Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-11 04:00:28 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY 0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.430 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +21.3B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.79% moderate, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 52% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +5.8% growth optimism · real yield 1.96% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.76 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.2 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 138 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.63 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 38 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 67 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and energy) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 77/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 77 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.430) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.430; GEX positive at 21.3B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.2 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.24)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $737.74 | 50 SMA $684.28 | 200 SMA $673.43 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $723.6
- QQQ: $712.11 | 50 SMA $620.91 | 200 SMA $607.30 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $687.6
- IWM: $284.17 | 50 SMA $261.64 | 200 SMA $249.57 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $262.5
- VIX: 17.19 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.364%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $737.74 | 73.82 | 32.3 | $723.60 | Neutral | 0.51 |
| QQQ | $712.11 | 84.17 | 49.4 | $687.60 | Bearish | 0.38 |
| IWM | $284.17 | 59.36 | 32.8 | $262.50 | Neutral | 0.72 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.19 | 40.37 | 11.7 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.62 |
| TNX | 43.64 | 62.50 | 33.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $432.83 | 44.43 | 28.2 | $419.16 | Neutral | 0.67 |
| DXY | 97.84 | 47.27 | 28.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $72.80 | 51.73 | 20.5 | $64.83 | Bearish | 0.40 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.43
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 21.32B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.79% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 52.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 24/28 |
| Technology | 70.8% | 46/65 |
| Financials | 64.7% | 44/68 |
| Industrials | 55.2% | 37/67 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Consumer Staples | 50.0% | 17/34 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 12/24 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 37.3% | 22/59 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 7/19 |
| Health Care | 35.2% | 19/54 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 4/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $95.42 (5d: -10.3%)
- Brent Crude: $101.29 | Spread: $5.87
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3600/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.26/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $55.70
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.57
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.658 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.908 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | 0.386 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.757 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 67.25
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.18 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $447.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $740 | Put Wall: $720 (Spot: $737.74)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +5.3% (as of 2026-05-06)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.36%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.77 (Normal)
- DXY: 97.84
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.62% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.45%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 38/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6709.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $877.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,831B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,287B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,220B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,338B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $80,710 ▼ (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $95.42 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.62% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $53.26/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $133.59 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.430 — institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [INFO] SPY (716.59) reclaimed ZGL (704.87) — volatility dampening resumes.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.04%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Average Hourly Earnings(MoM)(Apr): 0.2% vs Est. 0.3% (MISS) | Prev: 0.2%
- Nonfarm Payrolls(Apr): 115 vs Est. 65 (BEAT) | Prev: 185
- Unemployment Rate(Apr): 4.3% vs Est. 4.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 4.3%
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): 3.7% vs Est. 3.7% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.7%
- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(YoY)(Apr): 3.6% vs Est. 3.8% (MISS) | Prev: 3.4%
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(May): 4.5% vs Est. 4.8% (MISS) | Prev: 4.7%
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(May): 3.4% vs Est. 3.5% (MISS) | Prev: 3.5%
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(May): 48.5 vs Est. 48.1 (BEAT) | Prev: 48.1
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(May): 48.2 vs Est. 49.7 (MISS) | Prev: 49.8
- Participation Rate(Apr): 61.8% | Prev: 61.9%
- Private Nonfarm Payrolls(Apr): 123 vs Est. 75 (BEAT) | Prev: 190
- U6 Unemployment Rate(Apr): 8.2% | Prev: 8.0%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.7% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓1.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑4.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑1.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (18):
[1] USD/CHF Price Forecast: Sticks to gains below 0.7800 on firmer USD; bearish bias persists URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-sticks-to-gains-below-07800-on-firmer-usd-bearish-bias-persists-202605110736 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 07:36:47 Z
[2] Nintendo's stock faces a critical test: Profitability and recovery URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nintendos-stock-faces-a-critical-test-profitability-and-recovery-202605110735 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 07:35:04 Z
[3] Indian Rupee: PMI resilience contrasts with weakness - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-pmi-resilience-contrasts-with-weakness-commerzbank-202605110731 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 07:31:44 Z
[4] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises toward $81.00 despite cautious Fed's outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-rises-toward-8100-despite-cautious-feds-outlook-202605110707 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 07:07:23 Z
[5] Japanese Yen: Sideways against US Dollar after volatile swings - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-sideways-against-us-dollar-after-volatile-swings-mufg-202605110705 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 07:05:39 Z
[6] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Flat lines below 1.3700, while remaining below key 100-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-flat-lines-below-13700-while-remaining-below-key-100-day-ema-202605110700 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 07:00:09 Z
[7] S&P 500: AI and earnings extend rally - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-ai-and-earnings-extend-rally-deutsche-bank-202605110655 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 06:55:21 Z
[8] British Pound fills weekly bearish gap vs weaker JPY; GBP/JPY steadies below mid-213.00s URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-fills-weekly-bearish-gap-vs-weaker-jpy-gbp-jpy-steadies-below-mid-21300s-202605110653 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 06:53:47 Z
[9] Indian Rupee plummets US-Iran deadlock boosts oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-slumps-as-dashed-hopes-of-us-iran-resolution-lift-oil-prices-202605110531 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 06:51:21 Z
[10] Oil: Prices bounce but weekly losses deepen on Hormuz tensions - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-prices-bounce-but-weekly-losses-deepen-on-hormuz-tensions-uob-202605110646 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 06:46:46 Z
[11] EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Resistance around 0.8655 keeps holding bulls URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-price-forecast-resistance-around-08655-keeps-holding-bulls-202605110645 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 06:45:27 Z
[12] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Advancing 20-day EMA backs more upside towards 0.7300 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-advancing-20-day-ema-backs-more-upside-towards-07300-202605110633 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 06:33:48 Z
[13] USD: Legal risks from China sanctions clash - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-legal-risks-from-china-sanctions-clash-commerzbank-202605110621 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 06:21:17 Z
[14] Gold slides to $4,650 as USD benefits from Iran tensions and Fed hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-remains-depressed-below-4-700-as-us-iran-tensions-and-inflation-fears-underpin-usd-202605110446 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 06:09:51 Z
[15] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD attracts some dip-buying at the start of a new week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-attracts-some-dip-buying-at-the-start-of-a-new-week-202605110600 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 06:00:29 Z
[16] Japanese Yen softens on Middle East tensions, Japan signals scope for more intervention URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-softens-on-middle-east-tensions-japan-signals-scope-for-more-intervention-202605110555 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 05:55:00 Z
[17] PBOC plans to boost international use of Chinese Yuan URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-plans-to-boost-international-use-of-chinese-yuan-202605110539 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 05:39:28 Z
[18] WTI Price Forecast: Returns above 20-day EMA as Trump dismisses Iran's response URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-returns-above-20-day-ema-as-trump-dismisses-irans-response-202605110538 Published: Mon, 11 May 2026 05:38:02 Z
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Iran judiciary seizes properties linked to football legend Ali Karimi Time: 2026-05-11T07:42:08.856Z
[2] South Korea vows response to attack on cargo ship Time: 2026-05-11T06:57:31.232Z
[3] Tanker crossed Hormuz on Iran-designated route - IRGC media Time: 2026-05-11T06:32:19.530Z
[4] Iran is on economic life support, must negotiate, US lawmaker says Time: 2026-05-11T06:22:11.346Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled