Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-20 09:38:01 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 40% (2 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.423 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | GEX +5.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.83% moderate, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 45% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +7.8% growth optimism · real yield 2.13% restrictive |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | SPY/Oil -0.75 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 18.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 136 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.26 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 41 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.8% stable, MOVE 85 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 66/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $102, watch for margin compression); DIX rising to 0.423 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.11)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $734.80 | 50 SMA $692.47 | 200 SMA $677.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.99
- QQQ: $704.46 | 50 SMA $635.46 | 200 SMA $612.39 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $701.8
- IWM: $274.20 | 50 SMA $264.72 | 200 SMA $251.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $275.94
- VIX: 18.12 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.653%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $734.80 ▼ | 67.57 | 36.1 | $730.99 | Neutral | 0.92 |
| QQQ | $704.46 ▼ | 71.53 | 61.1 | $701.80 | Neutral | 1.00 |
| IWM | $274.20 ▲ | 51.12 | 41.0 | $275.94 | Bearish | 3.63 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.12 ▲ | 45.83 | 14.6 | $10.54 | Neutral | 0.85 |
| TNX | 46.53 ▼ | 70.58 | 51.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $411.83 ▼ | 45.12 | 27.3 | $417.09 | Neutral | 1.32 |
| DXY | 99.39 ▲ | 67.97 ▲ | 35.7 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.71 ▼ | 53.07 | 30.7 | $40.25 | Neutral | 1.12 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.423
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.07B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.83% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.54% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 45.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 52.4%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 490
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 18/19 |
| Real Estate | 88.5% | 23/26 |
| Technology | 65.6% | 42/64 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 11/20 |
| Financials | 50.0% | 33/66 |
| Consumer Staples | 47.1% | 16/34 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 22/67 |
| Health Care | 31.4% | 16/51 |
| Utilities | 30.0% | 9/30 |
| Materials | 21.7% | 5/23 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 19.0% | 11/58 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $101.92 ▲ (5d: +0.7% ▲)
- Brent Crude: $108.70 ▲ | Spread: $6.78 ▼
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.5100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $52.22/bbl ▼ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $61.62 ▼
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.72 ▲
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.513 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.601 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.387 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.753 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 85.32
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 116,782.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 129,070.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.11 ▲ (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $18.1B ▲
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $734.80)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.7% (as of 2026-05-13)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.65% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.08 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 99.39 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.96 ▼
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.66% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.49%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 41/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $12.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,877B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,176B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,176B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,229B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,248 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime SHOCK with crack spread at $52.28/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.13% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.86 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.753 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.86 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.66% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $52.28/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $149.45 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.03%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: ⏳ Pending
Earnings:
- NVDA: EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iran tightens control over Hormuz with checkpoints, vetting, 'fees' - Reuters Time: 2026-05-20T12:56:55.150Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled