Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-12 08:00:24 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (3 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.430 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +21.3B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.81% moderate, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 50% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +9.5% growth optimism · real yield 1.96% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.72 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 18.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.34 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 38 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.0% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and carry) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 76 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.430) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.430; GEX positive at 21.3B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.4 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.23)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $739.16 | 50 SMA $684.28 | 200 SMA $673.43 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $718.14
- QQQ: $713.10 | 50 SMA $620.91 | 200 SMA $607.30 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $690.95
- IWM: $285.33 | 50 SMA $261.64 | 200 SMA $249.57 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $266.94
- VIX: 18.38 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.410%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $739.16 | 73.82 | 32.3 | $718.14 | Neutral | 0.74 |
| QQQ | $713.10 | 84.17 | 49.4 | $690.95 | Bearish | 0.42 |
| IWM | $285.33 | 59.36 | 32.8 | $266.94 | Neutral | 0.61 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.38 | 40.37 | 11.7 | $11.26 | Neutral | 1.25 |
| TNX | 44.10 | 62.50 | 33.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $435.23 | 44.43 | 28.2 | $419.03 | Neutral | 0.52 |
| DXY | 97.94 | 43.42 | 28.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $78.09 | 51.73 | 20.5 | $69.42 | Bearish | 0.49 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.43
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 21.32B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.81% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 24/28 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 16/24 |
| Technology | 63.1% | 41/65 |
| Financials | 61.8% | 42/68 |
| Industrials | 55.2% | 37/67 |
| Energy | 52.6% | 10/19 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Consumer Staples | 47.1% | 16/34 |
| Health Care | 31.5% | 17/54 |
| Utilities | 23.3% | 7/30 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 22.0% | 13/59 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $98.25 (5d: -3.9%)
- Brent Crude: $104.42 | Spread: $6.17
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.4400/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.93/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.17
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.22
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.591 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.898 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | 0.384 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.724 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,637,697.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,320,235.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.26 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $440.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $740 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $739.16)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +5.3% (as of 2026-05-06)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.41%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.81 (Normal)
- DXY: 97.94
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.62% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.45%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 38/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6709.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $877.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,831B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,290B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,211B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,332B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $80,752 ▼ (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 140 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.724 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $98.25 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.62% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $53.93/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $138.66 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Breadth crossed above 50% (50% >50d SMA) — participation broadening, bullish reversal signal.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.06%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(Apr): 4.02 vs Est. 4.05 (MISS) | Prev: 4.01
- 3-Year Note Auction: 3.965% | Prev: 3.897%
- Existing Home Sales(MoM)(Apr): 0.2% | Prev: -2.9%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.7% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑4.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑1.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (14):
[1] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD slides to $4,700 ahead of US CPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-slides-to-4-700-ahead-of-us-cpi-data-202605121126 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 11:26:55 Z
[2] Gold reverses gains as US CPI data takes center stage URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-reverses-gains-as-us-cpi-data-takes-center-stage-202605121126 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 11:26:45 Z
[3] Japanese Yen: Intervention doubts and BoJ hike risk - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-doubts-and-boj-hike-risk-bbh-202605121121 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 11:21:36 Z
[4] Swiss Franc weakens as SNB resists currency strength, US CPI awaited URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-as-snb-resists-currency-strength-us-cpi-awaited-202605121112 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 11:12:23 Z
[5] South Africa Manufacturing Production Index (YoY) up to 0.9% in March from previous -2.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-manufacturing-production-index-yoy-up-to-09-in-march-from-previous-28-202605121100 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 11:00:08 Z
[6] US CPI data set to show inflation close to three-year high as Iran war has no end in sight URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cpi-data-set-to-show-another-jump-in-inflation-to-highest-level-in-nearly-three-years-202605120400 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 10:45:00 Z
[7] Indian Rupee slides to fresh all-time lows against US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-slumps-to-fresh-all-time-lows-on-renewed-us-iran-tensions-202605120523 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 10:43:38 Z
[8] US Dollar: Inflation focus shapes rate expectations - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-inflation-focus-shapes-rate-expectations-td-securities-202605121003 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 10:03:52 Z
[9] United States NFIB Business Optimism Index below expectations (96.1) in April: Actual (95.9) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-nfib-business-optimism-index-below-expectations-961-in-april-actual-959-202605121000 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 10:00:00 Z
[10] Euro dips below 1.1750 amid mixed Economic Sentiment data, growing geopolitical risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-dips-below-11750-amid-mixed-economic-sentiment-data-growing-geopolitical-risks-202605120951 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 09:51:59 Z
[11] Silver: Tentative breakout above resistance - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-tentative-breakout-above-resistance-ocbc-202605120943 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 09:43:09 Z
[12] UK PM Starmer says that he is not quitting in a cabinet meeting on Tuesday URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uk-pm-starmer-says-that-he-is-not-quitting-in-a-cabinet-meeting-on-tuesday-202605120937 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 09:37:00 Z
[13] Australia sees CPI inflation at 5% in 2025/26, 2.5% through 2029/30 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-sees-cpi-inflation-at-5-in-2025-26-25-through-2029-30-202605120935 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 09:35:45 Z
[14] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202605120933 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 09:33:10 Z
Iran War News
Updates (7):
[1] Kuwait Iran infiltration case puts focus on China-backed island port Time: 2026-05-12T11:49:58.372Z
[2] UAE gas plant hit in Iranian attacks may not fully recover until 2027 - FT Time: 2026-05-12T11:42:10.399Z
[3] Iran, Uzbekistan FMs discuss regional diplomacy in phone call Time: 2026-05-12T11:30:06.971Z
[4] Qatar tells ships near LNG hub to go dark - Bloomberg Time: 2026-05-12T11:12:33.241Z
[5] Iran businesses scale back as inflation, internet curbs bite Time: 2026-05-12T11:01:10.938Z
[6] Turkey says Hormuz should not be used as weapon in Iran war Time: 2026-05-12T10:47:19.155Z
[7] Kuwait says detained infiltrators admitted links to Revolutionary Guards Time: 2026-05-12T10:08:01.816Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled