Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-21 10:25:44 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.434 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.85 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +6.4B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.86% moderate, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 50% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +8.8% growth optimism · real yield 2.18% restrictive |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.54 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.62 stretched, SPY/TNX +0.37 normal, SPY/Oil -0.73 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 132 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.48 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 36 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 82 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 63/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $101, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.434; GEX positive at 6.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.7 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $737.86 | 50 SMA $693.76 | 200 SMA $677.72 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $738.96
- QQQ: $707.61 | 50 SMA $637.56 | 200 SMA $613.14 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $708.95
- IWM: $279.91 | 50 SMA $265.25 | 200 SMA $251.93 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $261.03
- VIX: 17.71 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.615%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $737.86 | 67.79 | 35.8 | $738.96 | Neutral | 0.99 |
| QQQ | $707.61 | 73.11 | 62.8 | $708.95 | Neutral | 1.23 |
| IWM | $279.91 | 52.25 | 53.8 | $261.03 | Neutral | 1.40 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.71 | 53.58 | 14.3 | $10.54 | Neutral | 0.75 |
| TNX | 46.15 ▲ | 63.54 | 69.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $413.26 | 44.80 | 24.9 | $416.76 | Neutral | 1.03 |
| DXY | 99.43 | 65.47 | 37.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.93 | 53.09 | 29.4 | $59.50 | Neutral | 0.99 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.434
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.38B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.86% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 92.9% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 66.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 44.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 41.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 25.4% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 20.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $101.39 (5d: -3.8%)
- Brent Crude: $107.75 | Spread: $6.36
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.4200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $48.83/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.97
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.46
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.541 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.621 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.372 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.731 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.53
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 965,803.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 819,022.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.85 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $131.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $737.86)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.62%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.04 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.43
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.59% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.44%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.29%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 36/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $24.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,865B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,166B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,167B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,198B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,977 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.39 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.18% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.731 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.39 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.59% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $48.83/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $147.47 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.06%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Initial Jobless Claims: 209 vs Est. 210 (MISS) | Prev: 212
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index(May): -0.4 vs Est. 17.6 (MISS) | Prev: 26.7
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(May): 55.3 vs Est. 53.8 (BEAT) | Prev: 54.5
- S&P Global Services PMI(May): 50.9 vs Est. 51.1 (MISS) | Prev: 51.0
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): ⏳ Pending
- Building Permits(Apr): 1.442 vs Est. 1.380 (BEAT) | Prev: 1.363
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,782 vs Est. 1,790 (MISS) | Prev: 1,776
- Housing Starts(Apr): 1.465 vs Est. 1.420 (BEAT) | Prev: 1.507
- Housing Starts(MoM)(Apr): -2.8% | Prev: 12.0%
- Philly Fed Employment(May): -2.8 | Prev: -5.1
- S&P Global Composite PMI(May): 51.7 | Prev: 51.7
Earnings:
- WMT: EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] Eurozone Consumer Confidence above expectations (-20.8) in May: Actual (-19) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-consumer-confidence-above-expectations-208-in-may-actual-19-202605211402 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 14:02:16 Z
[2] Breaking: US flash S&P Composite PMI confirmed at 51.7 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-sp-global-pmi-expected-to-show-resilient-business-activity-in-may-202605210900 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 13:58:12 Z
[3] British Pound: UK support plan and soft PMIs weigh - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-uk-support-plan-and-soft-pmis-weigh-bny-202605211352 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 13:52:27 Z
[4] United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered at 55.3 above expectations (54) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-registered-at-553-above-expectations-54-in-may-202605211345 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 13:45:05 Z
[5] United States S&P Global Services PMI below forecasts (51) in May: Actual (50.9) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-sp-global-services-pmi-below-forecasts-51-in-may-actual-509-202605211345 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 13:45:02 Z
[6] United States S&P Global Composite PMI: 51.7 (May) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-sp-global-composite-pmi-517-may-202605211345 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 13:45:01 Z
[7] British Pound trades cautiously against the Japanese Yen ahead of Japan CPI and UK Retail Sales URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-trades-cautiously-against-the-japanese-yen-ahead-of-japan-cpi-and-uk-retail-sales-202605211344 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 13:44:59 Z
[8] Oil: US data highlight tightening supplies - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-us-data-highlight-tightening-supplies-ing-202605211338 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 13:38:52 Z
[9] US Dollar: Fed shift and AI-driven risk backdrop - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-shift-and-ai-driven-risk-backdrop-mufg-202605211323 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 13:23:17 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 82 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 2.1% of normal
- Throughput: 2.0% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS141 (+182% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost