Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-13 09:01:06 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 40% (2 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.456 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | GEX +7.8B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.79% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 51% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy RISING — oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +11.2% growth optimism · real yield 1.93% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | SPY/Oil -0.73 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 18.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 139 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.46 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 41 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.8% stable, MOVE 72 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 74/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $102, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.456; GEX positive at 7.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.26)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $737.85 | 50 SMA $686.38 | 200 SMA $674.46 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $735.11
- QQQ: $709.07 | 50 SMA $625.01 | 200 SMA $608.75 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $696.01
- IWM: $281.77 | 50 SMA $262.49 | 200 SMA $250.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $273.31
- VIX: 18.15 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.477%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $737.85 ▼ | 76.09 | 31.2 | $735.11 | Neutral | 0.72 |
| QQQ | $709.07 ▼ | 79.23 | 54.5 | $696.01 | Bearish | 0.50 |
| IWM | $281.77 ▼ | 58.57 | 33.4 | $273.31 | Neutral | 0.93 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.15 ▲ | 44.88 | 15.8 | $10.75 | Neutral | 1.21 |
| TNX | 44.77 ▼ | 66.54 | 39.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $430.30 ▲ | 48.03 | 28.2 | $422.90 | Neutral | 0.71 |
| DXY | 98.57 ▲ | 46.98 ▲ | 30.4 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $78.33 | 66.48 | 23.6 | $70.16 | Bearish | 0.32 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.456
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.83B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.79% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 92.9% | 26/28 |
| Financials | 64.7% | 44/68 |
| Technology | 64.6% | 42/65 |
| Materials | 60.9% | 14/23 |
| Energy | 52.6% | 10/19 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Industrials | 50.0% | 33/66 |
| Consumer Staples | 47.1% | 16/34 |
| Health Care | 33.3% | 18/54 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 8/30 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 25.4% | 15/59 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING ◆
- WTI Crude: $102.50 ▲ (5d: +8.1% ▲)
- Brent Crude: $107.86 ▲ | Spread: $5.36 ▼
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.5200/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1500/gal ▲
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.16/bbl ▲ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.57
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.91
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.541 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.885 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | 0.409 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.732 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates ◆)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $548.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $739 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $737.85)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +5.3% (as of 2026-05-06)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.48% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.57 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.96 ▼
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.67% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 41/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6709.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $877.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,831B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,260B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,292B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $80,176 ▼ (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.456, GEX +7.8B, HY OAS 2.79%, breadth 51%.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $102.09 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime SHOCK with crack spread at $51.63/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.729 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $102.09 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.67% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $51.63/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $144.3 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.05%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: ⏳ Pending
- PPI(MoM)(Apr): 1.4% vs Est. 0.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.7%
- Core PPI(MoM)(Apr): 1.0% vs Est. 0.3% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.2%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.7% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑4.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑1.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (13):
[1] Germany Current Account n.s.a. increased to €23.6B in March from previous €22B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-current-account-nsa-increased-to-eu236b-in-march-from-previous-eu22b-202605131230 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 12:30:41 Z
[2] United States Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 6%, above expectations (4.9%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-producer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-6-above-expectations-49-in-april-202605131230 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 12:30:04 Z
[3] United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) came in at 5.2%, above forecasts (4.3%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-producer-price-index-ex-food-energy-yoy-came-in-at-52-above-forecasts-43-in-april-202605131230 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 12:30:04 Z
[4] United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) registered at 1% above expectations (0.3%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-producer-price-index-ex-food-energy-mom-registered-at-1-above-expectations-03-in-april-202605131230 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 12:30:04 Z
[5] United States Producer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (0.5%) in April: Actual (1.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-producer-price-index-mom-above-forecasts-05-in-april-actual-14-202605131230 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 12:30:04 Z
[6] Wix.com (WIX) misses Q1 earnings and revenue estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wixcom-wix-misses-q1-earnings-and-revenue-estimates-202605131225 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 12:25:59 Z
[7] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD extends decline below 20-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-extends-decline-below-20-day-ema-202605131213 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 12:13:26 Z
[8] Euro struggles around 1.1700 with US PPI, Trump-Xi meeting on tap URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-extends-losses-below-11700-as-eurozone-data-disappoints-202605131014 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 12:12:27 Z
[9] Fed: Credibility tested as inflation rises - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-credibility-tested-as-inflation-rises-commerzbank-202605131209 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 12:09:12 Z
[10] Gold hovers near $4,700 as higher-for-longer rate outlook limits upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-hovers-near-4-700-as-higher-for-longer-rate-outlook-limits-upside-202605131205 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 12:05:28 Z
[11] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Extends decline below 20-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-extends-decline-below-20-day-ema-202605131150 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 11:50:07 Z
[12] Indian Rupee: Import tariffs hike on Gold supports INR - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-import-tariffs-hike-on-gold-supports-inr-bny-202605131149 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 11:49:41 Z
[13] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds near $4,700 despite high US yields URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-holds-near-4-700-despite-high-us-yields-202605131140 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 11:40:02 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iran lawmaker says parliament panel finalized Strait of Hormuz oversight plan Time: 2026-05-13T12:36:22.517Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled