Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-19 09:01:05 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 50% (3 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.407 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | GEX +5.7B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.80% moderate, NFCI -0.524 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 51% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +4.7% growth optimism · real yield 2.10% restrictive |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | SPY/Oil -0.68 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 138 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.09 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 42 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.9% stable, MOVE 86 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 62/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $103, watch for margin compression); DIX falling to 0.407 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.9 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.12)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $736.37 | 50 SMA $691.37 | 200 SMA $676.61 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $738.32
- QQQ: $701.33 | 50 SMA $633.58 | 200 SMA $611.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $702.45
- IWM: $274.57 | 50 SMA $264.34 | 200 SMA $251.33 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $251.44
- VIX: 17.90 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.627%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $736.37 ▲ | 73.15 | 33.8 | $738.32 | Neutral | 0.88 |
| QQQ | $701.33 ▲ | 76.14 | 60.0 | $702.45 | Neutral | 1.05 |
| IWM | $274.57 ▼ | 52.57 | 39.1 | $251.44 | Bearish | 2.99 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.90 ▼ | 49.95 | 18.8 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.92 |
| TNX | 46.27 ▲ | 71.52 | 50.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $416.30 ▼ | 47.01 | 26.5 | $417.18 | Neutral | 0.85 |
| DXY | 99.23 ▲ | 53.59 ▲ | 36.9 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.74 ▼ | 55.87 | 29.7 | $48.44 | Neutral | 0.92 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.407
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.73B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.54% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 56.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 18/19 |
| Real Estate | 89.3% | 25/28 |
| Technology | 72.3% | 47/65 |
| Financials | 69.1% | 47/68 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Industrials | 49.3% | 33/67 |
| Consumer Staples | 47.1% | 16/34 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 8/24 |
| Health Care | 31.5% | 17/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 27.1% | 16/59 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 3/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $103.40 ▼ (5d: +2.4% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $110.33 ▼ | Spread: $6.93 ▼
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.5600/gal ▼
- Heating Oil: $3.9500/gal ▼
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $51.58/bbl ▼ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $60.58
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.54
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.518 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.589 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | 0.401 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.681 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 86.07
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 ▼ (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.00 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $104.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $736.37)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.7% (as of 2026-05-13)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.63% ▲
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.05 ▲ (Normal)
- DXY: 99.23 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.95 ▲
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.69% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.48%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 42/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $7.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,883B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,201B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,172B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,255B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,871 ▲ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.10% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.407) despite calm surface (VIX 18.0, breadth 51%).
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $103.60 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.701 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $103.60 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.69% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $52.08/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $149.29 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.05%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 42.25 | Prev: 33.00
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: ⏳ Pending
- Pending Home Sales(MoM)(Apr): ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑4.0% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (↑1.5% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (20):
[1] United States Redbook Index (YoY) dipped from previous 9.6% to 8.1% in May 15 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-redbook-index-yoy-dipped-from-previous-96-to-81-in-may-15-202605191255 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:55:04 Z
[2] British Pound: Fiscal relief supports recovery versus US Dollar - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-fiscal-relief-supports-recovery-versus-us-dollar-mufg-202605191252 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:52:06 Z
[3] US Dollar Index: Upside risks build on Iran headlines - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-upside-risks-build-on-iran-headlines-ing-202605191237 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:37:47 Z
[4] Breaking: Canada headline CPI came in at 2.8% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-cpi-expected-to-show-rising-inflation-in-april-pressuring-boc-rate-outlook-202605190800 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:35:15 Z
[5] Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) remains at -2.3% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-new-housing-price-index-yoy-remains-at-23-in-april-202605191233 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:33:59 Z
[6] Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.1% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-consumer-price-index-core-mom-rose-from-previous-0-to-01-in-april-202605191230 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:30:47 Z
[7] Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0%) in April: Actual (-0.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-new-housing-price-index-mom-below-expectations-0-in-april-actual-04-202605191230 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:30:09 Z
[8] Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.8%, below expectations (3.1%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-consumer-price-index-yoy-registered-at-28-below-expectations-31-in-april-202605191230 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:30:07 Z
[9] Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) unchanged at 0.2% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-boc-consumer-price-index-core-mom-unchanged-at-02-in-april-202605191230 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:30:07 Z
[10] Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.6%) in April: Actual (0.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-consumer-price-index-mom-below-expectations-06-in-april-actual-04-202605191230 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:30:07 Z
[11] Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) declined to 2.1% in April from previous 2.5% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-boc-consumer-price-index-core-yoy-declined-to-21-in-april-from-previous-25-202605191230 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:30:06 Z
[12] Canada Building Permits (MoM) came in at 10.3%, above expectations (4%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-building-permits-mom-came-in-at-103-above-expectations-4-in-march-202605191230 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:30:06 Z
[13] ADP Employment Change 4-week average increases to 42.25K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/adp-employment-change-4-week-average-increases-to-4225k-202605191225 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:25:10 Z
[14] Brent: Backwardation cushions risk assets - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-backwardation-cushions-risk-assets-deutsche-bank-202605191224 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:24:26 Z
[15] Silver retreats as firm US Dollar, higher yields weigh on precious metals URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-retreats-as-firm-us-dollar-higher-yields-weigh-on-precious-metals-202605191223 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:23:57 Z
[16] United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average up to 42.25K in April 25 from previous 33K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-adp-employment-change-4-week-average-up-to-4225k-in-april-25-from-previous-33k-202605191215 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:15:10 Z
[17] United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average climbed from previous 33K to 42.25K in April 25 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-adp-employment-change-4-week-average-climbed-from-previous-33k-to-4225k-in-april-25-202605191215 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:15:10 Z
[18] Palladium: Supply gap remains intact - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/palladium-supply-gap-remains-intact-commerzbank-202605191214 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:14:42 Z
[19] Australian Dollar test monthly lows amid risk-off markets, high Oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-test-monthly-lows-amid-risk-off-markets-high-oil-prices-202605191212 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:12:22 Z
[20] Australian Dollar: Oil keeps RBA cautious - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-oil-keeps-rba-cautious-bny-202605191205 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 12:05:17 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled