Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-13 17:01:20 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 50% (3 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.440 below 0.45 and falling — institutional buying drying up |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.5B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.82% moderate, NFCI -0.524 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 46% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +11.6% growth optimism · real yield 1.95% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.75 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 139 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.50 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 39 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 67/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $101, watch for margin compression); DIX falling to 0.440 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 7.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.9 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.24)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $743.07 | 50 SMA $686.38 | 200 SMA $674.46 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.8
- QQQ: $715.95 | 50 SMA $625.01 | 200 SMA $608.75 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $690.99
- IWM: $282.78 | 50 SMA $262.49 | 200 SMA $250.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $266.99
- VIX: 17.87 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.481%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $743.07 ▲ | 76.09 | 31.2 | $730.80 | Bearish | 0.33 |
| QQQ | $715.95 ▲ | 79.23 | 54.5 | $690.99 | Bearish | 0.36 |
| IWM | $282.78 ▼ | 58.57 | 33.4 | $266.99 | Neutral | 0.51 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.87 | 44.88 | 15.8 | $11.01 | Neutral | 1.28 |
| TNX | 44.81 | 66.54 | 39.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $421.74 ▼ | 48.03 | 28.2 | $422.80 | Neutral | 0.82 |
| DXY | 98.48 ▼ | 45.72 ▼ | 29.6 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $79.12 ▼ | 66.48 | 23.6 | $70.45 | Bearish | 0.30 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.44
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.54B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.82% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 45.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 54.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 33.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 24/28 |
| Technology | 63.1% | 41/65 |
| Energy | 57.9% | 11/19 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 13/24 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Industrials | 49.3% | 33/67 |
| Financials | 47.1% | 32/68 |
| Consumer Staples | 44.1% | 15/34 |
| Health Care | 29.6% | 16/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 20.3% | 12/59 |
| Utilities | 20.0% | 6/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $100.80 ▼ (5d: +6.3% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $105.37 ▼ | Spread: $4.57
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.4600/gal ▼
- Heating Oil: $3.9400/gal ▼
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $51.24/bbl ▼ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.63
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.98
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.534 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.821 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | 0.385 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.747 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.24 ▼
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates ◆)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,037,571.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,616,102.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $493.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $743 | Put Wall: $725 (Spot: $743.07)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +5.3% (as of 2026-05-06)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.48%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.88 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.48 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.96 ▲
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.69% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.25%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 39/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6709.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $877.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $3.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,828B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,260B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,290B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,677 ▲ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.23 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.746 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.23 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.69% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $51.37/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $142.04 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.08%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- 30-Year Bond Auction: 5.050% | Prev: 4.876%
- Crude Oil Inventories: -4.306 vs Est. -2.000 (MISS) | Prev: -2.313
- PPI(MoM)(Apr): 1.4% vs Est. 0.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.7%
- Core PPI(MoM)(Apr): 1.0% vs Est. 0.3% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.2%
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -1.702 | Prev: -0.648
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.6% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑4.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑1.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (6):
[1] Silver Price Forecast: Six-day rally puts $90 in bulls' sights URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-bulls-eye-9000-as-momentum-surges-202605122027 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 20:31:16 Z
[2] Malaysia: Manageable subsidy costs and resilient funding - BNP Paribas URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-manageable-subsidy-costs-and-resilient-funding-bnp-paribas-202605132021 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 20:21:00 Z
[3] Forex Today: Hot US inflation data lifts US Dollar as markets brace for Retail Sales and UK GDP URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-hot-us-inflation-data-lifts-us-dollar-as-markets-brace-for-retail-sales-and-uk-gdp-202605132002 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 20:02:18 Z
[4] ECB's Lane: Current energy shock is unfolding in a less demand-supportive environment URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-lane-current-energy-shock-is-unfolding-in-a-less-demand-supportive-environment-202605132001 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 20:01:43 Z
[5] South Korean Won: Fading strength as volatility stays high - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korean-won-fading-strength-as-volatility-stays-high-ocbc-202605131942 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 19:42:31 Z
[6] ECB Philip Lane: Oil shock to require rate hikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-philip-lane-oil-shock-to-require-rate-hikes-202605131936 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 19:36:20 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Araghchi says those 'colluding with Israel' will face consequences Time: 2026-05-13T20:30:59.467Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled