Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-21 12:30:25 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.434 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.83 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +6.4B strong suppression
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.80% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose
Breadth	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Breadth 52% — mixed participation
Energy	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +9.3% growth optimism · real yield 2.18% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.54 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.62 stretched, SPY/TNX +0.37 normal, SPY/Oil -0.74 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 17.2 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 132 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.44 dealer stress
Inflation	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Stagflation score 36 — moderate, watching
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 82 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 68/100 (Mixed) |

Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $100, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.434; GEX positive at 6.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.2 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.14)

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $738.77 | 50 SMA $693.76 | 200 SMA $677.72 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.97
QQQ: $709.69 | 50 SMA $637.56 | 200 SMA $613.14 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $698.82
IWM: $280.27 | 50 SMA $265.25 | 200 SMA $251.93 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $279.42
VIX: 17.24 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.599%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$738.77	67.79	35.8	$730.97	Neutral	0.91
QQQ	$709.69	73.11	62.8	$698.82	Neutral	1.04
IWM	$280.27	52.25	53.8	$279.42	Neutral	1.23

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.24	53.58	14.3	$10.53	Neutral	0.81
TNX	45.99	63.54	69.9	-	-	-
GLD	$414.56	44.80	24.9	$416.79	Neutral	0.93
DXY	99.41	65.32	37.6	-	-	-
SLV	$68.52	53.09	29.4	$40.27	Neutral	0.95

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.434
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.38B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.95%
2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 52.0%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.9%
Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
Mag 7 Concentration: 32.7%
Top 10 Concentration: 43.4%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Real Estate	92.9%	0/0
Energy	84.2%	0/0
Technology	70.8%	0/0
Financials	66.2%	0/0
Communication Services	60.0%	0/0
Consumer Staples	52.9%	0/0
Industrials	44.8%	0/0
Health Care	35.2%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	28.8%	0/0
Utilities	26.7%	0/0
Materials	20.8%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: SHOCK
WTI Crude: $100.39 (5d: -4.8%)
Brent Crude: $106.89 | Spread: $6.50
RBOB Gasoline: $3.3900/gal
Heating Oil: $3.8500/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $48.43/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $59.69
UNG (Nat Gas): $11.52

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.536	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.62	stretched
SPY / TNX	0.371	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.736	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.53
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 2,171,629.0
0DTE Put Volume: 1,807,573.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.83 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $294.0B
Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $738.77)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.60%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
DXY: 99.41
Growth vs Value: 0.96
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.59% (Above Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.44%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.29%
Stagflation Risk Score: 36/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $24.9B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,865B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,164B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,168B
Global Net Liquidity: $17,197B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,107 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[CRITICAL] WTI crude at $100.39 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
[WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.18% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.736 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
[CRITICAL] WTI crude at $100.39 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
[WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.59% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $48.43/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $147.01 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] SPY (738.98) reclaimed ZGL (731.00) — volatility dampening resumes.

Seasonality

Current Month: May
Average Return: +1.06%
Median Return: +1.61%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Initial Jobless Claims: 209 vs Est. 210 (MISS) | Prev: 212
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index(May): -0.4 vs Est. 17.6 (MISS) | Prev: 26.7
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(May): 55.3 vs Est. 53.8 (BEAT) | Prev: 54.5
S&P Global Services PMI(May): 50.9 vs Est. 51.1 (MISS) | Prev: 51.0
Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): 4.3% vs Est. 4.0% (BEAT) | Prev: 4.0%
Building Permits(Apr): 1.442 vs Est. 1.380 (BEAT) | Prev: 1.363
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,782 vs Est. 1,790 (MISS) | Prev: 1,776
Housing Starts(Apr): 1.465 vs Est. 1.420 (BEAT) | Prev: 1.507
Housing Starts(MoM)(Apr): -2.8% | Prev: 12.0%
Philly Fed Employment(May): -2.8 | Prev: -5.1
S&P Global Composite PMI(May): 51.7 | Prev: 51.7

Earnings:

WMT: EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.0% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
Retail Sales: 2026-06-17

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[BREAKING] [1] Trump says US will get Iran's enriched uranium, won't accept Hormuz tolls Time: 2026-05-21T16:15:10.276Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 82 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 2.1% of normal
Throughput: 2.0% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 0
Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 26.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS200 (+300% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost