Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-14 04:00:23 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 60% (3 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.440 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.5B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.82% moderate, NFCI -0.524 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 46% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +11.6% growth optimism · real yield 1.95% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.74 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 142 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.50 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 39 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.8% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 67/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $101, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.440; GEX positive at 7.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.9 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.24)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $742.88 | 50 SMA $686.38 | 200 SMA $674.46 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.8
- QQQ: $715.95 | 50 SMA $625.01 | 200 SMA $608.75 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $690.99
- IWM: $282.59 | 50 SMA $262.49 | 200 SMA $250.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $266.99
- VIX: 17.87 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.481%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $742.88 | 76.09 | 31.2 | $730.80 | Bearish | 0.33 |
| QQQ | $715.95 | 79.23 | 54.5 | $690.99 | Bearish | 0.36 |
| IWM | $282.59 | 58.57 | 33.4 | $266.99 | Neutral | 0.51 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.87 | 44.88 | 15.8 | $11.01 | Neutral | 1.28 |
| TNX | 44.81 | 66.54 | 39.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $430.69 | 48.03 | 28.2 | $422.80 | Neutral | 0.82 |
| DXY | 98.48 | 45.66 | 29.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $79.33 | 66.48 | 23.6 | $70.45 | Bearish | 0.30 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.44
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.54B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.82% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 45.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 54.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 33.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 24/28 |
| Technology | 63.1% | 41/65 |
| Energy | 57.9% | 11/19 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 13/24 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Industrials | 49.3% | 33/67 |
| Financials | 47.1% | 32/68 |
| Consumer Staples | 44.1% | 15/34 |
| Health Care | 29.6% | 16/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 20.3% | 12/59 |
| Utilities | 20.0% | 6/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $101.00 (5d: +6.5%)
- Brent Crude: $105.55 | Spread: $4.55
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.4600/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $51.32/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.63
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.98
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.534 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.823 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | 0.386 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.738 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.24
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,037,571.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,616,102.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $493.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $725 (Spot: $742.88)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +5.3% (as of 2026-05-06)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.48%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.88 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.48
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.69% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.25%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 39/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6709.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $877.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $3.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,828B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,245B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,275B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,720 ▼ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.00 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.738 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.00 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.69% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $51.32/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $142.04 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.08%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- 30-Year Bond Auction: 5.050% | Prev: 4.876%
- Crude Oil Inventories: -4.306 vs Est. -2.000 (MISS) | Prev: -2.313
- PPI(MoM)(Apr): 1.4% vs Est. 0.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.7%
- Core PPI(MoM)(Apr): 1.0% vs Est. 0.3% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.2%
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -1.702 | Prev: -0.648
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.6% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑4.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑1.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (30):
[1] Forex Today: Markets stabilize ahead of mid-tier US data, await news from Trump-Xi summit URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-markets-stabilize-ahead-of-mid-tier-us-data-await-news-from-trump-xi-summit-202605140732 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 07:32:20 Z
[2] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Hovers around 0.7250 near nine-day EMA support URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-hovers-around-07250-near-nine-day-ema-support-202605140729 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 07:29:00 Z
[3] Equities: Tech strength offsets inflation risks - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-tech-strength-offsets-inflation-risks-deutsche-bank-202605140727 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 07:27:36 Z
[4] Copper: Tight market near record highs - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-tight-market-near-record-highs-ing-202605140701 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 07:01:57 Z
[5] Indian Rupee remains under pressure amid consistent foreign outflows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-trades-with-caution-ahead-of-trump-xi-meeting-outcome-202605140517 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:55:37 Z
[6] British Pound holds above 1.3500, as UK GDP, manufacturing data beat expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-holds-above-13500-as-uk-gdp-manufacturing-data-beat-expectations-202605140654 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:54:02 Z
[7] Japanese Yen: Weakens as Dollar rally extends - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-weakens-as-dollar-rally-extends-mufg-202605140650 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:50:56 Z
[8] Indian Rupee: Precious metal tariffs doubled to support INR - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-precious-metal-tariffs-doubled-to-support-inr-commerzbank-202605140640 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:40:41 Z
[9] Swiss Franc flattens as investors await Trump's comments on meeting with China's Xi URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-flattens-as-investors-await-trumps-comments-on-meeting-with-chinas-xi-202605140636 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:36:06 Z
[10] India WPI Inflation above forecasts (4.4%) in April: Actual (8.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-wpi-inflation-above-forecasts-44-in-april-actual-83-202605140630 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:30:46 Z
[11] UK Preliminary GDP grows by 0.6% QoQ in Q1 2026, as expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uk-gdp-growth-leap-in-q1-may-mask-potential-slowdown-due-to-iran-war-202605140200 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:30:04 Z
[12] Gold drifts higher as traders await Trump-Xi summit outcome URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-edges-higher-to-near-4-700-as-trump-xi-summit-looms-202605132314 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:27:16 Z
[13] Euro: Downside bias versus US Dollar toward support - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-downside-bias-versus-us-dollar-toward-support-uob-202605140622 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:22:19 Z
[14] Kazaks: ECB could hike if Oil surge deteriorates inflation expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/kazaks-ecb-could-hike-if-oil-surge-deteriorates-inflation-expectations-202605140611 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:11:14 Z
[15] United Kingdom Total Trade Balance fell from previous £-0.72B to £-9.658B in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-total-trade-balance-fell-from-previous-ps-072b-to-ps-9658b-in-march-202605140606 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:06:52 Z
[16] United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above expectations (0.8%) in 1Q: Actual (1.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-gross-domestic-product-yoy-above-expectations-08-in-1q-actual-11-202605140604 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:04:51 Z
[17] United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets expectations (0.6%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-gross-domestic-product-qoq-meets-expectations-06-in-1q-202605140604 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:04:40 Z
[18] United Kingdom Index of Services (3M/3M) registered at 0.8% above expectations (0.6%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-index-of-services-3m-3m-registered-at-08-above-expectations-06-in-march-202605140602 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:02:23 Z
[19] United Kingdom Trade Balance; non-EU dipped from previous £-7.097B to £-15.195B in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-trade-balance-non-eu-dipped-from-previous-ps-7097b-to-ps-15195b-in-march-202605140601 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:01:37 Z
[20] United Kingdom Total Business Investment (YoY) down to -1.8% in 1Q from previous 2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-total-business-investment-yoy-down-to-18-in-1q-from-previous-2-202605140600 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:00:48 Z
[21] United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) above forecasts (0%) in March: Actual (1.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-manufacturing-production-yoy-above-forecasts-0-in-march-actual-12-202605140600 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:00:16 Z
[22] United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) came in at 0%, below expectations (0.2%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-industrial-production-yoy-came-in-at-0-below-expectations-02-in-march-202605140600 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:00:13 Z
[23] United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) came in at -0.2%, above forecasts (-0.3%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-industrial-production-mom-came-in-at-02-above-forecasts-03-in-march-202605140600 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:00:08 Z
[24] United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance below expectations (£-20B) in March: Actual (£-27.22B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-goods-trade-balance-below-expectations-ps-20b-in-march-actual-ps-2722b-202605140600 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:00:07 Z
[25] United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (YoY) registered at 1% above expectations (0.8%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-gross-domestic-product-yoy-registered-at-1-above-expectations-08-in-1q-202605140600 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:00:05 Z
[26] United Kingdom Total Business Investment (QoQ) registered at 0.7%, below expectations (1.1%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-total-business-investment-qoq-registered-at-07-below-expectations-11-in-1q-202605140600 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:00:04 Z
[27] United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) came in at 1.2%, above forecasts (-0.2%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-manufacturing-production-mom-came-in-at-12-above-forecasts-02-in-march-202605140600 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:00:04 Z
[28] United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 0.1%, below expectations (0.6%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-gross-domestic-product-qoq-registered-at-01-below-expectations-06-in-1q-202605140600 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:00:04 Z
[29] United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (MoM) came in at 0.3%, above expectations (-0.2%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-gross-domestic-product-mom-came-in-at-03-above-expectations-02-in-march-202605140600 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 06:00:02 Z
[30] AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gathers strength as Trump meets Xi in Beijing, bullish bias prevails URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-price-forecast-gathers-strength-as-trump-meets-xi-in-beijing-bullish-bias-prevails-202605140555 Published: Thu, 14 May 2026 05:55:15 Z
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] Hormuz open to ships cooperating with Iran, FM says Time: 2026-05-14T07:15:01.198Z
[2] Vessel taken by unauthorized personnel and heading to Iranian waters, UKMTO says Time: 2026-05-14T07:03:43.463Z
[3] Iran orders seizure of assets belonging to people abroad over Israel-linked allegations Time: 2026-05-14T06:48:45.065Z
[4] Two India-bound fuel vessels transit Hormuz - Bloomberg Time: 2026-05-14T06:40:58.129Z
[5] Iran urges BRICS to condemn US, Israeli strikes Time: 2026-05-14T06:19:17.638Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled