Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-18 18:01:10 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 60% (3 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.459 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +18.2B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.80% moderate, NFCI -0.524 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 51% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +8.4% growth optimism · real yield 2.00% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.71 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 138 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.12 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 42 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +1.0% stable, MOVE 86 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 68/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $102, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.459; GEX positive at 18.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.8 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.18)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $738.70 | 50 SMA $690.04 | 200 SMA $676.07 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $738.99
- QQQ: $706.45 | 50 SMA $631.46 | 200 SMA $610.95 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $705.55
- IWM: $276.08 | 50 SMA $263.83 | 200 SMA $251.05 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $252.0
- VIX: 17.82 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.623%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $738.70 ▲ | 69.61 | 37.4 | $738.99 | Bearish | 1.67 |
| QQQ | $706.45 ▲ | 73.26 | 59.9 | $705.55 | Bearish | 2.26 |
| IWM | $276.08 ▲ | 50.55 | 49.0 | $252.00 | Bearish | 8.67 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.82 | 52.20 | 18.5 | $11.08 | Neutral | 1.35 |
| TNX | 46.23 | 71.06 | 61.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $419.58 ▲ | 40.30 | 27.8 | $417.02 | Neutral | 0.95 |
| DXY | 98.97 ▼ | 53.97 ▼ | 36.3 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $70.29 ▲ | 51.07 | 30.4 | $48.55 | Neutral | 0.98 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.459
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 18.16B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.54% ▲ (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 56.3%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 18/19 |
| Real Estate | 89.3% | 25/28 |
| Technology | 72.3% | 47/65 |
| Financials | 69.1% | 47/68 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Industrials | 49.3% | 33/67 |
| Consumer Staples | 47.1% | 16/34 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 8/24 |
| Health Care | 31.5% | 17/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 27.1% | 16/59 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 3/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $102.49 ▲ (5d: +0.3% ▲)
- Brent Crude: $109.28 ▲ | Spread: $6.79 ▲
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.5500/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9400/gal ▲
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $52.07/bbl ▼ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $60.58
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.54
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.643 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.684 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.33 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.707 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 86.07
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,014,764.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,607,535.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.90 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $563.0B
- Gamma Call Wall: $742 | Put Wall: $738 (Spot: $738.70)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.7% (as of 2026-05-13)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.62%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.05 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.97 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.96 ▲
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.70% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.49%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 42/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $7.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,883B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,199B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,179B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,261B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,096 ▲ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.459, GEX +18.2B, HY OAS 2.80%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $102.25 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.707 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $102.25 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.70% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $52.17/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $149.29 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.05%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- TIC Net Long-Term Transactions(Mar): 81.3 vs Est. 87.2 (MISS) | Prev: 57.0
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑4.0% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (↑1.5% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (2):
[1] NZD/USD gains as weaker US Dollar offsets cautious US-Iran headlines URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-gains-as-weaker-us-dollar-offsets-cautious-us-iran-headlines-202605182131 Published: Mon, 18 May 2026 21:31:29 Z
[2] Singapore Dollar: Resistance caps USD gains - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-dollar-resistance-caps-usd-gains-uob-202605182114 Published: Mon, 18 May 2026 21:14:00 Z
Iran War News
Updates (9):
[1] Senator Graham sets conditions for Iran deal, urges congressional approval Time: 2026-05-18T21:52:12.315Z
[2] Trump says Iran talks ongoing as he repeats threat of military action Time: 2026-05-18T21:50:39.768Z
[3] Iran's military 'virtually destroyed' in US actions, Trump says Time: 2026-05-18T21:47:30.803Z
[4] Countries urged delay of planned 'very major attack' as Iran, Trump says Time: 2026-05-18T21:40:25.914Z
[5] Senate Republicans praise Trump pressure campaign on Iran Time: 2026-05-18T21:16:08.362Z
[6] Air defenses activated in Isfahan - report Time: 2026-05-18T21:10:07.166Z
[7] Iran military commander warns US against 'strategic miscalculation' Time: 2026-05-18T21:03:11.655Z
[8] Video: Pro-regime newlyweds turn armed vehicles into wedding cars in Iran Time: 2026-05-18T20:58:25.558Z
[9] Hardline influencer warns against possible US strike on Iran Time: 2026-05-18T20:54:23.471Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled