Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-19 06:00:17 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 50% (3 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.407 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +5.7B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.80% moderate, NFCI -0.524 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 51% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +5.2% growth optimism · real yield 2.10% restrictive |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.70 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 138 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.12 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 42 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.8% stable, MOVE 86 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 62/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $103, watch for margin compression); DIX falling to 0.407 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.8 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.12)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $738.89 | 50 SMA $691.37 | 200 SMA $676.61 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $738.99
- QQQ: $706.57 | 50 SMA $633.58 | 200 SMA $611.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $705.55
- IWM: $276.18 | 50 SMA $264.34 | 200 SMA $251.33 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $251.0
- VIX: 17.82 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.623%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $738.89 | 73.15 | 33.8 | $738.99 | Bearish | 1.67 |
| QQQ | $706.57 | 76.14 | 60.0 | $705.55 | Bearish | 2.25 |
| IWM | $276.18 | 52.57 | 39.1 | $251.00 | Bearish | 8.71 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.82 | 49.95 | 18.8 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.45 |
| TNX | 46.23 | 71.52 | 50.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $420.73 | 47.01 | 26.5 | $417.02 | Neutral | 0.94 |
| DXY | 99.15 | 52.72 | 36.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $71.18 | 55.87 | 29.7 | $48.71 | Neutral | 0.97 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.407
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.73B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.54% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 56.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 18/19 |
| Real Estate | 89.3% | 25/28 |
| Technology | 72.3% | 47/65 |
| Financials | 69.1% | 47/68 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Industrials | 49.3% | 33/67 |
| Consumer Staples | 47.1% | 16/34 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 8/24 |
| Health Care | 31.5% | 17/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 27.1% | 16/59 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 3/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $103.18 (5d: +2.1%)
- Brent Crude: $110.29 | Spread: $7.11
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.5800/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $52.78/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $60.58
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.54
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.52 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.572 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | 0.402 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.701 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 86.07
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 707,395.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 705,799.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.00 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $104.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $738.89)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.7% (as of 2026-05-13)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.62%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.05 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.15
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.69% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.48%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 42/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $7.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,883B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,201B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,172B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,255B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,733 ▼ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.10% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.407) despite calm surface (VIX 17.8, breadth 51%).
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $103.18 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.701 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $103.18 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.69% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $52.78/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $149.29 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.05%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Pending Home Sales(MoM)(Apr): ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑4.0% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (↑1.5% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (23):
[1] Canadian Dollar: CPI strength seen above BoC track - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-cpi-strength-seen-above-boc-track-td-securities-202605190959 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 09:59:21 Z
[2] Japanese Yen: Fiscal risks support renewed Takaichi trades - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-fiscal-risks-support-renewed-takaichi-trades-dbs-202605190950 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 09:50:17 Z
[3] Copper: Losses extend on macro headwinds - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-losses-extend-on-macro-headwinds-ing-202605190938 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 09:38:32 Z
[4] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202605190930 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 09:30:33 Z
[5] Canadian Dollar: Rebound against US Dollar nears 200-DMA - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-rebound-against-us-dollar-nears-200-dma-societe-generale-202605190927 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 09:27:34 Z
[6] US Dollar Index: Rally pause as data focus shifts - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-rally-pause-as-data-focus-shifts-ocbc-202605190912 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 09:12:06 Z
[7] British Pound underperforms against a broadly weaker JPY amid UK political crisis URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-underperforms-against-a-broadly-weaker-jpy-amid-uk-political-crisis-202605190907 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 09:07:49 Z
[8] RBNZ: Gradual hiking path from September - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbnz-gradual-hiking-path-from-september-td-securities-202605190906 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 09:06:44 Z
[9] WTI Price Forecast: Approaches over two-month high above $107 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-approaches-over-two-month-high-above-107-202605190904 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 09:04:00 Z
[10] Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. dipped from previous €7B to €3.5B in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-trade-balance-sa-dipped-from-previous-eu7b-to-eu35b-in-march-202605190901 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 09:01:03 Z
[11] Euro weakens as Canadian Dollar receives support from higher oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-weakens-as-canadian-dollar-receives-support-from-higher-oil-prices-202605190900 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 09:00:43 Z
[12] Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. came in at €7.8B, above expectations (€5.4B) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-trade-balance-nsa-came-in-at-eu78b-above-expectations-eu54b-in-march-202605190900 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 09:00:10 Z
[13] Canada CPI Preview: Inflation expected to tick higher in April ahead of BoC meeting URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-cpi-expected-to-show-rising-inflation-in-april-pressuring-boc-rate-outlook-202605190800 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 09:00:00 Z
[14] Polish Zloty: Limited downside risk - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-limited-downside-risk-commerzbank-202605190849 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 08:49:59 Z
[15] BoE: Softer labour market data shape rate path - Nomura URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boe-softer-labour-market-data-shape-rate-path-nomura-202605190844 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 08:44:08 Z
[16] Gold seems vulnerable near daily low as Fed hike bets and geopolitical risks lift USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-weakens-as-stalled-us-iran-talks-and-fed-hike-bets-bolster-us-dollar-202605190417 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 08:35:16 Z
[17] Dow Jones futures maintain position as Trump calls off Iran attack URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-maintain-position-as-trump-calls-off-iran-attack-202605190834 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 08:34:27 Z
[18] Euro gives away gains amid geopolitical uncertainty, rising Oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-gives-away-gains-amid-geopolitical-uncertainty-rising-oil-prices-202605190834 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 08:34:06 Z
[19] Japanese Yen: Strong GDP fails to lift versus US Dollar - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-strong-gdp-fails-to-lift-versus-us-dollar-deutsche-bank-202605190830 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 08:30:54 Z
[20] Australian Dollar: China slowdown and RBA pause pressure Aussie - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-china-slowdown-and-rba-pause-pressure-aussie-mufg-202605190821 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 08:21:28 Z
[21] Euro: Retest of 1.1600 against US Dollar seen likely - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-retest-of-11600-against-us-dollar-seen-likely-ing-202605190809 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 08:09:07 Z
[22] Indian Rupee faces pressure amid higher oil prices, FIIs turn out net buyers URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-continues-to-underperform-amid-elevates-oil-prices-202605190546 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 08:08:40 Z
[23] Japanese Yen slides further below 159.00, nearly three-week low vs USD on Mideast tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-slides-further-below-15900-nearly-three-week-low-vs-usd-on-mideast-tensions-202605190808 Published: Tue, 19 May 2026 08:08:08 Z
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Retired IRGC member killed while defusing war ordnance - IRGC media Time: 2026-05-19T09:31:53.302Z
[2] Iran authorities say 19 alleged militants arrested in southeast Time: 2026-05-19T08:57:36.567Z
[3] China, Pakistan helped mediate US-Iran talks, Iran envoy says Time: 2026-05-19T08:41:41.785Z
[4] Iran blackout reaches 81st day as NetBlocks warns of wider controls Time: 2026-05-19T08:20:49.620Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled