Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-06 10:21:09 ET
Market Status
Regime: N/A | Score: 0/100 (N/A) |
Insufficient data for leading/lagging analysis.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.09)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $729.86 | 50 SMA $681.62 | 200 SMA $671.87 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $717.4
- QQQ: $688.42 | 50 SMA $615.55 | 200 SMA $605.24 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $665.85
- IWM: $284.02 | 50 SMA $260.45 | 200 SMA $248.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $281.03
- VIX: 16.94 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.358%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $729.86 ▼ | 72.09 | 43.8 | $717.40 | Bearish | 0.36 |
| QQQ | $688.42 ▼ | 78.88 | 50.2 | $665.85 | Bearish | 0.48 |
| IWM | $284.02 ▼ | 69.55 | 35.3 | $281.03 | Neutral | 0.55 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.94 ▲ | 46.19 | 41.1 | $11.01 | Neutral | 1.13 |
| TNX | 43.58 ▼ | 65.73 | 25.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $432.79 ▲ | 33.99 | 23.9 | $419.13 | Neutral | 0.62 |
| DXY | 97.99 ▲ | 46.61 ▲ | 28.2 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $70.10 ▼ | 36.64 | 16.7 | $56.01 | Neutral | 0.54 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.01%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 58.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.2%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 491
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.3% | 26/27 |
| Financials | 71.2% | 47/66 |
| Technology | 70.8% | 46/65 |
| Energy | 70.0% | 14/20 |
| Materials | 65.2% | 15/23 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 11/20 |
| Industrials | 54.7% | 35/64 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 49.1% | 28/57 |
| Consumer Staples | 47.1% | 16/34 |
| Utilities | 41.4% | 12/29 |
| Health Care | 33.3% | 18/54 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $95.63 ▼ (5d: -9.0% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $102.48 ▼ | Spread: $6.85 ▲
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.4400/gal ▼
- Heating Oil: $3.8000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.89/bbl ▲ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.87 ▲
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.41 ▲
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.824 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.808 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | -0.647 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | N/A | N/A |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.78
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 ▲ (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 797,035.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 673,347.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.84 ▲ (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $107.3B ▲
- Gamma Call Wall: $730 | Put Wall: $720 (Spot: $729.86)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -101,440 contracts (Z +0.80, as of 2026-04-28)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.6% (as of 2026-04-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (no triggers)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.36% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.76 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 97.99 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.94 ▼
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 82.0% | Cut 13.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.67% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 41/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6699.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $981.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,717B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,264B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,183B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $81,490 (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- No active alerts.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +0.98%
- Median Return: +1.46%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change(Apr): 109 vs Est. 118 (MISS) | Prev: 61
- Crude Oil Inventories: ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.9% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.73 (↓2.5% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓1.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑4.0% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.19 (↑0.8% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (6):
[1] EUR/GBP steadies as markets assess UK political risks and ongoing US-Iran diplomacy URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-steadies-as-markets-assess-uk-political-risks-and-ongoing-us-iran-diplomacy-202605061412 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 14:12:10 Z
[2] ECB: Weak Eurozone PMIs reinforce stagflation risk - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-weak-eurozone-pmis-reinforce-stagflation-risk-bny-202605061407 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 14:07:57 Z
[3] Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a came in at 57.7, above forecasts (49.9) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-ivey-purchasing-managers-index-sa-came-in-at-577-above-forecasts-499-in-april-202605061400 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 14:00:03 Z
[4] USD/CAD: Technical downtrend favors Canadian Dollar - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-technical-downtrend-favors-canadian-dollar-scotiabank-202605061341 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 13:41:14 Z
[5] Latest US proposal to Iran contains some unacceptable provisions - Tasnim News Agency URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/latest-us-proposal-to-iran-contains-some-unacceptable-provisions-tasnim-news-agency-202605061329 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 13:29:45 Z
[6] USD/JPY: Recovery risks for carry trades - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-recovery-risks-for-carry-trades-societe-generale-202605061318 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 13:18:47 Z
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] France and partners able to secure Hormuz Strait - Elysee Time: 2026-05-06T14:11:46.197Z
[2] Israel unaware of US plan to end Hormuz operation - GLZ Time: 2026-05-06T14:07:25.952Z
[3] US, Iran close in on memorandum to end war - CNN Time: 2026-05-06T13:53:42.426Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled