Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-12 04:00:27 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (3 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.430 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +21.3B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.81% moderate, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 50% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +9.5% growth optimism · real yield 1.96% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.72 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 18.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.34 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 38 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.0% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and carry) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 76 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.430) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.430; GEX positive at 21.3B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.4 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.23)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $739.16 | 50 SMA $684.28 | 200 SMA $673.43 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $718.14
- QQQ: $713.10 | 50 SMA $620.91 | 200 SMA $607.30 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $690.95
- IWM: $285.33 | 50 SMA $261.64 | 200 SMA $249.57 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $266.94
- VIX: 18.38 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.410%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $739.16 | 73.82 | 32.3 | $718.14 | Neutral | 0.74 |
| QQQ | $713.10 | 84.17 | 49.4 | $690.95 | Bearish | 0.42 |
| IWM | $285.33 | 59.36 | 32.8 | $266.94 | Neutral | 0.61 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.38 | 40.37 | 11.7 | $11.26 | Neutral | 1.25 |
| TNX | 44.10 | 62.50 | 33.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $435.23 | 44.43 | 28.2 | $419.03 | Neutral | 0.52 |
| DXY | 97.94 | 43.42 | 28.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $78.09 | 51.73 | 20.5 | $69.42 | Bearish | 0.49 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.43
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 21.32B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.81% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 24/28 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 16/24 |
| Technology | 63.1% | 41/65 |
| Financials | 61.8% | 42/68 |
| Industrials | 55.2% | 37/67 |
| Energy | 52.6% | 10/19 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Consumer Staples | 47.1% | 16/34 |
| Health Care | 31.5% | 17/54 |
| Utilities | 23.3% | 7/30 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 22.0% | 13/59 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $98.25 (5d: -3.9%)
- Brent Crude: $104.42 | Spread: $6.17
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.4400/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.93/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.17
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.22
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.591 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.898 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | 0.384 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.724 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,637,697.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,320,235.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.26 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $440.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $719 | Put Wall: $725 (Spot: $739.16)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +5.3% (as of 2026-05-06)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.41%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.81 (Normal)
- DXY: 97.94
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.62% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.45%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 38/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6709.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $877.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,831B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,290B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,211B ▼
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,332B ◆
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $80,782 ▼ (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 140 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.724 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $98.25 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.62% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $53.93/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $138.66 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.06%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(Apr): 4.02 vs Est. 4.05 (MISS) | Prev: 4.01
- 3-Year Note Auction: 3.965% | Prev: 3.897%
- Existing Home Sales(MoM)(Apr): 0.2% | Prev: -2.9%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.7% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑4.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑1.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (25):
[1] Fed: Rate cuts contingent on Strait of Hormuz - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-rate-cuts-contingent-on-strait-of-hormuz-bny-202605120719 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 07:19:52 Z
[2] Oil: War risk and supply chains - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-war-risk-and-supply-chains-rabobank-202605120714 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 07:14:07 Z
[3] Equities: Mixed sector drivers in global rally - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-mixed-sector-drivers-in-global-rally-danske-bank-202605120654 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:54:43 Z
[4] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD retreats below $85.00 as market sentiment sours URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-retreats-below-8500-as-market-sentiment-sours-202605120653 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:53:06 Z
[5] Gold slips below $4,700 as Iran tensions and Fed hike bets support USD ahead of US CPI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-eases-from-three-week-top-as-iran-tensions-and-hawkish-fed-bets-support-usd-202605120321 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:51:55 Z
[6] Gold: Path higher hinges on Fed easing - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-path-higher-hinges-on-fed-easing-ing-202605120650 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:50:53 Z
[7] Indian Rupee slumps to fresh all-time lows amid firm oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-slumps-to-fresh-all-time-lows-on-renewed-us-iran-tensions-202605120523 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:48:42 Z
[8] When is the German ZEW Survey and how could it affect the Euro? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/when-is-the-german-zew-survey-and-how-could-it-affect-the-euro-202605120644 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:44:28 Z
[9] Indian Rupee: Upside CPI and RBI tightening risks - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-upside-cpi-and-rbi-tightening-risks-mufg-202605120638 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:38:56 Z
[10] Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) rose from previous -2.7% to -2% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-producer-and-import-prices-yoy-rose-from-previous-27-to-2-in-april-202605120633 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:33:24 Z
[11] Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above forecasts (0.1%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-producer-and-import-prices-mom-came-in-at-08-above-forecasts-01-in-april-202605120632 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:32:55 Z
[12] GBP/USD Price Forecast: 61.8% Fibo retracement near 1.3600 remains key barrier URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-618-fibo-retracement-near-13600-remains-key-barrier-202605120631 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:31:24 Z
[13] US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Coordinated with Japan against excessive volatility in forex URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-treasury-secretary-bessent-coordinated-with-japan-against-excessive-volatility-in-forex-202605120624 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:24:12 Z
[14] Euro strengthens against British Pound on UK political uncertainty, ECB hawkish signals URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-strengthens-against-british-pound-on-uk-political-uncertainty-ecb-hawkish-signals-202605120620 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:20:11 Z
[15] US Dollar Index: Supported by yields before CPI - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-supported-by-yields-before-cpi-commerzbank-202605120618 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:18:46 Z
[16] Si-Bone (SIBN) reports Q1 loss, tops revenue estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/si-bone-sibn-reports-q1-loss-tops-revenue-estimates-202605120612 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:12:46 Z
[17] Australian Dollar : Downside risk versus US Dollar within range - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-downside-risk-versus-us-dollar-within-range-uob-202605120607 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:07:45 Z
[18] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets forecasts (0.5%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-meets-forecasts-05-in-april-202605120600 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:00:05 Z
[19] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets expectations (2.9%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-meets-expectations-29-in-april-202605120600 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:00:05 Z
[20] Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.6%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-consumer-price-index-mom-in-line-with-forecasts-06-in-april-202605120600 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:00:05 Z
[21] Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.9%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-consumer-price-index-yoy-meets-forecasts-29-in-april-202605120600 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:00:04 Z
[22] US CPI data set to show inflation accelerated in April, drifting away from Fed target URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cpi-data-set-to-show-another-jump-in-inflation-to-highest-level-in-nearly-three-years-202605120400 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 06:00:00 Z
[23] WTI rises to near $96.00 as supply concerns prevail URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-rises-to-near-9600-as-supply-concerns-prevail-202605120545 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 05:45:29 Z
[24] Australian Dollar trades with caution in countdown to the Budget release URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-trades-with-caution-in-countdown-to-the-budget-release-202605120530 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 05:30:49 Z
[25] Japanese Yen softens ahead of US CPI inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-softens-ahead-of-us-cpi-inflation-data-202605120528 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 05:28:38 Z
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Guards navy says Iran won't allow incursions into its waters Time: 2026-05-12T07:41:59.956Z
[2] Iran lawmaker says 90% enrichment possible if attacked again Time: 2026-05-12T07:09:49.526Z
[3] Man charged over arson attack at former synagogue in east London Time: 2026-05-12T07:05:51.569Z
[4] Iran lawmaker says 205,000 seek unemployment benefits since war began Time: 2026-05-12T06:11:44.626Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled