Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-12 15:00:55 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE — Moderate divergence — several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.456 above 0.45 and rising — institutions accumulating |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | GEX +7.8B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.79% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 50% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +10.6% growth optimism · real yield 1.93% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | SPY/Oil -0.76 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 18.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.42 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 41 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.0% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Cautious regime with SPY slipping, but dark pool, gamma, and credit flash bullish — 4 of 6 signals refuse to confirm the decline. Watch for: breadth falling below 40% (bearish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS — breadth at 50% and energy regime SHOCK keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $103, watch for margin compression); DIX rising to 0.456 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 7.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.25)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $736.00 | 50 SMA $685.35 | 200 SMA $673.95 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.99
- QQQ: $701.87 | 50 SMA $623.03 | 200 SMA $608.05 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $680.81
- IWM: $281.29 | 50 SMA $262.12 | 200 SMA $249.88 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $266.97
- VIX: 18.11 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.463%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $736.00 | 80.52 | 31.6 | $730.99 | Neutral | 1.40 |
| QQQ | $701.87 | 86.72 | 49.0 | $680.81 | Bearish | 2.06 |
| IWM | $281.29 | 65.57 | 31.6 | $266.97 | Bearish | 1.64 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.11 | 43.97 | 15.5 | $11.24 | Neutral | 1.34 |
| TNX | 44.63 | 62.83 | 36.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $431.21 | 54.03 | 28.2 | $417.59 | Neutral | 0.74 |
| DXY | 98.32 | 46.44 | 30.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $77.97 | 68.18 | 23.9 | $66.66 | Bearish | 0.30 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.456
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.83B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.79% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 49.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.0%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 24/28 |
| Technology | 64.6% | 42/65 |
| Financials | 61.8% | 42/68 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 14/24 |
| Energy | 52.6% | 10/19 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Industrials | 49.3% | 33/67 |
| Consumer Staples | 47.1% | 16/34 |
| Health Care | 34.0% | 18/53 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 25.4% | 15/59 |
| Utilities | 20.0% | 6/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $102.62 (5d: +7.9%)
- Brent Crude: $108.03 | Spread: $5.41
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.5500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $55.16/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.76
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.91
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.549 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.907 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | 0.38 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.755 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,917,148.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,553,462.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.22 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $476.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $740 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $736.00)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +5.3% (as of 2026-05-06)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.46%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.86 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.32
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.67% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 41/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6709.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $877.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,831B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,278B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,211B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,319B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $80,687 ▲ (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $102.62 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime SHOCK with crack spread at $55.16/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 140 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.754 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $102.62 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.67% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $55.16/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $144.54 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.01%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- 10-Year Note Auction: 4.468% | Prev: 4.282%
- CPI(MoM)(Apr): 0.6% vs Est. 0.6% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.9%
- CPI(YoY)(Apr): 3.8% vs Est. 3.7% (BEAT) | Prev: 3.3%
- Core CPI(MoM)(Apr): 0.4% vs Est. 0.3% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.2%
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 33.00 | Prev: 39.25
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: ⏳ Pending
- Core CPI(YoY)(Apr): 2.8% vs Est. 2.7% (BEAT) | Prev: 2.6%
- Federal Budget Balance(Apr): 215.0 vs Est. 157.2 (BEAT) | Prev: -164.0
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.7% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑4.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑1.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Saudi Arabia carried out strikes on Iran in late March - Reuters Time: 2026-05-12T18:45:49.072Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled