Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-11 22:00:24 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (3 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.430 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +21.3B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.81% moderate, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 50% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +9.5% growth optimism · real yield 1.96% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.75 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 18.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.34 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 38 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.0% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and carry) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 76 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.430) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.430; GEX positive at 21.3B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.4 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.23)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $739.16 | 50 SMA $684.28 | 200 SMA $673.43 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $718.14
- QQQ: $713.10 | 50 SMA $620.91 | 200 SMA $607.30 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $690.95
- IWM: $285.33 | 50 SMA $261.64 | 200 SMA $249.57 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $266.94
- VIX: 18.38 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.410%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $739.16 | 73.82 | 32.3 | $718.14 | Neutral | 0.74 |
| QQQ | $713.10 | 84.17 | 49.4 | $690.95 | Bearish | 0.42 |
| IWM | $285.33 | 59.36 | 32.8 | $266.94 | Neutral | 0.61 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.38 | 40.37 | 11.7 | $11.26 | Neutral | 1.25 |
| TNX | 44.10 | 62.50 | 33.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $435.23 | 44.43 | 28.2 | $419.03 | Neutral | 0.52 |
| DXY | 97.94 | 43.42 | 28.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $78.09 | 51.73 | 20.5 | $69.42 | Bearish | 0.49 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.43
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 21.32B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.81% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 24/28 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 16/24 |
| Technology | 63.1% | 41/65 |
| Financials | 61.8% | 42/68 |
| Industrials | 55.2% | 37/67 |
| Energy | 52.6% | 10/19 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Consumer Staples | 47.1% | 16/34 |
| Health Care | 31.5% | 17/54 |
| Utilities | 23.3% | 7/30 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 22.0% | 13/59 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $98.25 (5d: -3.9%)
- Brent Crude: $104.42 | Spread: $6.17
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.4400/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.93/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.17
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.22
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.601 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.904 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | 0.383 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.749 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,637,697.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,320,235.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.26 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $440.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $740 | Put Wall: $738 (Spot: $739.16)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +5.3% (as of 2026-05-06)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.41%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.81 (Normal)
- DXY: 97.94
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.62% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.45%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 38/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6709.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $877.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,831B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,287B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,220B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,338B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $81,162 ▼ (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 140 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.749 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $98.25 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.62% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $53.93/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $138.66 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.06%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(Apr): 4.02 vs Est. 4.05 (MISS) | Prev: 4.01
- 3-Year Note Auction: 3.965% | Prev: 3.897%
- Existing Home Sales(MoM)(Apr): 0.2% | Prev: -2.9%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.7% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑4.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑1.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (10):
[1] Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions: 3 (April) vs previous 6 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-national-australia-banks-business-conditions-3-april-vs-previous-6-202605120130 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 01:30:02 Z
[2] Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence rose from previous -29 to -24 in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-national-australia-banks-business-confidence-rose-from-previous-29-to-24-in-april-202605120130 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 01:30:00 Z
[3] Japan's Katayama: US and Japan affirm close cooperation on currency moves URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-katayama-us-and-japan-affirm-close-cooperation-on-currency-moves-202605120127 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 01:27:51 Z
[4] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8426 vs. 6.8467 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-68426-vs-68467-previous-202605120115 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 01:15:30 Z
[5] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Eyes nine-day EMA support near 0.7200 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-eyes-nine-day-ema-support-near-07200-202605120115 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 01:15:08 Z
[6] Japanese Yen drifts lower vs USD as weak Household Spending data counters hawkish BoJ URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-drifts-lower-vs-usd-as-weak-household-spending-data-counters-hawkish-boj-202605120113 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 01:13:04 Z
[7] US President Donald Trump seriously weighs resuming combat operations after weeks of restraint -- CNN URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-donald-trump-seriously-weighs-resuming-combat-operations-after-weeks-of-restraint-cnn-202605120111 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 01:11:31 Z
[8] Euro softens below 1.1800 on US-Iran ceasefire risks, traders await US CPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-softens-below-11800-on-us-iran-ceasefire-risks-traders-await-us-cpi-data-202605120027 Published: Tue, 12 May 2026 00:27:53 Z
[9] BoJ Summary of Opinions: Member says bank may need to tackle risk of rising price deviations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boj-summary-of-opinions-member-says-bank-may-need-to-tackle-risk-of-rising-price-deviations-202605112356 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 23:56:07 Z
[10] Japan JP Foreign Reserves down to $1B in April from previous $1374.7B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-jp-foreign-reserves-down-to-1b-in-april-from-previous-13747b-202605112350 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 23:50:02 Z
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Tehran rejects US terms as hardliners push escalation Time: 2026-05-12T01:42:00.000Z
[2] Schumer pushes new Senate vote to end Iran war Time: 2026-05-12T01:16:00.000Z
[3] TankerTrackers floats tongue-in-cheek Hormuz bypass through Oman Time: 2026-05-12T00:44:00.000Z
[4] Iran war helps narrow Australia's budget deficit Time: 2026-05-12T00:01:00.000Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled