Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-06 11:29:24 ET
Market Status
Regime: N/A | Score: 0/100 (N/A) |
Insufficient data for leading/lagging analysis.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.11)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $732.06 | 50 SMA $681.62 | 200 SMA $671.87 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $717.4
- QQQ: $692.29 | 50 SMA $615.55 | 200 SMA $605.24 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $674.11
- IWM: $285.99 | 50 SMA $260.45 | 200 SMA $248.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $280.48
- VIX: 17.24 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.350%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $732.06 ▼ | 72.09 | 43.8 | $717.40 | Bearish | 0.37 |
| QQQ | $692.29 ▲ | 78.88 | 50.2 | $674.11 | Bearish | 0.41 |
| IWM | $285.99 ▲ | 69.55 | 35.3 | $280.48 | Bearish | 0.37 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.24 ▲ | 46.19 | 41.1 | $11.01 | Neutral | 1.13 |
| TNX | 43.50 ▼ | 65.73 | 25.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $431.16 ▼ | 33.99 | 23.9 | $419.14 | Neutral | 0.64 |
| DXY | 98.01 ▲ | 46.89 ▲ | 27.9 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $69.97 ▼ | 36.64 | 16.7 | $66.55 | Neutral | 0.56 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.77% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 57.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 27/28 |
| Technology | 70.8% | 46/65 |
| Financials | 70.6% | 48/68 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 16/24 |
| Industrials | 61.2% | 41/67 |
| Energy | 60.0% | 12/20 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Consumer Staples | 47.1% | 16/34 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 45.8% | 27/59 |
| Health Care | 35.2% | 19/54 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 8/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $95.39 ▼ (5d: -9.2% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $102.13 ▼ | Spread: $6.74 ▲
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.4400/gal ▼
- Heating Oil: $3.8000/gal ▼
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.13/bbl ▼ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.05 ▼
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.40 ▼
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.824 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.808 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | -0.647 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.786 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.78
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 ▲ (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,500,006.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,438,683.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.96 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $215.2B ▲
- Gamma Call Wall: $730 | Put Wall: $720 (Spot: $732.06)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -101,440 contracts (Z +0.80, as of 2026-04-28)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.6% (as of 2026-04-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (no triggers)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.35% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.75 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.01 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.95 ▲
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 82.0% | Cut 13.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.67% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 41/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6699.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $981.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,717B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,284B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,236B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,247B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $81,422 (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- No active alerts.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.01%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change(Apr): 109 vs Est. 118 (MISS) | Prev: 61
- Crude Oil Inventories: -2.313 vs Est. -3.400 (BEAT) | Prev: -6.234
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -0.648 | Prev: -0.796
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.9% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓1.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓1.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑4.0% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.19 (↑0.8% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (8):
[1] USD: Peace progress and Oil slide weigh - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-peace-progress-and-oil-slide-weigh-mufg-202605061457 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 14:57:32 Z
[2] SEK: Positive real rates support currency outlook - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sek-positive-real-rates-support-currency-outlook-bbh-202605061443 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 14:43:47 Z
[3] Fed's Musalem: Inflation is meaningfully above target URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/feds-musalem-inflation-is-meaningfully-above-target-202605061443 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 14:43:27 Z
[4] EUR/JPY declines as stronger Yen on intervention risks offsets ECB tightening expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-declines-as-stronger-yen-on-intervention-risks-offsets-ecb-tightening-expectations-202605061435 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 14:35:33 Z
[5] QXO is sitting on a trendline that has held for over a year: Here is what comes next URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/qxo-is-sitting-on-a-trendline-that-has-held-for-over-a-year-here-is-what-comes-next-202605061432 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 14:32:58 Z
[6] United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at -2.314M, above forecasts (-2.8M) in May 1 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-eia-crude-oil-stocks-change-came-in-at-2314m-above-forecasts-28m-in-may-1-202605061430 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 14:30:02 Z
[7] DXY: Asymmetric downside into payrolls - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dxy-asymmetric-downside-into-payrolls-td-securities-202605061426 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 14:26:15 Z
[8] Gold surges as Middle East peace hopes crush Oil and the US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-surges-as-middle-east-peace-hopes-crush-oil-and-the-us-dollar-202605061147 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 14:19:57 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled