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2026-W20

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-15 11:00:39 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE — Moderate divergence — several structural signals disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool 🟢 BULLISH ✗ DIVERGENT DIX 0.456 above 0.45 and rising — institutions accumulating
Gamma 🟢 BULLISH ✗ DIVERGENT GEX +9.1B strong suppression
Credit 🟢 BULLISH ✗ DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.76% benign, NFCI -0.524 loose
Breadth ⚪ NEUTRAL — Breadth 47% — mixed participation
Energy 🔴 BEARISH ✓ ALIGNED Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk
growth_expectations ⚪ NEUTRAL — Copper/Gold +10.8% growth optimism · real yield 1.99% firm
Correlations 🔴 BEARISH ✓ ALIGNED SPY/Oil -0.71 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing
Volatility ⚪ NEUTRAL — VIX 18.3 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 139 normal · VVIX/VIX 4.98 above-trend
Inflation ⚪ NEUTRAL — Stagflation score 42 — moderate, watching
carry_risk 🟢 BULLISH ✗ DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +1.1% yen weakening, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity ⚪ NEUTRAL — Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: Cautious regime with SPY slipping, but dark pool, gamma, and credit flash bullish — 4 of 6 signals refuse to confirm the decline. Watch for: breadth falling below 40% (bearish resolution).

Market Status

Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 66/100 (Mixed) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $100, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.456; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.3 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.

  • Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.24)

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $741.22 | 50 SMA $688.88 | 200 SMA $675.55 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $741.89
  • QQQ: $710.48 | 50 SMA $629.46 | 200 SMA $610.25 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $711.63
  • IWM: $278.14 | 50 SMA $263.42 | 200 SMA $250.77 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $273.39
  • VIX: 18.32 — sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.572%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL γ-Sent PCR
SPY $741.22 82.03 28.1 $741.89 Neutral 1.50
QQQ $710.48 82.67 50.2 $711.63 Neutral 1.43
IWM $278.14 61.04 30.6 $273.39 Bearish 1.87

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL γ-Sent PCR
VIX 18.32 41.79 15.4 $10.62 Neutral 1.20
TNX 45.72 64.89 34.9 - - -
GLD $418.86 44.83 25.1 $428.50 Neutral 1.31
DXY 99.25 59.17 34.2 - - -
SLV $69.54 62.42 24.0 $49.00 Neutral 0.81

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.456
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.07B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.76% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.95%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 47.4%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.0%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 485
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.9%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 43.7%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Real Estate 77.8% 21/27
Energy 68.4% 13/19
Technology 63.1% 41/65
Financials 57.6% 38/66
Communication Services 50.0% 10/20
Materials 50.0% 12/24
Industrials 46.9% 30/64
Consumer Staples 44.1% 15/34
Health Care 32.7% 17/52
Consumer Discretionary 26.8% 15/56
Utilities 20.0% 6/30

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: SHOCK
  • WTI Crude: $100.37 (5d: +2.4%)
  • Brent Crude: $109.18 | Spread: $8.81
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.5400/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.0700/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $55.73/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $59.06
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $11.32

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.618 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.739 stretched
SPY / TNX 0.347 normal
SPY / Oil -0.713 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.63
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 1,473,713.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 1,316,005.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.89 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $206.8B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $730 | Put Wall: $738 (Spot: $741.22)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.7% (as of 2026-05-13)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.57%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.98 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.25
  • Growth vs Value: 0.96
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.70% (Above Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 42/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.0B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,888B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,198B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,183B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $17,269B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,138 ▼ (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $100.37 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.716 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
  • [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $100.37 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
  • [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.70% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $55.73/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $146.65 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] SPY (741.15) dropped below ZGL (741.89) — expect amplified downside moves.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: May
  • Average Return: +1.06%
  • Median Return: +1.61%
  • Hit Rate: 80%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Industrial Production(MoM)(Apr): 0.7% vs Est. 0.3% (BEAT) | Prev: -0.3%
  • Industrial Production(YoY)(Apr): 1.35% | Prev: 0.76%
  • NY Empire State Manufacturing Index(May): 19.60 vs Est. 7.30 (BEAT) | Prev: 11.00

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑4.1% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (↑1.5% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled