Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-13 10:55:34 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 50% (3 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.440 below 0.45 and falling — institutional buying drying up |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | GEX +7.5B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.82% moderate, NFCI -0.524 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 48% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy RISING — oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +12.5% growth optimism · real yield 1.95% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | SPY/Oil -0.73 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 139 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.47 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 46 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.8% stable, MOVE 72 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 68/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $103, watch for margin compression); DIX falling to 0.440 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 7.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.9 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.25)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $738.91 | 50 SMA $686.38 | 200 SMA $674.46 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.98
- QQQ: $710.52 | 50 SMA $625.01 | 200 SMA $608.75 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $691.0
- IWM: $281.62 | 50 SMA $262.49 | 200 SMA $250.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $266.98
- VIX: 17.95 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.489%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $738.91 ▲ | 76.09 | 31.2 | $730.98 | Neutral | 0.61 |
| QQQ | $710.52 ▲ | 79.23 | 54.5 | $691.00 | Neutral | 0.59 |
| IWM | $281.62 ▲ | 58.57 | 33.4 | $266.98 | Neutral | 0.95 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.95 ▼ | 44.88 | 15.8 | $10.75 | Neutral | 1.20 |
| TNX | 44.89 | 66.54 | 39.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $429.65 ▼ | 48.03 | 28.2 | $422.91 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| DXY | 98.54 ▲ | 46.59 ▲ | 30.1 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $79.64 ▼ | 66.48 | 23.6 | $69.63 | Bearish | 0.24 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.44
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.54B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.82% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 48.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 54.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 483
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 83.3% | 20/24 |
| Technology | 64.6% | 42/65 |
| Energy | 57.9% | 11/19 |
| Materials | 56.5% | 13/23 |
| Financials | 55.6% | 35/63 |
| Industrials | 50.0% | 33/66 |
| Consumer Staples | 47.1% | 16/34 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 9/20 |
| Health Care | 33.3% | 17/51 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 25.9% | 15/58 |
| Utilities | 13.8% | 4/29 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $103.02 ▼ (5d: +8.7% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $107.62 ▼ | Spread: $4.60 ▼
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.5300/gal ▼
- Heating Oil: $4.0700/gal ▼
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $52.80/bbl ▼ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.14 ▼
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.05
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.542 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.881 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | 0.408 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.734 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,040,040.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,214,214.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.17 ▼ (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $166.6B ▲
- Gamma Call Wall: $739 | Put Wall: $725 (Spot: $738.91)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +5.3% (as of 2026-05-06)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.49%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.88 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.54 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.96 ▲
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.69% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 46/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6709.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $877.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,831B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,260B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,292B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,669 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $103.22 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.734 with energy in RISING — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $103.22 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.69% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $53.02/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $144.3 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.04%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: -4.306 vs Est. -2.000 (MISS) | Prev: -2.313
- PPI(MoM)(Apr): 1.4% vs Est. 0.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.7%
- Core PPI(MoM)(Apr): 1.0% vs Est. 0.3% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.2%
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -1.702 | Prev: -0.648
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.6% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑4.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.48 (↑4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change below forecasts (-2.1M) in May 8: Actual (-4.306M) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-eia-crude-oil-stocks-change-below-forecasts-21m-in-may-8-actual-4306m-202605131430 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 14:30:04 Z
[2] Japanese Yen: BoJ path and JGB selloff - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-path-and-jgb-selloff-bny-202605131429 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 14:29:28 Z
[3] BoE's Mann: Monetary policy cannot offset cost-push shocks from energy prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boes-mann-monetary-policy-cannot-offset-cost-push-shocks-from-energy-prices-202605131423 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 14:23:49 Z
[4] Euro weakens as hot US inflation data boosts Fed rate hike expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-weakens-as-hot-us-inflation-data-boosts-fed-rate-hike-expectations-202605131419 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 14:19:31 Z
[5] BoE expected to keep policy restrictive as inflation outlook stays elevated - Reuters poll URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boe-expected-to-keep-policy-restrictive-as-inflation-outlook-stays-elevated-reuters-poll-202605131419 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 14:19:28 Z
[6] Australian Dollar muted after higher-than-expected US PPI reading URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-muted-after-higher-than-expected-us-ppi-reading-202605131407 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 14:07:07 Z
[7] British Pound: Weakens agains Euro as political risks weigh - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-weakens-agains-euro-as-political-risks-weigh-ing-202605131406 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 14:06:57 Z
[8] BX hits blue box support to resume long term bullish trend URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bx-hits-blue-box-support-to-resume-long-term-bullish-trend-202605131348 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 13:48:06 Z
[9] PANW analysis: Elliott Wave forecasting bullish sequence above $300 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/panw-analysis-elliott-wave-forecasting-bullish-sequence-above-300-202605131342 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 13:42:02 Z
[10] United States Producer Price Index soars in April amid Iran war URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-producer-price-index-soars-in-april-amid-iran-war-202605131341 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 13:41:40 Z
[11] Canadian Dollar: Sideways against USD as valuation stretched - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-sideways-against-usd-as-valuation-stretched-scotiabank-202605131338 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 13:38:12 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iran MP rejects UAE claims of attacks by Tehran Time: 2026-05-13T14:30:54.410Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled