Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-18 10:25:16 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 60% (3 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.459 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +18.2B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.80% moderate, NFCI -0.524 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 46% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +7.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.00% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.71 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 18.3 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 146 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.02 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 42 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.9% stable, MOVE 80 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS — breadth at 46% and energy regime SHOCK keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $101, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.459; GEX positive at 18.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.3 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.2)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $740.07 | 50 SMA $690.04 | 200 SMA $676.07 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $739.63
- QQQ: $708.54 | 50 SMA $631.46 | 200 SMA $610.95 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $708.87
- IWM: $277.34 | 50 SMA $263.83 | 200 SMA $251.05 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $279.97
- VIX: 18.34 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.593%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $740.07 ▼ | 69.61 | 37.4 | $739.63 | Neutral | 1.00 |
| QQQ | $708.54 ▼ | 73.26 | 59.9 | $708.87 | Neutral | 1.38 |
| IWM | $277.34 ▼ | 50.55 | 49.0 | $279.97 | Bearish | 3.49 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.34 ▲ | 52.20 | 18.5 | $10.57 | Bearish | 1.55 |
| TNX | 45.93 ▲ | 71.06 | 61.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $418.47 ▼ | 40.30 | 27.8 | $416.78 | Neutral | 0.96 |
| DXY | 99.10 ▼ | 55.59 ▼ | 34.9 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $69.67 ▼ | 51.07 | 30.4 | $49.00 | Neutral | 0.99 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.459
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 18.16B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 45.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 52.6%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 493
- Mag 7 Concentration: 33.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 84.2% | 16/19 |
| Real Estate | 74.1% | 20/27 |
| Technology | 66.2% | 43/65 |
| Financials | 53.7% | 36/67 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Industrials | 48.5% | 32/66 |
| Consumer Staples | 44.1% | 15/34 |
| Materials | 31.8% | 7/22 |
| Health Care | 31.5% | 17/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 20.7% | 12/58 |
| Utilities | 6.7% | 2/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $100.90 ▲ (5d: -1.2% ▲)
- Brent Crude: $109.01 ▲ | Spread: $8.11 ▼
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.5600/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.36/bbl ▼ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.62 ▲
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.49 ▲
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.662 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.712 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.324 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.707 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 79.87
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 ▼ (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 950,275.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 797,714.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.84 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $129.3B ▲
- Gamma Call Wall: $742 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $740.07)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.7% (as of 2026-05-13)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.59% ▲
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 ▲ (Normal)
- DXY: 99.10 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.96 ▼
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.70% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.49%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 42/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.6B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,889B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,199B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,179B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,267B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,661 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $100.69 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.707 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $100.69 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.70% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $54.57/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $147.36 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.06%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production(MoM)(Apr): 0.7% vs Est. 0.3% (BEAT) | Prev: -0.3%
- Industrial Production(YoY)(Apr): 1.35% | Prev: 0.76%
- NY Empire State Manufacturing Index(May): 19.60 vs Est. 7.30 (BEAT) | Prev: 11.00
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑4.0% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (↑1.5% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled