Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-13 11:57:05 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 50% (3 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.440 below 0.45 and falling — institutional buying drying up |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.5B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.82% moderate, NFCI -0.524 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 48% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +12.5% growth optimism · real yield 1.95% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.74 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 18.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 139 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.47 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 46 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.8% stable, MOVE 72 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 66/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $102, watch for margin compression); DIX falling to 0.440 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 7.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.25)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $739.68 | 50 SMA $686.38 | 200 SMA $674.46 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.97
- QQQ: $710.83 | 50 SMA $625.01 | 200 SMA $608.75 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $691.0
- IWM: $281.71 | 50 SMA $262.49 | 200 SMA $250.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $266.98
- VIX: 18.12 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.487%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $739.68 ▼ | 76.09 | 31.2 | $730.97 | Neutral | 0.56 |
| QQQ | $710.83 ▼ | 79.23 | 54.5 | $691.00 | Neutral | 0.57 |
| IWM | $281.71 ▼ | 58.57 | 33.4 | $266.98 | Neutral | 0.94 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.12 ▲ | 44.88 | 15.8 | $10.75 | Neutral | 1.18 |
| TNX | 44.87 ▼ | 66.54 | 39.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $431.38 ▲ | 48.03 | 28.2 | $422.84 | Neutral | 0.76 |
| DXY | 98.46 | 45.36 | 29.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $80.33 ▲ | 66.48 | 23.6 | $69.62 | Bearish | 0.22 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.44
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.54B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.82% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 48.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 54.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 483
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 83.3% | 20/24 |
| Technology | 64.6% | 42/65 |
| Energy | 57.9% | 11/19 |
| Materials | 56.5% | 13/23 |
| Financials | 55.6% | 35/63 |
| Industrials | 50.0% | 33/66 |
| Consumer Staples | 47.1% | 16/34 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 9/20 |
| Health Care | 33.3% | 17/51 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 25.9% | 15/58 |
| Utilities | 13.8% | 4/29 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $102.35 ▲ (5d: +8.0% ▲)
- Brent Crude: $106.79 ▲ | Spread: $4.44 ▲
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.5100/gal ▲
- Heating Oil: $4.0200/gal ▲
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $52.21/bbl ▲ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.18 ▲
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.06
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.539 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.877 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | 0.404 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.738 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,508,993.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,752,297.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.16 ▲ (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $241.2B ▲
- Gamma Call Wall: $739 | Put Wall: $725 (Spot: $739.68)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +5.3% (as of 2026-05-06)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.49% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.88 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.46
- Growth vs Value: 0.96 ▼
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.69% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 46/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6709.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $877.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,831B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,260B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,292B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,160 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $102.10 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.739 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $102.10 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.69% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $52.04/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $143.57 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.04%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: -4.306 vs Est. -2.100 (MISS) | Prev: -2.313
- PPI(MoM)(Apr): 1.4% vs Est. 0.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.7%
- Core PPI(MoM)(Apr): 1.0% vs Est. 0.3% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.2%
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -1.702 | Prev: -0.648
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.6% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑4.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.48 (↑4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (3):
[1] Gold softens as stronger US Dollar and higher yields curb upside momentum URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-hovers-near-4-700-as-higher-for-longer-rate-outlook-limits-upside-202605131205 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 15:24:02 Z
[2] Euro: Trading mildly softer against US Dollar - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-trading-mildly-softer-against-us-dollar-scotiabank-202605131512 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 15:12:29 Z
[3] Japanese Yen falls as US inflation boosts Fed hike odds, Trump-Xi talks in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-falls-as-us-inflation-boosts-fed-hike-odds-trump-xi-talks-in-focus-202605131437 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 14:37:31 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] CENTCOM says 67 vessels from Iranian ports in four weeks Time: 2026-05-13T15:31:42.912Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled