Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-21 22:00:19 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.3% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (4 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.434 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.78 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +6.4B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.80% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 54% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +9.5% growth optimism · real yield 2.18% restrictive |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.62 stretched, SPY/TNX +0.36 normal, SPY/Oil -0.74 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 132 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.42 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 36 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 82 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 74/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 74 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.434) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.434; GEX positive at 6.4B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.8 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $742.72 | 50 SMA $693.76 | 200 SMA $677.72 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.96
- QQQ: $714.03 | 50 SMA $637.56 | 200 SMA $613.14 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $698.68
- IWM: $282.35 | 50 SMA $265.25 | 200 SMA $251.93 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $279.52
- VIX: 16.75 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.586%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $742.72 ▼ | 67.79 | 35.8 | $730.96 | Bearish | 0.49 |
| QQQ | $714.03 ▼ | 73.11 | 62.8 | $698.68 | Bearish | 0.41 |
| IWM | $282.35 ▼ | 52.25 | 53.8 | $279.52 | Neutral | 0.57 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.75 ▼ | 53.58 | 14.3 | $10.00 | None | None |
| TNX | 45.86 | 63.54 | 69.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $416.90 | 44.80 | 24.9 | $416.77 | Neutral | 0.75 |
| DXY | 99.18 ▼ | 63.22 | 36.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $69.28 | 53.09 | 29.4 | $66.95 | Neutral | 0.88 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.434
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.38B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% ▲ (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.0% ▼
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.3% ▼
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.7% ▲
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.3% ▲
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 72.1% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 49.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 38.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 35.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $97.23 ▼ (5d: -7.0%)
- Brent Crude: $103.84 ▼ | Spread: $6.88
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3500/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $47.95/bbl ▼ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.26 ▲
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.34 ▲
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.558 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.618 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.357 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.742 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.53 ▲
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 ▼ (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,259,853.0 ▼
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,317,343.0 ▼
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.78 ▼ (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $562.8B ▼
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $738 (Spot: $742.72)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.59%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.18 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.96 ▼
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.59% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.44%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.29%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 36/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B ▲
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B ▲
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $3.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,929B ▼
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,178B ▼
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,170B ▼
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,286B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,467 ▼ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.18% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $97.23 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.59% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $47.95/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $142.65 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (738.98) reclaimed ZGL (731.00) — volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (738.56) dropped below ZGL (738.98) — expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.08%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Initial Jobless Claims: 209 vs Est. 210 (MISS) | Prev: 212
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index(May): -0.4 vs Est. 17.6 (MISS) | Prev: 26.7
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(May): 55.3 vs Est. 53.8 (BEAT) | Prev: 54.5
- S&P Global Services PMI(May): 50.9 vs Est. 51.1 (MISS) | Prev: 51.0
- 10-Year TIPS Auction: 2.169% | Prev: 1.896%
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): 4.3% vs Est. 4.0% (BEAT) | Prev: 4.0%
- Building Permits(Apr): 1.442 vs Est. 1.380 (BEAT) | Prev: 1.363
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,782 vs Est. 1,790 (MISS) | Prev: 1,776
- Fed's Balance Sheet: 6,714 | Prev: 6,729
- Housing Starts(Apr): 1.465 vs Est. 1.420 (BEAT) | Prev: 1.507
- Housing Starts(MoM)(Apr): -2.8% | Prev: 12.0%
- Philly Fed Employment(May): -2.8 | Prev: -5.1
- S&P Global Composite PMI(May): 51.7 | Prev: 51.7
Earnings:
- WMT: EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (14):
[1] Canadian Dollar declines as oil prices ease on rising US-Iran peace hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-declines-as-oil-prices-ease-on-rising-us-iran-peace-hopes-202605220110 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 01:10:57 Z
[2] New Zealand Dollar flat lines vs USD as bulls shrug off upbeat Retail Sales URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-flat-lines-vs-usd-as-bulls-shrug-off-upbeat-retail-sales-202605220107 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 01:07:14 Z
[3] Japanese Yen weakens on soft Japan CPI inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-weakens-on-soft-japan-cpi-inflation-data-202605220046 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 00:46:10 Z
[4] WTI remains below $97.00 as US-Iran peace hopes rise URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-remains-below-9700-as-us-iran-peace-hopes-rise-202605220035 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 00:35:38 Z
[5] Iranian official says no deal has been reached yet, but gaps have narrowed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iranian-official-says-no-deal-has-been-reached-yet-but-gaps-have-narrowed-202605220006 Published: Fri, 22 May 2026 00:06:01 Z
[6] US President Donald Trump will swear in Kevin Warsh on Friday to lead Fed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-donald-trump-will-swear-in-kevin-warsh-on-friday-to-lead-fed-202605212340 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 23:40:07 Z
[7] Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) declined to 1.9% in April from previous 2.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-national-cpi-ex-food-energy-yoy-declined-to-19-in-april-from-previous-24-202605212339 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 23:39:41 Z
[8] Japan's National CPI rises 1.4% YoY in April, Core CPI climbs less than expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-national-cpi-rises-14-yoy-in-april-core-cpi-climbs-less-than-expected-202605212330 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 23:30:48 Z
[9] Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) below forecasts (1.7%) in April: Actual (1.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-national-cpi-ex-fresh-food-yoy-below-forecasts-17-in-april-actual-14-202605212330 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 23:30:02 Z
[10] Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 1.5% to 1.4% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-national-consumer-price-index-yoy-fell-from-previous-15-to-14-in-april-202605212330 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 23:30:01 Z
[11] Pound Sterling holds up as the BoE talks hawkish into a slowdown URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-holds-up-as-the-boe-talks-hawkish-into-a-slowdown-202605212327 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 23:27:42 Z
[12] Euro holds the line as its own PMIs slide into contraction URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-the-line-as-its-own-pmis-slide-into-contraction-202605212324 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 23:24:28 Z
[13] Gold flatlines below $4,550 as markets await US-Iran ceasefire progress URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-flatlines-below-4-550-as-markets-await-us-iran-ceasefire-progress-202605212324 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 23:24:04 Z
[14] Australian Dollar shrugs off a jobs slump to chase a ceasefire mirage URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-shrugs-off-a-jobs-slump-to-chase-a-ceasefire-mirage-202605212319 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 23:19:20 Z
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] US sanctions Iran envoy, others over Hezbollah influence in Lebanon Time: 2026-05-22T01:14:00.000Z
[2] UKMTO says Hormuz threat level remains 'critical' Time: 2026-05-22T00:35:00.000Z
[3] The strange afterlife of Iran's firebrand president Time: 2026-05-22T00:11:00.000Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 82 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 2.0% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 42.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS320 (+540% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost