
| IWM | $283.15 | 52.25 | 53.8 | $279.52 | Neutral | 0.57 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.76 | 53.58 | 14.3 | $10.06 | Neutral | 0.82 |
| TNX | 45.86 | 63.54 | 69.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $416.20 | 44.80 | 24.9 | $416.77 | Neutral | 0.74 |
| DXY | 99.24 | 61.02 | 35.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $69.31 | 53.09 | 29.4 | $45.00 | Neutral | 0.87 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.3B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.49% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 73.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 47.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 40.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 38.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $97.43 (5d: -7.6%)
- Brent Crude: $104.13 | Spread: $6.70
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $48.17/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.13
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.33
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.569 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.597 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | 0.347 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.737 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 79.72
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,437,092.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,512,613.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.79 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $590.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $744.13)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.59%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.24
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.57% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 34/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $3.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,929B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,176B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,171B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,276B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,657 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.455, GEX +7.3B, HY OAS 2.80%, breadth 55%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.13% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $97.43 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.57% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $48.17/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $142.54 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.08%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(May): ⏳ Pending
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(May): ⏳ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(May): ⏳ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(May): ⏳ Pending
- US Leading Index(MoM)(Apr): ⏳ Pending
Earnings:
- WMT: EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Tycoon Zanjani moved billions for Tehran through Binance - WSJ Time: 2026-05-22T02:39:36.779Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 82 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 2.0% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 450
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS240 (+380% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.8 billion/day economic cost