Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-11 09:58:48 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (3 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.430 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +21.3B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.79% moderate, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 51% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +8.8% growth optimism · real yield 1.96% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.77 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 18.2 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 138 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.30 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 38 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 67 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and carry) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 76 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.430) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.430; GEX positive at 21.3B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 51% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.2 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.23)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $738.73 | 50 SMA $684.28 | 200 SMA $673.43 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.7
- QQQ: $711.08 | 50 SMA $620.91 | 200 SMA $607.30 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $690.85
- IWM: $286.17 | 50 SMA $261.64 | 200 SMA $249.57 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $273.38
- VIX: 18.19 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.380%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $738.73 ▼ | 73.82 | 32.3 | $730.70 | Neutral | 0.64 |
| QQQ | $711.08 ▼ | 84.17 | 49.4 | $690.85 | Neutral | 0.54 |
| IWM | $286.17 ▲ | 59.36 | 32.8 | $273.38 | Neutral | 0.64 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.19 ▼ | 40.37 | 11.7 | $11.26 | Neutral | 1.27 |
| TNX | 43.80 ▼ | 62.50 | 33.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $435.27 ▲ | 44.43 | 28.2 | $419.06 | Neutral | 0.54 |
| DXY | 97.88 ▼ | 42.43 ▼ | 28.6 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $77.64 ▲ | 51.73 | 20.5 | $69.51 | Bearish | 0.28 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.43
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 21.32B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.79% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.4%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 490
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 92.3% | 24/26 |
| Technology | 66.2% | 43/65 |
| Financials | 65.7% | 44/67 |
| Materials | 56.5% | 13/23 |
| Consumer Staples | 51.5% | 17/33 |
| Industrials | 50.8% | 33/65 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Energy | 42.1% | 8/19 |
| Health Care | 33.3% | 18/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 33.3% | 19/57 |
| Utilities | 17.2% | 5/29 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $96.27 ▼ (5d: -5.9% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $102.98 ▼ | Spread: $6.71 ▲
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.4100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.09/bbl ▲ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.58 ▼
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.00 ▼
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.619 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.908 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | 0.384 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.765 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 67.25
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 433,497.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 384,971.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.89 ▲ (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $60.5B ▲
- Gamma Call Wall: $740 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $738.73)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +5.3% (as of 2026-05-06)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.38% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.78 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 97.88 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.96 ▼
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.62% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.45%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 38/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6709.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $877.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,831B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,287B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,220B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,338B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $81,069 (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.765 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $96.51 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.62% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $53.85/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $135.96 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.430 — institutional buying support fading.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.04%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(Apr): ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.7% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑1.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] Hungarian Forint: Rally against Euro seen extending - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hungarian-forint-rally-against-euro-seen-extending-ing-202605111330 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 13:30:49 Z
[2] Japanese Yen : Intervention support and rate path - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-support-and-rate-path-rabobank-202605111313 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 13:13:15 Z
[3] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Buyers retain control above 200-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-buyers-retain-control-above-200-day-sma-202605111311 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 13:11:42 Z
[4] Canadian Dollar steadies as Middle East Oil shock caps US Dollar rebound URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-steadies-as-middle-east-oil-shock-caps-us-dollar-rebound-202605111305 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 13:05:15 Z
[5] Norwegian Krone: Norges Bank's surprise hike and risk support - HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norwegian-krone-norges-banks-surprise-hike-and-risk-support-hsbc-202605111245 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 12:45:22 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] UK sanctions 12 people, firms linked to Iran Time: 2026-05-11T13:40:39.413Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled