Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-20 13:23:06 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (3 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.423 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +5.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.86% moderate, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 53% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +7.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.13% restrictive |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.77 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.6 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 136 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.40 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 41 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 85 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and carry) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 74/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 74 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.423) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.423 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.6 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.1)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $739.78 | 50 SMA $692.47 | 200 SMA $677.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.96
- QQQ: $710.25 | 50 SMA $635.46 | 200 SMA $612.39 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $702.09
- IWM: $278.91 | 50 SMA $264.72 | 200 SMA $251.62 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $275.99
- VIX: 17.64 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.580%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $739.78 ▼ | 67.57 | 36.1 | $730.96 | Neutral | 0.55 |
| QQQ | $710.25 ▼ | 71.53 | 61.1 | $702.09 | Neutral | 0.65 |
| IWM | $278.91 ▼ | 51.12 | 41.0 | $275.99 | Neutral | 1.44 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.64 ▼ | 45.83 | 14.6 | $10.54 | Neutral | 0.88 |
| TNX | 45.80 | 70.58 | 51.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $416.35 ▲ | 45.12 | 27.3 | $416.79 | Neutral | 0.87 |
| DXY | 99.17 ▲ | 64.70 ▲ | 36.3 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.88 ▲ | 53.07 | 30.7 | $68.86 | Neutral | 1.01 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.423
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.07B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.86% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.54% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 52.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 27/28 |
| Energy | 94.7% | 18/19 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 48/65 |
| Financials | 69.1% | 47/68 |
| Consumer Staples | 52.9% | 18/34 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Industrials | 49.3% | 33/67 |
| Health Care | 33.3% | 18/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 28.8% | 17/59 |
| Utilities | 23.3% | 7/30 |
| Materials | 20.8% | 5/24 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $97.71 ▼ (5d: -3.4% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $104.66 ▲ | Spread: $6.95 ▲
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3800/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $50.55/bbl ▲ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $60.13 ▼
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.47 ▼
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.535 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.628 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.361 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.765 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 85.32
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 ▲ (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,449,471.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,823,908.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.74 ▼ (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $316.1B ▲
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $739.78)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.7% (as of 2026-05-13)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.58%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.17 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.96 ▼
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.66% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.49%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 41/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $12.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,877B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,183B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,174B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,235B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,311 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.13% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.753 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $97.78 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.66% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $50.48/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $142.7 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Breadth crossed above 50% (54% >50d SMA) — participation broadening, bullish reversal signal.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.05%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: -7.863 vs Est. -2.500 (MISS) | Prev: -4.306
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -1.604 | Prev: -1.702
Earnings:
- NVDA: EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑4.0% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (3):
[1] United States 20-Year Bond Auction rose from previous 4.883% to 5.122% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-20-year-bond-auction-rose-from-previous-4883-to-5122-202605201704 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 17:04:47 Z
[2] US Oil exports drain crude stockpiles - Bloomberg URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-oil-exports-drain-crude-stockpiles-bloomberg-202605201633 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 16:33:28 Z
[3] Fed Minutes expected to shed light on April's unusual policy division URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-minutes-to-provide-fresh-clues-as-markets-reassess-interest-rate-expectations-202605201315 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 16:15:00 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[BREAKING] [1] US redirects Iranian tanker in Gulf of Oman, CENTCOM says Time: 2026-05-20T17:08:47.884Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled