Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-21 14:06:28 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.4% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.434 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.72 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +6.4B strong suppression
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.80% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose
Breadth	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Breadth 54% — mixed participation
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +9.7% growth optimism · real yield 2.18% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.62 stretched, SPY/TNX +0.34 normal, SPY/Oil -0.75 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 17.0 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 132 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.38 dealer stress
Inflation	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Stagflation score 36 — moderate, watching
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 82 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 75/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 75 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.434) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.434; GEX positive at 6.4B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.0 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $743.94 | 50 SMA $693.76 | 200 SMA $677.72 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.96
QQQ: $716.17 | 50 SMA $637.56 | 200 SMA $613.14 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $698.95
IWM: $282.90 | 50 SMA $265.25 | 200 SMA $251.93 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $277.96
VIX: 16.98 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.556%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$743.94	67.79	35.8	$730.96	Bearish	0.45
QQQ	$716.17	73.11	62.8	$698.95	Neutral	0.51
IWM	$282.90	52.25	53.8	$277.96	Neutral	0.58

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	16.98	53.58	14.3	$10.53	Neutral	0.86
TNX	45.56	63.54	69.9	-	-	-
GLD	$417.79	44.80	24.9	$416.76	Neutral	0.72
DXY	99.16	62.90	36.3	-	-	-
SLV	$69.54	53.09	29.4	$48.66	Neutral	0.85

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.434
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.38B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.95%
2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.2%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.9%
Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
Mag 7 Concentration: 32.8%
Top 10 Concentration: 43.4%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Real Estate	96.4%	0/0
Financials	73.5%	0/0
Technology	72.3%	0/0
Energy	63.2%	0/0
Communication Services	60.0%	0/0
Consumer Staples	55.9%	0/0
Industrials	47.8%	0/0
Health Care	35.2%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	33.9%	0/0
Materials	33.3%	0/0
Utilities	26.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: FALLING
WTI Crude: $96.00 (5d: -8.9%)
Brent Crude: $102.34 | Spread: $6.34
RBOB Gasoline: $3.2600/gal
Heating Oil: $3.6900/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.94/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.92
UNG (Nat Gas): $11.41

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.561	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.619	stretched
SPY / TNX	0.345	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.751	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.53
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,503,773.0
0DTE Put Volume: 2,537,580.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.72 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $449.4B
Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $743.94)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.56%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.98 (Normal)
DXY: 99.16
Growth vs Value: 0.96
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.59% (Above Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.44%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.29%
Stagflation Risk Score: 36/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $24.9B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,865B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,187B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,175B
Global Net Liquidity: $17,227B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,870 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.18% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
[CRITICAL] WTI crude at $96.00 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
[WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.59% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.94/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $142.28 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] SPY (738.98) reclaimed ZGL (731.00) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] SPY (738.56) dropped below ZGL (738.98) — expect amplified downside moves.

Seasonality

Current Month: May
Average Return: +1.09%
Median Return: +1.61%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Initial Jobless Claims: 209 vs Est. 210 (MISS) | Prev: 212
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index(May): -0.4 vs Est. 17.6 (MISS) | Prev: 26.7
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(May): 55.3 vs Est. 53.8 (BEAT) | Prev: 54.5
S&P Global Services PMI(May): 50.9 vs Est. 51.1 (MISS) | Prev: 51.0
10-Year TIPS Auction: 2.169% | Prev: 1.896%
Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): 4.3% vs Est. 4.0% (BEAT) | Prev: 4.0%
Building Permits(Apr): 1.442 vs Est. 1.380 (BEAT) | Prev: 1.363
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,782 vs Est. 1,790 (MISS) | Prev: 1,776
Housing Starts(Apr): 1.465 vs Est. 1.420 (BEAT) | Prev: 1.507
Housing Starts(MoM)(Apr): -2.8% | Prev: 12.0%
Philly Fed Employment(May): -2.8 | Prev: -5.1
S&P Global Composite PMI(May): 51.7 | Prev: 51.7

Earnings:

WMT: EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.0% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
Retail Sales: 2026-06-17

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 82 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily — 10.0% of normal
Throughput: 15.0% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 285
Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 36.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS275 (+450% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost