Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-11 10:49:11 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (3 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.430 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +21.3B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.81% moderate, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 51% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +8.8% growth optimism · real yield 1.96% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.76 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 18.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 138 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.30 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 38 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 67 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and carry) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 76 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.430) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.430; GEX positive at 21.3B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.23)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $739.00 | 50 SMA $684.28 | 200 SMA $673.43 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.65
- QQQ: $712.07 | 50 SMA $620.91 | 200 SMA $607.30 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $690.96
- IWM: $286.04 | 50 SMA $261.64 | 200 SMA $249.57 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $266.94
- VIX: 18.14 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.394%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $739.00 ▲ | 73.82 | 32.3 | $730.65 | Neutral | 0.61 |
| QQQ | $712.07 ▲ | 84.17 | 49.4 | $690.96 | Bearish | 0.37 |
| IWM | $286.04 ▼ | 59.36 | 32.8 | $266.94 | Neutral | 0.62 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.14 ▼ | 40.37 | 11.7 | $11.26 | Neutral | 1.27 |
| TNX | 43.94 ▲ | 62.50 | 33.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $434.27 ▼ | 44.43 | 28.2 | $419.08 | Neutral | 0.63 |
| DXY | 97.87 ▼ | 42.26 ▼ | 28.5 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $76.67 ▼ | 51.73 | 20.5 | $64.78 | Bearish | 0.29 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.43
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 21.32B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.81% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.4%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 490
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 92.3% | 24/26 |
| Technology | 66.2% | 43/65 |
| Financials | 65.7% | 44/67 |
| Materials | 56.5% | 13/23 |
| Consumer Staples | 51.5% | 17/33 |
| Industrials | 50.8% | 33/65 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Energy | 42.1% | 8/19 |
| Health Care | 33.3% | 18/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 33.3% | 19/57 |
| Utilities | 17.2% | 5/29 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $97.49 ▼ (5d: -4.7% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $103.77 ▼ | Spread: $6.28 ▼
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.4300/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.43/bbl ▲ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.71 ▲
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.06 ▲
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.622 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.908 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | 0.384 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.759 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 67.25
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 887,218.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 950,981.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.07 ▼ (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $135.8B ▲
- Gamma Call Wall: $740 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $739.00)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +5.3% (as of 2026-05-06)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.39% ▲
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.80 ▲ (Normal)
- DXY: 97.87 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.96 ▲
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.62% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.45%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 38/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6709.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $877.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,831B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,287B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,220B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,338B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $80,752 (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.759 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $97.69 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.62% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $53.23/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $137.39 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.430 — institutional buying support fading.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.04%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(Apr): 4.02 vs Est. 4.05 (MISS) | Prev: 4.01
- Existing Home Sales(MoM)(Apr): 0.2% | Prev: -2.9%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.7% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑1.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] BoC: Patience on hikes despite oil shock - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boc-patience-on-hikes-despite-oil-shock-td-securities-202605111433 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 14:33:47 Z
[2] Silver price rallies to two-month high as US-Iran tensions boost haven demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-rallies-to-two-month-high-as-us-iran-tensions-boost-haven-demand-202605111432 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 14:32:33 Z
[3] US Dollar Index: DXY trading in range as inflation eyed - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-dxy-trading-in-range-as-inflation-eyed-ing-202605111424 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 14:24:13 Z
[4] Canadian Dollar: Risks skewed higher against US Dollar - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-risks-skewed-higher-against-us-dollar-scotiabank-202605111414 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 14:14:23 Z
[5] Australian Dollar: Carry appeal boosted by RBA stance - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-carry-appeal-boosted-by-rba-stance-mufg-202605111407 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 14:07:11 Z
[6] HIMS has build an inverse head and shoulders -- The neckline is being tests, the target is $50 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hims-has-build-an-inverse-head-and-shoulders-the-neckline-is-being-tests-the-target-is-50-202605111404 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 14:04:24 Z
[7] United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) registered at 4.02M, below expectations (4.05M) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-existing-home-sales-mom-registered-at-402m-below-expectations-405m-in-april-202605111400 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 14:00:01 Z
[8] United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) increased to 0.2% in April from previous -3.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-existing-home-sales-change-mom-increased-to-02-in-april-from-previous-36-202605111400 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 14:00:01 Z
[9] British Pound: Growth slowdown and BoE tightening - BNP Paribas URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-growth-slowdown-and-boe-tightening-bnp-paribas-202605111354 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 13:54:59 Z
[10] Gold recovers from bearish gap but higher-for-longer rate fears cap gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-gaps-lower-as-higher-for-longer-fed-outlook-weighs-on-sentiment-202605111157 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 13:50:28 Z
[11] US: CPI inflation pulse and Fed path - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cpi-inflation-pulse-and-fed-path-td-securities-202605111343 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 13:43:49 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iran MP says uranium enrichment not negotiable Time: 2026-05-11T14:29:23.466Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled