Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-20 11:26:38 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (3 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.423 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +5.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.83% moderate, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 48% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +8.1% growth optimism · real yield 2.13% restrictive |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.79 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 136 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.26 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 41 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 85 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and carry) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 70/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.423 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 48% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.7 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.11)
What Changed
- Health score ↑ 6 points (64 → 70)
Key Levels
- SPY: $739.93 | 50 SMA $692.47 | 200 SMA $677.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.96
- QQQ: $711.08 | 50 SMA $635.46 | 200 SMA $612.39 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $702.16
- IWM: $278.40 | 50 SMA $264.72 | 200 SMA $251.62 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $275.93
- VIX: 17.70 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.588%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $739.93 ▼ | 67.57 | 36.1 | $730.96 | Neutral | 0.56 |
| QQQ | $711.08 ▼ | 71.53 | 61.1 | $702.16 | Neutral | 0.65 |
| IWM | $278.40 ▼ | 51.12 | 41.0 | $275.93 | Bearish | 1.70 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.70 ▲ | 45.83 | 14.6 | $10.54 | Neutral | 0.87 |
| TNX | 45.88 ▲ | 70.58 | 51.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $416.21 ▼ | 45.12 | 27.3 | $416.91 | Neutral | 0.87 |
| DXY | 98.99 ▼ | 61.69 ▼ | 38.0 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.64 ▼ | 53.07 | 30.7 | $59.44 | Neutral | 0.99 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.423
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.07B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.83% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.54% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 47.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 52.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 18/19 |
| Real Estate | 89.3% | 25/28 |
| Technology | 67.7% | 44/65 |
| Financials | 63.2% | 43/68 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 11/20 |
| Consumer Staples | 44.1% | 15/34 |
| Industrials | 35.8% | 24/67 |
| Health Care | 33.3% | 18/54 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 8/30 |
| Materials | 25.0% | 6/24 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 18.6% | 11/59 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED ◆
- WTI Crude: $97.42 ▼ (5d: -3.7% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $103.78 ▼ | Spread: $6.36 ▼
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3800/gal ▼
- Heating Oil: $3.8100/gal ▼
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $50.56/bbl ▼ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $60.26 ▼
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.53 ▲
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.539 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.611 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.355 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.785 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 85.32
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,752,025.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,126,663.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.64 ▲ (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $213.0B ▲
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $739.93)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.7% (as of 2026-05-13)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.59% ▲
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 ▲ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.99 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.96 ▲
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.66% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.49%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 41/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $12.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,877B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,159B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,167B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,204B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,263 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $100.54 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.13% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.773 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $100.54 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.66% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $51.08/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $144.93 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.02%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: -7.863 vs Est. -2.500 (MISS) | Prev: -4.306
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -1.604 | Prev: -1.702
Earnings:
- NVDA: EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑4.0% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] BoE's Bailey: We have a softening picture for growth URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boes-bailey-we-have-a-softening-picture-for-growth-202605201450 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 14:50:07 Z
[2] Malaysia: Cautious exports outlook with strong surplus - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-cautious-exports-outlook-with-strong-surplus-uob-202605201442 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 14:42:48 Z
[3] United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change below forecasts (-2.9M) in May 15: Actual (-7.864M) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-eia-crude-oil-stocks-change-below-forecasts-29m-in-may-15-actual-7864m-202605201430 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 14:30:03 Z
[4] Gold steadies as markets balance retreat in US yields with hawkish Fed outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-steadies-as-markets-balance-retreat-in-us-yields-with-fed-hawkish-outlook-202605201153 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 14:25:37 Z
[5] Canadian Dollar remains pressured as hawkish Fed bets and Iran tensions support the US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-remains-pressured-as-hawkish-fed-bets-and-iran-tensions-support-the-us-dollar-202605201416 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 14:18:10 Z
[6] CEE FX: Negative sentiment weighs on currencies - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cee-fx-negative-sentiment-weighs-on-currencies-ing-202605201415 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 14:15:30 Z
[7] Fed Minutes set to reveal how divided policymakers were in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-minutes-to-provide-fresh-clues-as-markets-reassess-interest-rate-expectations-202605201315 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 14:15:00 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Israel army chief says military on 'highest alert' over Iran war Time: 2026-05-20T15:10:52.902Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled