Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-14 08:31:14 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (3 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.440 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.5B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.82% moderate, NFCI -0.524 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 46% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +11.0% growth optimism · real yield 1.95% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.74 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 142 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.51 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 39 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and carry) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 72/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 72 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — breadth at 46% and DIX below threshold (0.440) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.440; GEX positive at 7.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.9 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.24)
What Changed
- Health score ↑ 6 points (67 → 72)
Key Levels
- SPY: $745.14 | 50 SMA $687.62 | 200 SMA $674.98 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $737.39
- QQQ: $716.66 | 50 SMA $627.28 | 200 SMA $609.48 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $708.02
- IWM: $283.90 | 50 SMA $262.96 | 200 SMA $250.46 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $266.98
- VIX: 17.89 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.445%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $745.14 ▲ | 81.91 ▲ | 28.1 ▼ | $737.39 | Neutral | 0.76 |
| QQQ | $716.66 ▲ | 84.05 ▲ | 51.7 ▼ | $708.02 | Neutral | 0.80 |
| IWM | $283.90 ▲ | 60.31 ▲ | 30.1 ▼ | $266.98 | Neutral | 0.90 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.89 ▲ | 41.84 ▼ | 14.7 ▼ | $11.01 | Neutral | 1.26 |
| TNX | 44.45 ▼ | 65.80 ▼ | 33.7 ▼ | - | - | - |
| GLD | $431.55 ▲ | 49.53 ▲ | 25.3 ▼ | $425.99 | Neutral | 0.72 |
| DXY | 98.54 ▲ | 50.44 ▲ | 29.5 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $78.28 ▼ | 73.21 ▲ | 21.6 ▼ | $70.48 | Bearish | 0.39 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.44
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.54B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.82% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 45.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 54.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 33.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 24/28 |
| Technology | 63.1% | 41/65 |
| Energy | 57.9% | 11/19 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 13/24 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Industrials | 49.3% | 33/67 |
| Financials | 47.1% | 32/68 |
| Consumer Staples | 44.1% | 15/34 |
| Health Care | 29.6% | 16/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 20.3% | 12/59 |
| Utilities | 20.0% | 6/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED ◆
- WTI Crude: $99.63 ▼ (5d: +4.4% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $104.02 ▼ | Spread: $4.39 ▼
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3900/gal ▼
- Heating Oil: $3.8800/gal ▼
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.61/bbl ▼ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.63
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.98
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.534 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.823 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | 0.386 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.738 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.24
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0 ▼
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0 ▼
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (No 0DTE Flow Yet ◆)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $493.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $745.14)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.7% (as of 2026-05-13)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.45% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.85 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.54 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.96 ▼
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.69% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.25%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 39/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6709.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $877.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $3.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,828B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,245B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,200B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,273B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,393 ▲ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.00 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.738 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.00 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.69% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $51.32/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $142.04 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.08%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Core Retail Sales(MoM)(Apr): 0.7% vs Est. 0.7% (INLINE) | Prev: 1.9%
- Initial Jobless Claims: 211 vs Est. 205 (BEAT) | Prev: 199
- Retail Sales(MoM)(Apr): 0.5% vs Est. 0.5% (INLINE) | Prev: 1.6%
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): ⏳ Pending
- Business Inventories(MoM)(Mar): ⏳ Pending
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,782 vs Est. 1,790 (MISS) | Prev: 1,758
- Export Price Index(MoM)(Apr): 3.3% vs Est. 1.1% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.5%
- Import Price Index(MoM)(Apr): 1.9% vs Est. 1.0% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.9%
- Retail Control(MoM)(Apr): 0.5% vs Est. 0.4% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.8%
- Retail Inventories Ex Auto(Mar): ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.6% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑4.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑1.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled