Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-21 08:30:54 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.434 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.80 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +6.4B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.86% moderate, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 53% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +7.3% growth optimism · real yield 2.18% restrictive |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.54 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.62 stretched, SPY/TNX +0.37 normal, SPY/Oil -0.74 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 132 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.45 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 36 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 82 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 63/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $101, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.434; GEX positive at 6.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.7 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.14)
What Changed
- Health score ↓ 10 points (74 → 63)
Key Levels
- SPY: $738.89 | 50 SMA $693.76 | 200 SMA $677.72 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $738.92
- QQQ: $709.46 | 50 SMA $637.56 | 200 SMA $613.14 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $708.87
- IWM: $278.02 | 50 SMA $265.25 | 200 SMA $251.93 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $279.46
- VIX: 17.71 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.623%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $738.89 ▲ | 67.79 ▲ | 35.8 ▼ | $738.92 | Neutral | 0.71 |
| QQQ | $709.46 ▲ | 73.11 ▲ | 62.8 ▲ | $708.87 | Neutral | 0.81 |
| IWM | $278.02 ▼ | 52.25 ▲ | 53.8 ▲ | $279.46 | Bearish | 1.56 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.71 ▲ | 53.58 ▲ | 14.3 ▼ | $10.54 | Neutral | 0.76 |
| TNX | 46.23 ▲ | 63.54 ▼ | 69.9 ▲ | - | - | - |
| GLD | $413.59 ▼ | 44.80 ▼ | 24.9 ▼ | $416.69 | Neutral | 0.75 |
| DXY | 99.35 ▲ | 64.74 ▲ | 37.1 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.74 ▼ | 53.09 ▲ | 29.4 ▼ | $40.27 | Neutral | 0.88 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.434
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.38B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.86% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 56.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 27/28 |
| Energy | 84.2% | 16/19 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 48/65 |
| Financials | 72.1% | 49/68 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 11/20 |
| Consumer Staples | 50.0% | 17/34 |
| Industrials | 47.8% | 32/67 |
| Health Care | 35.2% | 19/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 32.2% | 19/59 |
| Materials | 25.0% | 6/24 |
| Utilities | 23.3% | 7/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK ◆
- WTI Crude: $100.99 ▲ (5d: -4.2% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $107.31 ▲ | Spread: $6.32 ▼
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.4100/gal ▲
- Heating Oil: $3.8900/gal ▲
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $48.95/bbl ▼ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.80
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.49
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.539 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.62 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.372 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.738 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.53
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 ▲ (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0 ▼
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0 ▼
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.80 (No 0DTE Flow Yet ◆)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $424.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $738.89)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.62% ▲
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.05 ▲ (Normal)
- DXY: 99.35 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.96 ▲
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.59% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.44%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.29%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 36/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $24.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,865B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,182B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,174B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,221B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,040 ▼ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.18% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.738 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $98.72 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.59% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $49.68/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $144.27 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.07%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Initial Jobless Claims: 209 vs Est. 210 (MISS) | Prev: 212
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index(May): -0.4 vs Est. 17.6 (MISS) | Prev: 26.7
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(May): ⏳ Pending
- S&P Global Services PMI(May): ⏳ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): ⏳ Pending
- Building Permits(Apr): 1.442 vs Est. 1.380 (BEAT) | Prev: 1.363
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,782 vs Est. 1,790 (MISS) | Prev: 1,776
- Housing Starts(Apr): 1.465 vs Est. 1.420 (BEAT) | Prev: 1.507
- Housing Starts(MoM)(Apr): -2.8% | Prev: 12.0%
- Philly Fed Employment(May): -2.8 | Prev: -5.1
Earnings:
- WMT: EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] US Dollar Index: Consolidation below key resistance - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-consolidation-below-key-resistance-ocbc-202605211205 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 12:05:11 Z
[2] Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.5%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-retail-sales-mom-came-in-at-01-below-expectations-05-in-march-202605211200 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 12:00:05 Z
[3] Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 2.9% below forecasts (3.1%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-retail-sales-yoy-came-in-at-29-below-forecasts-31-in-march-202605211200 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 12:00:05 Z
[4] US S&P Global PMI expected to show resilient business activity in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-sp-global-pmi-expected-to-show-resilient-business-activity-in-may-202605210900 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 12:00:00 Z
[5] British Pound: Rebound on easing fiscal and inflation fears - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-rebound-on-easing-fiscal-and-inflation-fears-mufg-202605211149 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 11:49:54 Z
[6] Australian Dollar underperforms due to risk-off mood, weak Australia labor market data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-underperforms-due-to-risk-off-mood-weak-australia-labor-market-data-202605211147 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 11:47:07 Z
[7] Euro wavers above eight-week lows with US preliminary S&P Global PMIs on tap URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-wavers-above-eight-week-lows-with-us-preliminary-sp-global-pmis-on-tap-202605211142 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 11:42:42 Z
[8] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP declines against US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-declines-against-us-dollar-202605211141 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 11:41:33 Z
[9] Fed: FOMC minutes back extended hold - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-fomc-minutes-back-extended-hold-td-securities-202605211137 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 11:37:25 Z
[10] IEA Chief Birol: Oil markets could enter red zone in July-August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iea-chief-birol-oil-markets-could-enter-red-zone-in-july-august-202605211124 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 11:24:09 Z
[11] Australian Dollar: Soft data but bullish year-end view - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-soft-data-but-bullish-year-end-view-ing-202605211122 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 11:22:18 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 82 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 2.1% of normal
- Throughput: 2.1% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 350
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS115 (+130% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost