Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-13 14:10:29 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 50% (3 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.440 below 0.45 and falling — institutional buying drying up |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.5B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.82% moderate, NFCI -0.524 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 47% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +12.3% growth optimism · real yield 1.95% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.75 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 139 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.48 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 42 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.8% stable, MOVE 72 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 67/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $101, watch for margin compression); DIX falling to 0.440 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 7.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.8 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.25)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $742.77 | 50 SMA $686.38 | 200 SMA $674.46 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.94
- QQQ: $714.86 | 50 SMA $625.01 | 200 SMA $608.75 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $690.99
- IWM: $282.80 | 50 SMA $262.49 | 200 SMA $250.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $266.97
- VIX: 17.81 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.479%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $742.77 ▲ | 76.09 | 31.2 | $730.94 | Bearish | 0.39 |
| QQQ | $714.86 ▲ | 79.23 | 54.5 | $690.99 | Bearish | 0.37 |
| IWM | $282.80 ▲ | 58.57 | 33.4 | $266.97 | Neutral | 0.66 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.81 ▼ | 44.88 | 15.8 | $10.75 | Neutral | 1.24 |
| TNX | 44.79 ▼ | 66.54 | 39.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $430.75 ▲ | 48.03 | 28.2 | $422.82 | Neutral | 0.79 |
| DXY | 98.54 ▲ | 46.59 ▲ | 30.1 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $79.89 ▲ | 66.48 | 23.6 | $71.90 | Bearish | 0.28 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.44
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.54B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.82% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 46.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 54.6%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 33.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 24/28 |
| Technology | 64.6% | 42/65 |
| Energy | 57.9% | 11/19 |
| Industrials | 55.2% | 37/67 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 13/24 |
| Financials | 49.3% | 33/67 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 9/20 |
| Consumer Staples | 44.1% | 15/34 |
| Health Care | 29.6% | 16/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 22.0% | 13/59 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 5/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $101.24 ▼ (5d: +6.8% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $105.79 ▼ | Spread: $4.55
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.4800/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9700/gal ▼
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $51.78/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.45 ▲
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.01
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.538 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.811 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | 0.387 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.747 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 ▼ (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,356,504.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,709,367.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.15 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $376.3B ▲
- Gamma Call Wall: $742 | Put Wall: $725 (Spot: $742.77)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +5.3% (as of 2026-05-06)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.48% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.88 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.54 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.96 ▲
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.69% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.25%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 42/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6709.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $877.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,831B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,260B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,292B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,528 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.38 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.746 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.38 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.69% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $51.78/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.95 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.06%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- 30-Year Bond Auction: 5.050% | Prev: 4.876%
- Crude Oil Inventories: -4.306 vs Est. -2.000 (MISS) | Prev: -2.313
- PPI(MoM)(Apr): 1.4% vs Est. 0.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.7%
- Core PPI(MoM)(Apr): 1.0% vs Est. 0.3% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.2%
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -1.702 | Prev: -0.648
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.6% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑4.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑1.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iran VP Aref says Tehran's "right" to Strait of Hormuz is settled Time: 2026-05-13T17:44:00.000Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled