Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-21 11:28:04 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.434 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.86 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +6.4B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.80% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 52% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +9.5% growth optimism · real yield 2.18% restrictive |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.54 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.62 stretched, SPY/TNX +0.37 normal, SPY/Oil -0.73 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 132 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.42 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 36 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 82 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 68/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $101, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.434; GEX positive at 6.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.4 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.14)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $738.91 | 50 SMA $693.76 | 200 SMA $677.72 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $731.0
- QQQ: $709.59 | 50 SMA $637.56 | 200 SMA $613.14 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $698.99
- IWM: $280.26 | 50 SMA $265.25 | 200 SMA $251.93 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $279.44
- VIX: 17.35 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.615%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $738.91 | 67.79 | 35.8 | $731.00 | Neutral | 0.90 |
| QQQ | $709.59 | 73.11 | 62.8 | $698.99 | Neutral | 1.05 |
| IWM | $280.26 | 52.25 | 53.8 | $279.44 | Neutral | 1.28 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.35 | 53.58 | 14.3 | $10.54 | Neutral | 0.79 |
| TNX | 46.15 ▲ | 63.54 | 69.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $413.27 | 44.80 | 24.9 | $416.79 | Neutral | 1.05 |
| DXY | 99.43 | 65.47 | 37.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.05 | 53.09 | 29.4 | $40.27 | Neutral | 1.00 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.434
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.38B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 52.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 92.9% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 72.3% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 69.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 52.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 44.8% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 27.1% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 25.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $101.38 (5d: -3.8%)
- Brent Crude: $107.69 | Spread: $6.31
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.4100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $48.42/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.78
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.54
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.538 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.617 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.372 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.726 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.53
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,659,443.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,432,329.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.86 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $228.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $738.91)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.62%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.04 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.43
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.59% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.44%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.29%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 36/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $24.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,865B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,163B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,166B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,195B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,089 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime SHOCK with crack spread at $48.42/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.38 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.18% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.726 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.38 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.59% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $48.42/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $149.27 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.05%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Initial Jobless Claims: 209 vs Est. 210 (MISS) | Prev: 212
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index(May): -0.4 vs Est. 17.6 (MISS) | Prev: 26.7
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(May): 55.3 vs Est. 53.8 (BEAT) | Prev: 54.5
- S&P Global Services PMI(May): 50.9 vs Est. 51.1 (MISS) | Prev: 51.0
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): 4.3% vs Est. 4.0% (BEAT) | Prev: 4.0%
- Building Permits(Apr): 1.442 vs Est. 1.380 (BEAT) | Prev: 1.363
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,782 vs Est. 1,790 (MISS) | Prev: 1,776
- Housing Starts(Apr): 1.465 vs Est. 1.420 (BEAT) | Prev: 1.507
- Housing Starts(MoM)(Apr): -2.8% | Prev: 12.0%
- Philly Fed Employment(May): -2.8 | Prev: -5.1
- S&P Global Composite PMI(May): 51.7 | Prev: 51.7
Earnings:
- WMT: EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity declined to 9 in May from previous 10 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-kansas-fed-manufacturing-activity-declined-to-9-in-may-from-previous-10-202605211502 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 15:02:50 Z
[2] Canada: Gold price surge supports exports - RBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-gold-price-surge-supports-exports-rbc-202605211459 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 14:59:32 Z
[3] Gold slips as Iran uranium demands complicate US-Iran negotiations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-slips-as-iran-uranium-demands-complicate-us-iran-negotiations-202605211229 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 14:44:48 Z
[4] Indonesian Rupiah: BI jumbo hike buys time - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-bi-jumbo-hike-buys-time-ocbc-202605211444 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 14:44:30 Z
[5] Silver Price Forecast: Bears retain near-term control as RSI slips below 50 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-bears-retain-near-term-control-as-rsi-slips-below-50-202605211440 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 14:40:38 Z
[6] United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above forecasts (96B) in May 15: Actual (101B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-eia-natural-gas-storage-change-above-forecasts-96b-in-may-15-actual-101b-202605211430 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 14:30:03 Z
[7] Hungarian Forint: MNB stance shifts focus to bonds over FX - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hungarian-forint-mnb-stance-shifts-focus-to-bonds-over-fx-bny-202605211429 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 14:29:15 Z
[8] Euro: Yield spread pressure on EUR - ABN AMRO URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-yield-spread-pressure-on-eur-abn-amro-202605211420 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 14:20:17 Z
[9] Japanese Yen: Intervention threat and hawkish BoJ support Yen - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-threat-and-hawkish-boj-support-yen-bbh-202605211411 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 14:11:05 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Germany charges alleged IRGC agent over plots against Jewish figures Time: 2026-05-21T15:09:43.876Z
[2] Iran denies new Khamenei order to keep uranium at home - Al Jazeera Time: 2026-05-21T15:02:32.706Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 82 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 2.1% of normal
- Throughput: 2.0% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.4 billion/day economic cost