Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-15 09:01:29 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (1 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.454 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | GEX +8.6B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.82% moderate, NFCI -0.524 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 47% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +8.6% growth optimism · real yield 1.99% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | SPY/Oil -0.61 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 19.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 139 normal · VVIX/VIX 4.90 above-trend |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 42 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +1.1% yen weakening, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Cautious regime but gamma, credit, and carry are turning bullish — if correlations confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 73/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 73 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS — breadth at 47% keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.454; GEX positive at 8.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.23)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $739.30 | 50 SMA $688.88 | 200 SMA $675.55 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $744.72
- QQQ: $707.36 | 50 SMA $629.46 | 200 SMA $610.25 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $711.74
- IWM: $279.86 | 50 SMA $263.42 | 200 SMA $250.77 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $273.38
- VIX: 19.15 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.566%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $739.30 ▼ | 82.03 | 28.1 | $744.72 | Neutral | 0.69 |
| QQQ | $707.36 ▼ | 82.67 | 50.2 | $711.74 | Neutral | 0.97 |
| IWM | $279.86 ▲ | 61.04 | 30.6 | $273.38 | Neutral | 0.61 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.15 | 41.79 | 15.4 | $10.58 | Neutral | 1.38 |
| TNX | 45.66 ▲ | 64.89 | 34.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $417.07 ▼ | 44.83 | 25.1 | $419.66 | Neutral | 0.93 |
| DXY | 99.25 ▲ | 59.15 ▲ | 34.1 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $69.69 ▼ | 62.42 | 24.0 | $70.34 | Neutral | 0.57 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.6B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.82% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 47.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.4%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 33.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 82.1% | 23/28 |
| Technology | 64.6% | 42/65 |
| Energy | 57.9% | 11/19 |
| Financials | 54.4% | 37/68 |
| Industrials | 50.7% | 34/67 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 11/24 |
| Consumer Staples | 42.4% | 14/33 |
| Health Care | 33.3% | 18/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 25.4% | 15/59 |
| Utilities | 23.3% | 7/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $99.96 ▲ (5d: +1.9% ▲)
- Brent Crude: $108.32 ▲ | Spread: $8.36 ▼
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.5200/gal ▲
- Heating Oil: $4.0200/gal ▲
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.88/bbl ▲ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.07
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.16
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.675 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.719 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.336 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.608 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.63
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.73 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $556.0B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $744 (Spot: $739.30)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.7% (as of 2026-05-13)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.57% ▲
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.97 ▲ (Normal)
- DXY: 99.25 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.96 ▼
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.70% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 42/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,888B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,198B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,183B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,286B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $80,318 ▼ (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.723 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $99.66 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.70% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $54.20/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $143.0 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (739.39) dropped below ZGL (744.72) — expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to CAUTIOUS.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.440 — institutional buying support fading.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.12%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production(MoM)(Apr): ⏳ Pending
- NY Empire State Manufacturing Index(May): 19.60 vs Est. 7.30 (BEAT) | Prev: 11.00
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.6% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑4.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑1.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (12):
[1] KOSPI hit record 8,046 then crashed 8.4%, wiping ₩509 Trillion
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/kospi-hit-record-8-046-then-crashed-84-wiping-w509-trillion-202605151232
Published: Fri, 15 May 2026 12:32:24 Z
[2] India: Fuel price hike and inflation dynamics - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-fuel-price-hike-and-inflation-dynamics-dbs-202605151231 Published: Fri, 15 May 2026 12:31:40 Z
[3] Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities came in at $4.62B, below expectations ($11.4B) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-foreign-portfolio-investment-in-canadian-securities-came-in-at-462b-below-expectations-114b-in-march-202605151230 Published: Fri, 15 May 2026 12:30:04 Z
[4] Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities declined to $3.9B in March from previous $25.36B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-canadian-portfolio-investment-in-foreign-securities-declined-to-39b-in-march-from-previous-2536b-202605151230 Published: Fri, 15 May 2026 12:30:03 Z
[5] United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index registered at 19.6 above expectations (7.5) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ny-empire-state-manufacturing-index-registered-at-196-above-expectations-75-in-may-202605151230 Published: Fri, 15 May 2026 12:30:01 Z
[6] Fed: Expected to keep rates in 2026 - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-expected-to-keep-rates-in-2026-td-securities-202605151216 Published: Fri, 15 May 2026 12:16:10 Z
[7] Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) came in at 279.3K, above expectations (240K) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-housing-starts-sa-yoy-came-in-at-2793k-above-expectations-240k-in-april-202605151215 Published: Fri, 15 May 2026 12:15:01 Z
[8] EUR/USD Price forecast: Hits lows at 1.1620 on risk aversion, high Oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-hits-lows-at-11620-on-risk-aversion-high-oil-prices-202605151207 Published: Fri, 15 May 2026 12:07:49 Z
[9] Gold tumbles nearly 2% as stronger US Dollar, rising yields weigh on bullion URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-tumbles-nearly-2-as-stronger-us-dollar-rising-yields-weigh-on-bullion-202605151206 Published: Fri, 15 May 2026 12:06:38 Z
[10] US Dollar: Supported by higher yields and data - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-supported-by-higher-yields-and-data-deutsche-bank-202605151157 Published: Fri, 15 May 2026 11:57:12 Z
[11] Canadian Dollar hits fresh monthly lows as the US Dollar rallies in risk-off markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-hits-fresh-monthly-lows-as-the-us-dollar-rallies-in-risk-off-markets-202605151148 Published: Fri, 15 May 2026 11:48:56 Z
[12] Copper: Tariff risk fuels rally - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-tariff-risk-fuels-rally-commerzbank-202605151143 Published: Fri, 15 May 2026 11:43:47 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled